When I’ve been on the money lately, the wins have been sweat-free. Unfortunately, we can say the same of my losses.
Last week, UNLV cruised past its team total of 42.5 early in the third quarter of its blowout win over Utah State. Buffalo not only covered as a nine-point home dog, it won outright over Toledo. As for the Coastal-James Madison game, that was a clear misread on my part. James Madison thrashed the Chants, scoring 32 unanswered points to end the game.
This week, I’m feeling confident in my three-pack of picks.
We’ll start in Naptown by fading the wagon battleship that is Navy. Then we'll head west to fade one of the nation’s worst defenses in Logan, Utah, before going down south just in time to squeeze into the last pew for the wake of Will Hall in Hattiesburg.
Mike Calabrese's College Football Group of 5 Week 8 Parlay
- Charlotte +17.5
- New Mexico Team Total Over 39.5
- Arkansas State -6.5
Parlay Odds: +585 (FanDuel)
Charlotte vs. Navy Pick
Welcome to the Deshawn Purdie era. Biff Poggi wanted to give Purdie — an impressive freshman out of Baltimore — some snaps this season.
Well, the future is now for the 49ers.
In Purdie’s last two starts, Charlotte is 2-0 straight up. Both were moneyline upsets and both featured a rejuvenated 49ers rushing attack.
In those two games, Charlotte scored 76 points and ran up 821 yards of offense. The running game popped against East Carolina, as Charlotte finished with 311 yards on the ground and six touchdowns.
The question of the day in Annapolis on Saturday: Can the 49ers move it on the ground against Navy? The Middies are 74th in Rush EPA and currently sit outside the top 100 in stuff rate.
When they've faced really strong running games, these Servicemen have struggled. Memphis went for 274 yards and four scores on the ground earlier this season against Navy.
Now, Charlotte is a far cry from Memphis, but it's simply playing too well offensively with Purdie as the starter to be ignored.
Speaking of the quarterback position, could we see Max Brown or Trexler Ivey in this game? Perhaps, but Ivey has flashed this season and this offense isn’t built around dynamic quarterback play. All that’s being asked of their quarterbacks is to protect the football, and with Purdie in charge, the 49ers are doing just that.
Historically, I’m anti laying this many points with a Service Academy, but this play is more than just an auto-fade on a three-score option favorite.
There’s now half a season's worth of film on Drew Cronic’s Wing T-Triple hybrid. While they’ve caught opponents off guard, Charlotte’s staff should have some answers for what Cronic is dialing up.
And Charlotte isn’t a complete mess against the run as it's been in previous years. The 49ers are inside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate, Line Yards, stuff rate and rush EPA.
Plus, they've moved inside the top 40 in Havoc, which is where this game swings.
With limited possessions, turnovers are worth their weight in gold when catching north of 17 points.
Charlotte is dead even in turnover margin, but I think its impressive Havoc numbers indicate it could be due for a bit more luck. If the 49ers can finish this game 0, +1 or better in the turnover margin, they’ll be within two scores by the time the clock hits triple zeroes in the fourth quarter.
I would play Charlotte down to 17 flat.
Leg 1: Charlotte +17.5
New Mexico vs. Utah State Pick
While this total may seem astronomical at 78.5, it’s important to understand who we’re dealing with here.
New Mexico, under Bronco Mendenhall, is incredibly impressive offensively. The Lobos, a program left for dead under Danny Gonzales, are suddenly a fun watch.
New Mexico is averaging over 35 points per game. And this isn’t due to ideal field position or turnover luck, it's seventh in total offense.
A big reason for this turnaround is that the Lobos have found their generational talent at quarterback. The folks in Albuquerque haven’t seen a signal caller like Devon Dampier in their lifetime.
He's accounted for three or more touchdowns in half of New Mexico’s games this season. He’s a dynamic rusher, and they’ve done a tremendous job protecting him.
No team has given up fewer sacks this season. In fact, Dampier has only been sacked once through six games. The Lobos are always operating ahead of the sticks and staying on schedule.
Does Utah State have the defense to throw New Mexico off its game? Absolutely not. This is the worst defense in America. Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings agree with me, placing the Aggies 134th out of 134 defenses.
Pro Football Focus ranks them in the bottom five in both total defense and run defense. And when it comes to explosive plays, everyone wants to play Utah State. The Aggies give up three plays of 30+ yards per scrimmage per game (130th).
Dampier is going to cook in this one.
I’m on the Lobos’ team total over 39.5 in this one, and I would play it all the way up to the edge of six touchdowns at 41.5.
If they were playing a bad defense that was protected by a plodding, ball-control offense, I’d be slightly concerned. But Utah State’s offense operates at warp speed. The Aggies snap it every 21.3 seconds, the third-fastest pace in the country.
Whether they’re scoring, punting, or turning the ball over, they’ll do it quickly, which is music to my ears with this team total over.
Leg 2: New Mexico Team Total Over 39.5
Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss Pick
Let’s get this out of the way off the top: Southern Miss has quit. The Golden Eagles have suffered four straight double-digit losses. Hall is 4-14 SU in his last 18 games. He’s essentially coaching out the string in the final year of his four-year deal with USM.
Everyone that's played USM this season has seemingly gotten their offense back on track. South Florida finally got everyone rowing in the same direction, scoring 49 on USM. Jacksonville State took flight after beating the Golden Eagles 44-7. Even UL Monroe’s work-in-progress offense crushed Hall’s team by 17.
This is the team you need to play to feel better about your offense.
Another guarantee in this game is that when Arkansas State gets into the red zone, it's getting points. The Golden Eagles give up scores on 87% of their opponent's trips and are rated a bottom-15 team in coverage in the red zone.
This is critical for an Arkansas State offense that's just 80th in quality drives. It can’t waste red zone trips, and it won’t in this game.
So, why are we getting this price? Because Arkansas State was blown out by Iowa State, which is now ninth in the AP Poll, and lost handily to Texas State, which could very well win the Sun Belt.
That’s an overreaction, in my opinion. Yes, the Red Wolves' advanced stats look lousy across the board, but a lot of that has to do with who they've played and not who they are.
The Red Wolves still have weapons for Jaylen Raynor, like Ja’Quez Cross, who just went off against Texas State for 165 all-purpose yards. Also, wide receiver Corey Rucker has three games with six or more receptions.
When it all clicks, as it did against Tulsa and South Alabama in recent wins, they can run up the yardage. Against the Golden Hurricane and Jaguars, they combined for 807 total yards. I’m expecting north of 400 yards and 31 points from the Red Wolves here.
I’m not a big fan of psychoanalyzing teams, but it’s worth mentioning one angle in this game. This team still has bowl aspirations, and the messaging inside its locker room should be simple on that front.
The brutality of the Red Wolves' schedule is behind them. What lies ahead are doormats, as Southern Miss, Troy and Old Dominion can all be beaten. Win those three and 6-6 is good enough to go bowling. So, the season is not lost, assuming the offense turns it around.
I’m buying low here and believing that they do it.
One final nugget that's noteworthy when hoping to avoid a backdoor cover: Havoc. Southern Miss is 134th in Havoc allowed.
Sacks, tackles for loss, forced fumbles and interceptions are all on the menu every single time the Golden Eagles snap the ball. That makes it difficult to string together successful drives when looking to make it tight late in the game.
I would play Arkansas State right up to the edge of 10 points, which is why I love it laying the 6.5 below the key number of a single touchdown.
Leg 3: Arkansas State -6.5
