College football Week 10 is here, so let's dive into our favorite moneyline underdog bets for Saturday.
For the seventh straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
Last week, we both took Big Ten 'dogs in Michigan State on the road at Michigan and Wisconsin at home against Penn State. The Spartans lost by a possession, while the Badgers fell by two scores.
Either way, it's on to Week 10.
This week, Collin and I are both backing Big Ten 'dogs again.
I'm heading to Seattle, where I expect Washington to defend its home field in a battle between former Pac-12 foes, while Collin is taking us to State College for a top-five clash.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays out at just under 4-1.
Let's dive into our college football moneyline underdogs for Week 10.
- 2018-23: 72-114, +12.65 units
- 2024-25: 8-10, +2.08 units
College Football Moneyline Underdogs for Week 10
Collin Wilson: Penn State ML +140 vs. Ohio State
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 47 -115o / -105u | -165 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 47 -115o / -105u | +140 |
I'm going to take Penn State as my moneyline underdog here.
I believe in offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, and I believe in Beau Pribula.
I think Penn State has a lot of advantages because Kotelnicki is going to get into the offensive playbook he used at Kansas with Jalon Daniels under center. That will allow him to run some plays he hasn't been able to use with Drew Allar.
But more importantly, James Franklin said in his presser earlier this week that he told Kotelnicki things are changing this week. They're going to have a separate playbook for their Pribula, their backup quarterback, and he's going to come in and get sprinkled in every quarter.
That's big. They have faith in Pribula, and Kotelnicki has a special offensive playbook for him.
Plus, this Penn State defense is different. The Nittany Lions rank second nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards, which will be big against Ohio State's running back tandem of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson.
When it comes to the pass rush, I also don't know how Will Howard is going to deal with pressure in a raucous environment on the road.
Give me the Nittany Lions to win outright here.
Stuckey: Washington ML +105 at USC
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
The stakes are actually pretty high for this Pac-12 — I mean, Big Ten — battle in Seattle on Saturday night between a pair of 4-4 clubs.
While neither team will compete for a Big Ten championship or playoff spot this season, the Huskies probably need this game for bowl eligibility with road games at Oregon and at Penn State remaining on their schedule.
It should be a competitive game throughout with two very capable offenses, but I'm siding with the home Huskies.
Under new defensive coordinator Steve Belichick, the Huskies have suffocated opposing passing attacks, ranking in the top two nationally in both EPA and Success Rate.
That bodes well against quarterback Miller Moss, who spearheads a USC offense with one of the highest passing rates in the country
On the other side of the ball, there's a clear path to moving the ball on the USC defense.
You have to hit some run explosives — which star running back Jonah Coleman can certainly do with his 6.7 yards per carry average — and efficiently move the ball in a patient manner through the air against a secondary that excels at limiting explosive passing plays but ranks 116th in Success Rate allowed.
Well, that should work just fine for the Huskies, who have not had much explosiveness through the air but rank sixth nationally in Success Rate.
Plus, quarterback Will Rogers sees his production fall off a cliff when under pressure but is lights-out when kept clean.
That bodes well in this particular matchup against a USC defense that really struggles to generate natural pressure, especially after losing a number of key contributors throughout the season, including its best linebacker and edge rusher.
The Trojans' underlying defensive metrics also suggest potential imminent regression based on the glaring disparity between their success on late downs vs. lack thereof on the more predictive early downs.
Washington checks all of the boxes from an advanced metrics standpoint, ranking in the top 20 nationally in a myriad of categories, including net yards per play (USC is 42nd for what it's worth).
Plus, it's not like USC has lit the world on fire when it comes to doing all of the little things right. There's a reason the Trojans blew back-to-back 14-point leads against Penn State and Maryland.
Ultimately, I just don't see too much separation between these teams before even accounting for home-field advantage and potential matchup edges I see for the Huskies on both sides of the ball.
Washington also should hold a health and rest advantage after recently enjoying its bye week, while USC will be playing a game for the seventh straight week before its upcoming bye.
Therefore, I had to grab the field goal with the home pup in a game that likely comes down to the wire. Let's just hope that doesn't mean Grady Gross will have to make a kick.
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