The final week of the college football regular season is here, so let's take a look at our top moneyline underdog plays for Saturday, Nov. 30.
Just like we do on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
Last week, we swept the board.
Collin backed ACC to knock off Virginia Tech, while I backed a red-hot Kansas team facing yet another top-25 opponent in Colorado.
It was nice to get a sweep, but either way, it's on to Week 14.
This week, Collin's heading to the ACC, where he's taking Wake Forest to topple Duke. I'm taking UTSA to keep down Army after seemingly getting things figured out.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays out over 6-1.
Let's dive into our college football moneyline underdogs for Week 14.
- 2018-23: 72-114, +12.65 units
- 2024-25: 13-13, +5.26 units
College Football Moneyline Underdogs for Week 14
Collin Wilson: Wake Forest +150 vs. Duke
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -178 |
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
I'm going to go with Wake Forest on a number that's coming down against Duke.
Duke has been playing a little over its skis this season with eight wins when it should be closer to 6.8, according to second-order win total. It's also worth noting that this will be its third straight road game on a senior day.
Meanwhile, Wake Forest is playing for its fifth win, which could help propel it to a bowl thanks to its APR ranking if there aren't enough six-win teams.
Offensively, the Blue Devils have lived solely off pass explosives from quarterback Maalik Murphy. That's important because Murphy could be facing discipline internally after an incident that occurred after a touchdown last week. There's no word yet if he'll miss any time, but it's something to watch.
The trickling in the line caught my eye immediately, and it could be for that reason.
With the motivation factor and Duke's situation with Murphy, I'm going to take Wake Forest to get it done in an in-state conference game to close out the regular season.
Stuckey: UTSA ML +210 vs. Army
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
I love this spot for Meep Meep, which is playing its best football of the season, having found its footing on offense with Owen McCown slinging it all over the field.
After a slow start to the season, UTSA has won four of its last five with the lone loss coming by one after it somehow blew a 35-7 lead.
It has scored at least 38 points in all five with explosive plays all over the field. The Roadrunners shouldn't have issues moving the ball on this Army defense.
Most importantly, UTSA brings an elite run defense up to West Point, which is obviously critical against the Black Knights. On the season, the Roadrunners have only allowed 3.07 yards per rush, which ranks 11th nationally, while ranking second in Rush Success Rate and eighth in EPA per Rush.
They also grade out at an elite level in some of the underlying metrics (such as Stuff Rate) that I look for when evaluating how a defense will perform against a service academy offense.
Plus, Army might be a bit deflated after last week's crushing defeat against Notre Dame, which essentially ended its College Football Playoff hopes.
The Black Knights are essentially playing for nothing in this game with the AAC title and Army-Navy game on deck.
Give me Meep Meep in a good spot with a spread I think is super inflated.
