For the past three seasons on our college football betting podcast (now Big Bets on Campus), Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each Saturday's slate.
Slow start so far this year, but I can really only blame myself for a few duds. Collin came up a few points shy once again with a juicy underdog in Western Kentucky. If only the Hilltoppers didn't punt in Indiana territory down two in the fourth quarter. Let's never speak of my FAU pick again.
It's time to get things moving in the right direction in Week 5 with a pair of underdogs looking to pick up wins on the road against their respective rivals for the first time since the 90s.
- 2018-20: 39-67 +5.1 units
- 2021: 2-6 -3.35 units
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pays a bit over 5-1 odds.
Stuckey: Nevada +170
- Spread: Boise State -4
- Over/Under: 59.5
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 2
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: FS1
- Location: Boise, ID
The bye week should do wonders for Nevada in preparation for this game, especially considering head coach Jay Norvell's bunch had some things to clean up. The rest and recovery also won't hurt after playing two Power Five programs on the road in the first three weeks.
Plus, they have tape on how Boise State finally found a way to get its run game going a bit last week by calling more exotic runs with its non-running backs.
Boise has really struggled along the defensive line in terms of both generating pressure and stopping the run. That leaves the Broncos in a bind as they can't simply sit back with six defensive backs to take away Nevada's explosive Air Raid passing attack like Kansas State did.
If it sends more help against a Nevada rushing attack that could finally get going here, Boise's issues with giving up explosive plays could rear their ugly head against a team that can connect on them as well as anybody.
On the other side of the ball, Boise's offensive line has also really struggled to generate a push, which means Nevada might not get gashed on the ground in a matchup of two fronts that rank 128th nationally in Line Yards. As long as the Pack can contain wide receiver Khalil Shakir, they can contain this Boise offense.
I'm trusting potential NFL first-round quarterback Carson Strong off of a bye in a matchup of two teams that have had issues in the trenches to start the season. I'll gladly buy this price in a clash of two teams that I power rate essentially even.
Nevada should have a very good chance to get its first win over Boise State since 2010 when Collin Kaepernick was under center — and first in Boise since 1997.
Wilson: Auburn +130
- Spread: LSU -3
- Over/Under: 57
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 25
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Location: Baton Rouge, LA
There may not be two Power 5 head coaches who need a division win this weekend more than LSU’s Ed Orgeron and Auburn’s Bryan Harsin, who face each other in Baton Rouge in a battle of the Tigers.
Under a new administration, Auburn has already fired a member of its staff with wide receiver coach Cornelius Williams getting the boot. It still remains to be seen who will line up under center between Bo Nix and TJ Finley, who came in for Nix late in a comeback victory over Georgia State last week. Even if Nix gets the start, one bad series could lead to the LSU transfer getting the nod in his return to Baton Rouge.
LSU has become a one dimensional offense with no running game to support quarterback Max Johnson. The Tigers are calling pass on an increasing number of snaps with no push in the trench or breakaway speed for running backs for Corey Kiner or Tyrion Davis Price. The LSU offensive line that takes the field against Auburn will feature five offensive lineman that have played a combined nine snaps together.
Although Kayshon Boutte and John Bech have become reliable third down targets, the one dimensional offense plays into Auburn’s greatest strength. Roger McCreary is the fifth-best coverage defender in FBS, while fellow defensive back Smoke Monday ranks in the top-100.
LSU will have a battle in the defensive trench against running back Tank Bigsby, who should have success on the ground here. However, Nix and Finley should also find success against a secondary missing one of the best corners in college football in Derek Stingley. The defense under new coordinator Daronte Jones has subpar grades in tackling, an indication that explosive plays may be in the mix for Auburn.
I see enough advantages on both sides of the ball for the Tigers of Auburn to get their first win in Baton Rouge in two decades.
