For the fifth straight season on our college football betting podcast (now Big Bets on Campus), Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
Last week, we had second consecutive donut for the crew — although both teams had a chance late. SMU gave up 14 unanswered in the fourth quarter before turning it over on downs in the final minutes because it refused to sneak the ball on fourth-and-1. My pet peeve, although Maryland was probably the right side there.
Meanwhile, Collin felt the pain with Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers should have undoubtedly won that game in regulation before eventually falling in overtime.
Collin has the only win on the season and should be 3-0, while my selections have been hot garbage. It's time for me to join the party in Week 4.
This week, we both rolled with conference dogs in prime-time. If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pays just under 13-1 odds.
- 2018-21: 49-83 +4.1 units
- 2022: 1-5 -2.8 units
- Overall: 50-88 +1.3 units
Wilson: Kansas State +375
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | +370 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | -460 |
After an upset loss to Tulane, Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman will look to get more out of transfer quarterback Adrian Martinez in the passing game after barely throwing downfield through three games.
One of the most ambivalent players in Cornhusker history, Martinez and star running back Deuce Vaughn should exploit an Oklahoma defense that ranks 110th in Line Yards.
Kansas State can control the line of scrimmage on offense, which should give it opportunities to hit some explosive plays using looks that Will Venables hasn't seen on film since the Wildcats have been so vanilla on offense to date.
Oklahoma sits at 71st in Defensive Rushing Success Rate after a schedule of UTEP, Kent State and Nebraska. That should mean big things for the Kansas State rushing attack, which is its bread and butter.
As for Heisman contender Dillon Gabriel, he has yet to face an opponent that has generated any type of pressure. That will likely change on Saturday against one of the best defensive lines in the Big 12.
Gabriel has been mistake-prone at times in the past, a top-15 rank in pass coverage and some pressure could lead to some critical takeaways, which Kansas State will likely need to pull off this upset.
I'm also not completely sold on this Oklahoma offense just yet. The Sooners struggled a bit more than I expected against UTEP and Kent State, especially in the first half. They did destroy the Nebraska defense, but so did Northwestern and Georgia Southern.
Chris Klieman has been a cash cow at Kansas State with an impressive 22-12-1 against-the-spread (64.7%) record. That includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark against these Sooners with two outright victories as 28- and 24-point underdogs.
Let's make it another upset in four tries as a double-digit underdog on Saturday night in Norman.
Stuckey: Oregon State +190
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 70.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 70.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
First off, I show value in this number in a game I project right around USC -3.
The USC offense is tremendous by every stretch. Everybody knew it would eventually reach an elite level with all of the assembled talent orchestrated by Lincoln Riley. However, I didn't expect it to be this crisp over the first few weeks.
Oregon State won't get too many stops, but the Beavers understand they need to play aggressive by trying to create Havoc on early downs and turnovers on passing downs in order to steal a possession or two.
If the Beavers can force just a few stops via turnover or on downs, they can easily win this game since the USC defense likely won't get many stops. That's exactly how it played out last year in Oregon State's upset win over USC in Los Angeles almost exactly one year to the day.
The Trojans rank outside the top 100 in almost every defensive category except points, turnovers and red-zone defense. All of those stats are generally random and should normalize over time based on how poorly USC rates in every more-predictive metric.
And it's not like it's played a murderer's row of opposing offenses in Rice, Stanford and a Fresno State team that lost its star quarterback to injury halfway through the game.
Oregon State features one of the nation's top offensive lines, which should absolutely dominate the line of scrimmage in this matchup. Both offenses should thrive, so it will likely come down to a random stop or two, which is why I'm rolling with the Beavers.
And if one team is due to not get a bounce or two, it's USC and its FBS-leading +10 turnover margin.
