Welcome to a loaded Week 7 college football slate.
For the seventh straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
In Week 6, we swept the board.
Wake Forest got home for me to open the day with an outright victory over a bad NC State team, while Collin cashed Florida in a Sunshine State victory over UCF.
If you parlayed those games together, you received a nice payday over 4-1.
As always, no matter the results, it's onto the next week. It's time to turn our attention to Week 7.
This week, I'm taking an afternoon 'dog in the Big 12, while Collin has his eyes on one of the biggest matchups of the week.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays out at over 4-1 again.
Let's dive into our college football moneyline underdogs for Week 7.
- 2018-23: 72-114, +12.65 units
- 2024-25: 6-6, +3.28 units
College Football Moneyline Underdogs for Week 7
Stuckey: Cincinnati ML +140 vs. UCF
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
I'm going to go with the quit-watch theme and target Cincinnati vs. UCF for my moneyline underdog.
First off, UCF didn't show up against Florida and lost to a Gators team that has struggled this season. The Knights allowed Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway to complete 23 of their 27 passing attempts while averaging just 2.7 yards per carry offensively.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, is still flying under the radar a bit.
The Bearcats lost to Pitt in a game they should have won after blowing a 27-6 lead. And for what it's worth, that same Pitt team is undefeated. Cincinnati simply wore down there.
Its other loss came at Texas Tech, which is now in first place in the Big 12. The Bearcats lost that game by three in a back-and-forth contest that saw all of their running backs get hurt.
Running back Corey Kiner is back this week, but Cincinnati is really going to eat in the passing attack. Brendan Sorsby has been great and owns a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 12:1.
UCF can't cover anybody and can't get pressure, so it'll really struggle to defend the Bearcats through the air. Plus, this Knights offense just looks lifeless.
Give me the 'Cats.
Collin Wilson: LSU ML +140 vs. Ole Miss
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 62 -110o / -110u | -165 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 62 -110o / -110u | +140 |
I'm going to go with LSU here in an amazing situational spot.
This is Ole Miss' seventh straight game and its third straight SEC game, including back-to-back travel after losing to Kentucky at home.
LSU, meanwhile, is coming off a bye week and has looked impressive since losing to USC to open the season.
Ole Miss hasn't had a test like that yet with a strength of schedule that ranks 81st. As we've seen, sometimes teams with a weak schedule get rocked by offenses they haven't seen before, and I think that's what we're going to see here.
Now, Ole Miss is No. 1 in Defensive Havoc this week and top-five in pass rush. However, that won't apply here because LSU ranks 11th in pass-blocking with Garrett Nussmeier being protected by two of the best offensive tackles in the nation. He'll be fine against an Ole Miss from seven that's coming for him.
What really sticks out in the Rebels' analytics is their coverage grading. Defensive coordinator Pete Golding runs a strict Cover 1. Well, Nussmeier dominates Cover 1 with a 57% Success Rate. In fact, he's completing explosives against Cover 1 23.5% of the time. It's just a powder keg that's going to be exposed.
Also, there's a bit of a run game here thanks to freshman Caden Durham.
He's running behind two of the nation's best tackles from a run-blocking perspective, and his attempts are growing game by game as he averages 4.5 yards after contact.
On the other side, Ole Miss also runs heavy tempo, which might be a mistake against an LSU team that wants to control the clock. The Tigers will be able to do just that with ease.
Plus, Ole Miss' best receiver, Tre Harris — who has more than double the number of targets as anyone else on the roster — is questionable. That would be a major loss for quarterback Jaxson Dart, who would look his way in any big moment.
Let's roll with the Tigers at home.
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