Each week, we will each give out our favorite moneyline underdog on the college football Saturday slate. You can play them straight, throw them in a longshot parlay or just read our reasoning for additional insight.
Two will always be provided by Stuckey and Collin on The Action Network Colleges podcast — and college football contributor Locky Lockerson will provide the other. This week, we have a bonus contributor as Peter Jennings gives his three favorite Saturday moneyline underdogs at the end of this piece.
We went 0-3 last weekend, which will happen with these from time to time. Let's get into our Week 5 moneylines, starting with Georgia State. If you feel like really rolling the dice, a moneyline parlay of all three pays close to 45-1.
YTD: 4-8 -1.55 units
>> Check out Sports Insights’ Bet Signals to track sharp action for college football’s entire Week 5 slate.
Ken Barkley: Georgia State +220
- Spread: UL Monroe -7
- Over/Under: 62
- Time: 2 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN+
Sun Belt conference openers happen Saturday for a lot of teams, so why not celebrate this bastion of dicey-ness by selecting only the choicest cut of awful?
Georgia State hasn't covered a number this month. After barely getting by FCS Kennesaw State to open the year, the Panthers have gotten wrecked by just about everyone — N.C. State, Memphis, Western Michigan, you name it. It sure sounds like rock bottom to me from a power ratings perspective.
Meanwhile, UL-Monroe hasn't done much to earn any confidence. Its offense was expected to be dynamic, but has been pedestrian; a defense that was expected to be awful has been just that at 111th in S&P+.
I think everyone just keeps waiting for the offense to wake up, and maybe better days are ahead for the Warhawks, but this number is all out of whack.
Georgia State closed +9 at Pinnacle at home against Western Michigan last week, and now stays at home, and is getting almost the same number of points from Monroe? Western Michigan has significantly more talent than UL Monroe (although both are pretty poorly coached). This line is simply too much of an overreaction to Georgia State's recent results.
Gimme Georgia State in a game that should be lined closer to +4.
Stuckey: Kent State +250
- Spread: Ball State -7.5
- Over/Under: 63
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- TV channel: ESPN+
We have our first MACTION moneyline underdog of the year in a battle of two teams that finished 2-10 last year and started 1-3 this year.
I'm not sure what Ball State has done to warrant this spread other than hang with Notre Dame. The Cardinals are coming off a home loss to a dreadful Western Kentucky team that had lost its first three games of the season (including one at home to FCS Maine). Ball State was ravaged by injuries last year, but this is still a bad football team.
Don't get me wrong — Kent State is also a bad football team. But this program is on the rise under head coach Sean Lewis. Lewis has implemented an up-tempo, spread attack led by quarterback Woody Barrett, who transferred from Auburn.
The Golden Flashes play fast and aggressive on both sides of the ball and should have a shot to pull off this upset. They also come into this game with experience against three Power 5 schools in Ole Miss, Penn State and Illinois.
I have these two teams pretty evenly rated, so getting seven points and a +250 moneyline looks good to me.
Collin Wilson: San Jose State +310
- Spread: Hawaii -10
- Over/Under: 65
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV channel: Spectrum PPV/Stadium App
If you read our staff favorite bets column or my weekly best bets piece, you know I love the Spartans this weekend — and I'm not referring to Michigan State.
This is a beautiful situational spot for San Jose State, which enjoyed a bye after hanging with Oregon in Eugene. Meanwhile, Hawaii traveled 5,000 miles to play Army and then 5,000 miles back for a home date with Duquesne over the past two weeks. The Warriors might be a little drained for this matchup on the mainland.
After digging a little deeper into San Jose State, its defense is significantly better than I assumed it would be heading into the season. I think the Spartans can do enough to shut down Hawaii's run and shoot offense (which teams now have tape on) to pull off this upset.
