For the past four seasons on our college football betting podcast (now Big Bets on Campus), Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each Saturday's slate.
After a slow start to the season, we finally got things back on track last week with a pair of outright underdog winners in Nevada and Auburn, who each picked up a victory against a conference rival on the road for the first time since the 1990s.
- 2018-20: 39-67 +5.1 units
- 2021: 4-6 -0.35 units
We will try to build on last week's momentum with another pair of road underdogs this week. If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pays just over 5-1 odds.
Stuckey: Wyoming +180
- Spread: Air Force -5
- Over/Under: 47
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 9
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV: CBSSN
- Location: Colorado Springs, CO
We have a big Mountain West showdown between undefeated Wyoming and one-loss Air Force with major implications for the division at stake.
I'm not sold on Air Force; they may be a bit shorthanded on Saturday and have played just one team ranked inside the top-100 so far this season. Plus, this Wyoming defense has the players on its front seven who can slow down the Falcons' triple-option attack as many still on this defense did back in 2019, holding Air Force to under three yards per carry on 56 attempts.
On the other side of the ball, Air Force's run defense has been strong, which is important against Wyoming's run-heavy offense. However, I think we see Wyoming open up the playbook here to take advantage of a vulnerable pass defense, while also catching the Falcons by surprise. Wyoming has a new offensive coordinator this year and the goal was to open up the offense some more.
Head coach Craig Bohl has hinted after each win this season that they've intentionally not been showing much ahead of conference play. This would be the game to unleash those new looks that Air Force won’t expect.
Also, Air Force usually has a greater home-field advantage due to the elevation in Colorado Springs, but that won't be the case this week against a Wyoming team that actually plays in higher elevation in Laramie.
This should be a physical battle between two teams with similar identities. Each play slow and rank in the top-20 in rush rate. In a game I project slightly under a field goal, I'll gladly side with the Pokes here. The extra week should also help here in regards to preparing for the triple-option.
Wilson: LSU +120
- Spread: Kentucky -3
- Over/Under: 51
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 9
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: SECN
- Location: Lexington, KY
After going against LSU last weekend as a field goal home favorite for our money line underdog, it's time to buy the dip on them as a 3-point road underdog. In my opinion, the best buy-low / sell-high spot on the board for Week 6 will come in Lexington.
Kentucky comes off a home win over Florida for the first time since the 1980s. Can the Cats reproduce that energy against an LSU team in desperation mode? I have my doubts.
The Wildcats will try to avoid a hangover against an LSU defense that ranks fourth against rush explosiveness. That's key against UK's run-reliant attack. The Tigers early season mistakes on defense are still holding down the advanced numbers a bit, but they still rank 30th in Line Yards.
They can compete in the trenches and the pass rush has been getting tantalizingly close to making some big plays that we could finally see get home on Saturday night.
As for the LSU offense, it's a one dimensional passing attack since there is no run game to speak of. The Tigers rank dead last nationally in Rushing Success Rate. Against Auburn, they threw it 49 times and had just 22 rush attempts.
You can count on more of the same moving forward as they lean on wide receivers Jack Bech and Kayshon Boutte, who have anchored third down conversions for quarterback Max Johnson.
That approach may also work in LSU's favor this week against a Kentucky defense that ranks 90th in Passing Success Rate. The Cats don't give up explosive plays (20th in Pass Explosiveness), but LSU should be able to move the chains with a short passing attack.
And when they get into scoring position, expect results. The LSU offense has been on fire in red zone opportunities, ranking 11th in Finishing Drives, highlighted by a rank of first in the nation in red zone scoring. The Tigers have scored on all 14 attempts, nine of which ended in the end zone.
- LSU is going to move the ball.
- LSU is going to convert in scoring opportunities.
Outside of the situational spot and advantage in the passing game, the Tigers should also hold the edge on special teams. Look for LSU to pull off the mini-upset and hand Kentucky its first loss of the season.
