It's time to dive into college football Week 3 on Saturday, Sept. 14.
For the seventh straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
In Week 1, we hit both of our picks of USC over LSU and North Texas over South Alabama. If you parlayed those two together, you saw a payout of just over 6-1.
For Week 2, San Jose State got home for us with an outright win over Air Force, but Michigan struggled mightily in a defeat at the hands of Texas.
This week, we'll target an upset for Colorado State over Coach Prime and Colorado, as well as Hawaii on the mainland against Sam Houston.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays out a little more than 7-1.
Let's dive into our college football moneyline underdogs for Week 3.
- 2018-23: 72-114, +12.65 units
- 2024-25: 3-1, +4.08 units
College Football Moneyline Underdogs
Collin Wilson: Hawaii ML +165 at Sam Houston
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
I project Hawaii to be a small favorite here over Sam Houston.
The last time Timmy Chang got a week of rest and came to the mainland was Oct. 8, 2022. His team was a 23.5-point underdog to San Diego State and nearly won the game outright. He knows what to do with a week off before making the trip to the mainland.
Plus, there's a huge Offensive Havoc issue for Sam Houston here. The Bearkats rank 122nd in Havoc Allowed and have given up 16 tackles for loss, three fumbles and two interceptions. Even in a 20-point win over Rice, Sam Houston gave up seven sacks and 10 tackles for loss.
On the other side, that's been Hawaii's calling card this year. The Rainbow Warriors sit 12th in Defensive Havoc with 17 tackles for loss and 12 passes defensed.
The Bearkats also run a lot of inside zone with running back John Gentry, who has produced only one run over 10 yards this season, along with an average of 2.3 yards after contact. Those aren't the kind of numbers you're looking for from a running back.
Now, he has to face a Hawaii defense that ranks top-25 in Stuff Rate.
Quarterback Hunter Watson does know how to run the RPO well, and he has two explosives on the ground with an average of 5.6 yards after contact. The problem is he's the only option on the ground that has any kind of juice.
The Rainbow Warriors stuffed 14 of UCLA's 23 rushing attempts in Week 1, so the Bearkats will have their hands full trying to move the ball on the ground.
This is also a huge game for a couple of Hawaii players going back to the Lone Star State. Quarterback Brayden Schager hails from Dallas, Texas, wide receiver Pofele Ashlock is from Euless, and cornerback Cam Stone — the leader of the secondary — grew up in Angleton.
With the ability to stop the ground game and the motivational edge, give me Hawaii +165 on the mainland.
Stuckey: Colorado State ML +225 vs. Colorado
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 57.5 -105o / -115u | -275 |
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 57.5 -105o / -115u | +225 |
There's a lot of variance here in a game with a high total.
It's no secret that Colorado has proven to be the same team it was last season — no defense, no offensive line, no run game.
Now, the passing attack led by Shedeur Sanders is going to have a lot of success here. Colorado State lost a cornerback to the NFL and lost three solid pass-rushers — one to the NFL and one to graduation, while the other is still hurt and likely won't play this week.
Having no pass rush against an abysmal Colorado offensive line is going to hurt.
However, Colorado State should also have success throwing the ball. Colorado has injuries and depth concerns — and that's not even mentioning the very combustible situation in the locker room.
Rams wide receiver Tory Horton, one of my favorite players in college football, said they "should have murdered" Colorado last year. So, this will be a fun game.
I also don't know what's going on with Colorado after Shedeur essentially threw his offensive line under the bus after last week's loss to Nebraska. It could all blow up and really go south, so I'm taking a shot with the Rams.
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