Like we do each week, we'll give out our favorite moneyline underdogs on the Week 12 college football card. Bet one that catches your eye, throw all three in a longshot parlay or just absorb some additional insight ahead of the weekend.
Two of the plays always come from Collin Wilson and me on The Action Network Colleges podcast — and college football contributor Locky Lockerson will provide the other.
We got two of three to the window last week with Tennessee and Temple, both at +180, bringing our YTD record to 13-19 +8.35 units.
Let's move on to Week 12 with three late afternoon moneyline dogs that can hopefully bark for us. If you're feeling lucky, a moneyline parlay of all three pays slightly better than 30-1.
Stuckey: Wake Forest +235 (vs. Pitt)
- Spread: Pittsburgh -6.5
- Over/Under: 60.5
- Time: Noon ET
- TV: RSN
It's a pretty similar spot on the surface for both teams. Pitt comes off a huge win over Virginia Tech in which it somehow averaged almost 14 yards per play. The Panthers won't be lacking motivation, as they can clinch the ACC Coastal division with a win.
Wake Forest also comes in off a win, as it upset N.C. State to keep its hope of reaching a bowl game alive. The Demon Deacons will certainly have plenty of motivation in their last home game of the season where they can clinch a bowl appearance with a victory.
New quarterback Jamie Newman appears to have rejuvenated the Wake Forest offense. Don't forget that Newman likely would have started Week 1 if he didn't get hurt. The sophomore quarterback also brings another dynamic to the offense with his wheels — and Pitt has struggled to contain dual-threat quarterbacks this season.
On the other side of the ball, Wake Forest has struggled to defend explosiveness and opposing running backs, which does spell trouble against Pitt. However, I simply think this line is too high and should be closer to a coin flip. I see this playing out similar to Pitt's road game against North Carolina — a shootout the Heels pulled out for their only win of the season.
It also doesn't hurt that Wake had a few extra days of preparation after playing last Thursday night. Oh, and we get Greg Dortch on our side.
Locky: Tennessee +190 (vs. Missouri)
- Spread: Missouri -6
- Over/Under: 57
- Time: 3:30
- TV: CBS
After UNC and Tennessee made my final cut last week, I ended up giving you the Tar Heels — who covered in a close loss. Thankfully, Stuckey was all over the Vols.
I won't pass on the Vols this week, as head coach Jeremy Pruitt's bunch continues to improve as the players learn his system. The betting market can severely underrate teams like Tennessee that came on late, since early-season data will skew the numbers negatively. Most bettors seem to arrive late to the party on these teams that really thrive over the final few weeks, building momentum into bowl practices and next season.
The unit that's making the most strides? The defense, which now owns its highest S&P+ ranking since early September after a blowout win over UTEP. The rapidly improving Tennessee defense now gets a crack at Missouri quarterback Drew Lock, who looked mediocre at best for large stretches against Vanderbilt last week.
Tennessee will also not only own the special teams and coaching advantage, it will play its third straight home game in Knoxville. I'm generally not a big "motivation" guy, but Missouri has already become bowl eligible and can't win its division. This looks like a tough spot on paper for the Tigers to get up for.
Meanwhile, the Vols are still fighting for bowl eligibility. It didn't really factor into my decision, but we'll call the situational edge a nice bonus.
Collin Wilson: UNLV +220 (at Hawaii)
- Spread: Hawaii -7
- Over/Under: 70.5
- Time: 11 p.m. ET
- TV: Spectrum PPV/Stadium App
If you listened to our podcast or read my CW9 column, you know I'm all about the Rebels this weekend.
Simply put, this is a fade of a Hawaii team in free-fall mode against a UNLV team that is still fighting for its head coach Tony Sanchez, who owns a 3-0 record against the Rainbow Warriors during his tenure in Las Vegas.
While UNLV comes off an enormous upset (as 24-point underdogs) over San Diego State, Hawaii has lost four straight by a combined 113 points. Excitement did grow around the program when it got off to a 6-1 start, but let's look at Hawaii's wins this season:
- Colorado State
- Navy
- Wyoming
- San Jose State (5OT)
- Duquesne
- Rice
There's nothing impressive about that collection of wins, especially considering how much worse the first three teams have been compared to expectations.
By almost any metric, Hawaii has one of the worst defenses in the country. One of those many weak areas is defending rush explosiveness, which UNLV can fully exploit, especially now that it has star QB Armani Rogers available.
