We’ve reached the end of the line in the 2023 regular season, and 10 teams have punched their tickets to Group of Five conference title games.
This weekend will feature a clown car of backup quarterbacks, but there’s potential for some upsets as only one Group of Five matchup features a spread above eight points.
So, I’m mixing and matching in my final college football Group of Five parlay, choosing one underdog to win outright, one favorite on the alternate line, and one ATS wagon to cash one more time.
When these two teams met in the regular season, it was a see-saw first-half battle.
New Mexico State rode out to a 17-13 lead, but Liberty closed the second quarter strong, scoring 10 points in the final 2:33 seconds of the first half. Liberty played keep away in the second half, and the Aggies turned their four possessions into a punt, a fumble, an interception and a turnover on downs.
Overall, Kaidon Salter couldn’t have outplayed fan favorite Diego Pavia more. Pavia couldn’t hit water if he were standing in a boat, and he turned it over three times with two interceptions and a lost fumble.
Salter, meanwhile, was locked in from the jump and accounted for four total touchdowns and 319 total yards against just one turnover.
I believe New Mexico State has been playing as well as any team in the country since that early season loss to the Flames.
I’m not the only one who thinks so.
Head coach Jamey Chadwell said the same thing this week:
“New Mexico State is arguably playing the best football of any team in the country, that’s Power 5, FBS, anywhere. They are playing with tremendous confidence.”
Speaking of Chadwell, there’s smoke surrounding the rising coaching star.
There are four Power 5 openings presently (Duke, Houston, Oregon State, Syracuse), and Chadwell already made a coaching jump last December. On Dec. 2, 2022, he made a statement to the media, saying, “I want to let everybody know that I haven’t signed any contract to go to another place.”
He was announced as Liberty’s head coach less than 48 hours after that presser.
Chadwell is a sought-after coaching commodity, so those rumors can impact how he, his staff and his team respond on Friday night.
But let’s not bury the lede here.
New Mexico State is a covering machine, now 10-2-1 ATS, with an eight-game streak riding into this one. The Aggies upset Auburn on the road as 25-point underdogs.
They have a brilliant head coach, a feisty dual-threat quarterback in Pavia (four games with 200 or more passing yards and 60 or more rushing), and a defense that makes you earn it (20th in Explosiveness allowed, eighth in red-zone defense).
I see New Mexico State keeping their hot streak alive at the window by keeping the game inside of ten points in a four-quarter battle.
Play: New Mexico State +11
The RedHawks have a chance in this game because they trot out one of the nation’s best defenses. Throw a dart at a printout of the RedHawks' advanced defensive metrics, and you’ll likely hit a top-20 ranking.
Here’s a tasting menu of what the RedHawks have been cooking up in 2023:
- Fifth in explosiveness allowed
- Seventh in passing touchdowns allowed (11)
- Eighth in scoring defense (16.3 PPG)
- 15th in red-zone TDs Allowed (16)
In their first meeting with Toledo, they held the Rockets to 21 points and shut them out in the second half. They forced seven straight punts before the Rockets kneeled out the clock.
So, why is this line hovering above a touchdown?
Brett Gabbert is out for the season, and without their true QB1, the Miami offense has been stuck in the mud. It scored 19.5 points per game across its last three while facing Akron (91st in SP+ Defense), Buffalo (88th) and Ball State (63rd).
They’ll likely struggle to score more than 14 against a Toledo team that's fantastic on the back end.
I still think this line is too rich, given the RedHawk defense and Toledo’s propensity to let lesser teams hang around. San José State, Northern Illinois, Ball State and Bowling Green all stayed within a touchdown of the Rockets, which scares me in the MAC Title Game.
Therefore, I’d rather play an alternate line down to -3 instead of laying the full eight or the money line.
I’ll be adding this one on to most of my weekend plays as a parlay sweetener.
Play: Alt Line — Toledo -3.5 (-203)
Let me start by saying that I believe the wrong team is favored here.
UNLV has consistently exceeded expectations this season, while Boise has fought through injuries, player defections, and a mid-season firing of their head coach. And now the Rebels get to play arguably the biggest game in program history on their home field.
That has the makings of an electric atmosphere and an inspired effort from a team that isn’t winning with smoke and mirrors.
On the field, UNLV has a perfectly balanced offense called by wunderkind offensive coordinator Brennan Marion. His famed GoGo Offense has produced three running backs with over 440 rushing yards and at least five touchdowns each.
On the perimeter, he’s turned Ricky White into a superstar (1,300 yards, 17.3 YPC).
And he’s done it all with a backup quarterback who is rounding into form down the stretch. Jayden Maiava has four starts with a QBR north of 83 in his last eight games. And he’s been clutch at home, accounting for eight touchdowns against just one interception at Allegiant Stadium.
Maiava can run this offense the way Marion wants it run, and he’s throwing into an awful Boise secondary. The Broncos’ backend ranks 80th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 112th in pass explosiveness allowed. They rank 104th in Pro Football Focus's Coverage grades.
UNLV has a significant advantage through the air.
When Boise has the football, it’s all about Ashton Jeanty. They have severe limitations in the passing game with Taylen Green and a depleted receiving corps, so Jeanty must put up huge numbers for Boise to win.
He’s been banged up in the second half of the season, and UNLV is decent, by MWC standards, against the run. The Rebels rank 39th nationally in Rush Explosiveness allowed and 53rd in Rush Success Rate allowed.
If Jeanty simply accounts for 120 total yards and not 200, I love UNLV’s chances here.
Play: UNLV ML (+120)
Calabrese's Week 14 College Football Group of Five Parlay
- New Mexico State +11
- Alt Line — Toledo -3.5 (-203)
- UNLV ML
Odds: +526 at DraftKings
Use the Action Network’s DraftKings promo code to get a signup bonus when betting Calabrese's Championship Week Group of Five Parlay.
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