For the seventh straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate. Welcome to our Week 4 moneyline underdog picks.
After a 2-0 week in Week 1 and a 1-1 showing in Week 2, we went 0-2 last week with Hawaii against Sam Houston and Colorado State against Colorado.
This week, we'll try to get back on track with a couple of nonconference clashes Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech and East Carolina vs. Liberty.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays out at nearly 6-1.
Let's dive into our college football moneyline underdogs for Week 4.
- 2018-23: 72-114, +12.65 units
- 2024-25: 3-3, +2.08 units
Collin Wilson: Rutgers ML +140 vs. Virginia Tech
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Virginia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
I'm going to go with the very first bet I made this week on Sunday when lines came out: Rutgers +5.5. It's down to +3.5, but I don't need the points. I like Rutgers on the moneyline against Virginia Tech.
Greg Schiano's team has an identity every single year: They don't make offensive mistakes. The Scarlet Knights lead the nation in Havoc Allowed, so they don't allow tackles for loss, fumble the ball or throw interceptions.
While the schedule has been pretty soft to date, I still trust Rutgers because it consistently ranks top-10 in Havoc Allowed every single year. It's just the way that the Knights play.
And as it turns out, the only thing Virginia Tech can do defensively right now is create Havoc, where they rank 19th. Elsewhere, the Hokies sit outside the top 50 in Defensive Rushing and Passing Success Rate, and they're outside the top 100 in tackling.
I think we saw a lot of those things in Vanderbilt's win over VT. Unfortunately for the Hokies, that's not going to work against Rutgers.
Plus, Rutgers is coming off a bye here, and Schiano knows what to do with time off. He's 17-8-1 against the spread with extra time to prepare.
This is also a great situational spot against Virginia Tech because the Hokies have a short week to get prepared for a titanic ACC matchup against Miami.
Let's go get it outright with the most solid, disciplined offense in college football right now.
Stuckey: East Carolina ML +205 vs. Liberty
| East Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | -250 |
ECU is a high-variance team, but it's one of the most improved programs in the country. The Pirates could easily be 3-0 right now after leading App State, 17-0, last week before letting it slip away.
They at least have a pulse on offense this season and the defense is still really good, but this is also a fade of a Liberty team that has been extremely disappointing.
The Flames have not looked impressive thus far. They were in a game against Campbell that was tighter than expected in the fourth quarter and then would have lost at New Mexico State the following week if it weren't for a crazy comeback
A lot of that is due to injuries, as they have pieces hurt at defensive tackle, cornerback, wide receiver and on the offensive line.
They've really missed CJ Daniels at wide receiver, and now it looks like running back Quinton Cooley — the heartbeat of the offense — could miss some time. Head coach Jamey Chadwell didn't seem optimistic about it earlier in the week before saying he might play with some load management. Either way, he won't be 100%.
In a higher-variance game with a down Liberty team, the Flames could be ripe to get picked off.
I also like East Carolina against the spread, and the good thing about taking ECU with the points is that Liberty won't run it up to cover. If the Flames are up three at the 1-yard line, they'll take knees.
Last week, they were laying 23.5 against UTEP and had an 18-point lead at the Miners' 1-yard line. Despite UTEP head coach Scotty Walden calling timeouts and other coaches telling him to punch it in, Chadwell stood pat. In his presser, he said he'll always take a knee in that situation.
So, you have to keep that in mind if you're ever fading or backing Liberty as a big favorite.
Either way, I'll take ECU here.
