Welcome to college football Week 9, where we'll be diving into our favorite moneyline underdog bets for Saturday.
For the seventh straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
After two straight weeks of sweeping the board, we came back to earth last week. West Virginia got its doors blown off by Kansas State in Big 12 play, while Oregon State fell short of a comeback against UNLV.
No matter what would've happened, it's on to Week 9.
This week, Collin and I are both backing Big Ten 'dogs. I'm going to take Michigan State in a revenge spot against in-state rival Michigan, while Collin heads to Camp Randall Stadium for Wisconsin vs. Penn State.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays out at 7-1.
Let's dive into our college football moneyline underdogs for Week 9.
- 2018-23: 72-114, +12.65 units
- 2024-25: 8-8, +4.08 units
College Football Moneyline Underdogs for Week 9
Collin Wilson: Wisconsin ML +205 vs. Penn State
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
This is a great situational spot for the Badgers. Penn State has Ohio State on deck, which might already be on the mind of Penn State head coach James Franklin.
This also hasn't been a great place for the Nittany Lions to play. Penn State hasn't won a game in Camp Randall Stadium by more than a touchdown since 2007.
There have been a number of instances of Penn State stumbling before facing Ohio State. I'm going to throw UMass out from last year, but 5-7 Illinois won this game in 2022. Indiana won this game with Michael Penix Jr. in 2020, 36-35, and the Hoosiers nearly won this game in 2019 as well.
The more pressing thing, though, is what's going on with this Wisconsin offense over the last two games. While the Badgers faced the defenses of Rutgers and Northwestern, they put up 309 yards on the ground against the Scarlet Knights as Tawee Walker racked up 5.2 yards after first contact.
While Penn State ranks third nationally in Defensive Rushing Success Rate, its strength of schedule comes in at just 70th. In its last game, USC put up 8.4 yards per rush on 23 attempts, showing that PSU's run defense is exploitable.
When looking at the type of personnel and run concepts Wisconsin wants to run, it's been heavy outside zone. The Badgers want to go offside off the tackles and let Walker go to work. Well, the Nittany Lions have been just mid-FBS against outside zone when looking elite against every other run concept.
Expect Walker to be a problem for Penn State in an overlook spot with the Nittany Lions set to face Ohio State next week.
Stuckey: Michigan State ML +170 at Michigan
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | +170 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
I had this spot circled prior to the season, and I'm sure Sparty has as well after getting embarrassed on their home field, 49-0, against their in-state rival and eventual national champions a season ago.
While it doesn't necessarily fit the mold of a buy-low, sell-high spot with Michigan State upsetting Iowa last week and Michigan losing as a favorite at Illinois, I expect the Spartans to continue to be a buy-on team in the near future following their bye week.
I also believe the market simply can't catch up to how much some of these teams — like Michigan and Florida State — can fall off from one season to the next. Trust me, I struggle with it myself. But that's the new college football world we live in.
Similar to last week against Iowa, this matchup sets up well for the Michigan State defense, which has excelled at slowing down opposing rushing attacks (26th in Success Rate).
The Spartans have had issues in coverage, but that's not a concern against the Wolverines, who are averaging a paltry 128.3 passing yards per game. Here are the teams averaging less (notice not even Iowa makes the list):
- New Mexico State
- Kennesaw State
- UL Monroe
- Air Force
- Army
The Michigan defense is still very good but might be down star cornerback Will Johnson, who usually takes away one half of the field.
I'm just not sure where the Wolverines are at mentally after suffering their third loss of the season.
They have no offense to speak of, and the defense may start to wear down as the season progresses. They're not even getting any help from a subpar punt team.
It's also worth mentioning that Michigan State has been excellent in the scripted portion of the game under Jonathan Smith. In a game where points should come at a premium (total of 40), an early score or two could end up deciding this game.
It's shocking to even type, but I actually have Michigan State power-rated as the better team on a neutral field right now by a slim margin. Prior to the season, I had Michigan closer to -20.
Give me the battle-tested Spartans on the road with the much better coach and quarterback with a defense that can hold its own against Michigan's running backs.
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