For the sixth straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
Last week, Collin couldn't get the Gators to the window after ignoring my warnings not to ride with his favorite coach, Billy Napier, Fortunately, Ole Miss did hang on in a wild barn-burner to get us the split.
- 2018-22: 60-98, +8.3 units
- 2023: 5-5, +4.05 units
- Overall: 65-101, +12.35 units
This week, Collin and I are rolling with a pair of medium-sized home underdogs taking on two awful defenses, starting with a noon kick in the Midwest.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays right around 6-1 odds.
Wilson: Missouri +170
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 65 -110o / -110u | -205 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 65 -110o / -110u | +170 |
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There's no end in sight for the struggles of an LSU defense that has allowed its opponents to convert scoring opportunities into touchdowns on almost every opportunity. In 27 drives across the Tigers' 40-yard line, opposing offenses have averaged 4.9 points with 95% of red-zone trips ending in points.
There's almost no metric that paints a pretty picture for this dreadful LSU defense.
Coordinator Matt House indicated third-and-long has particularly plagued the Tigers, who rank 102nd in opponent average distance at 7.7 yards per attempt.
However, they just can't get off the field and have allowed way too many explosive plays on passing downs, which will likely once again be an issue against a budding Missouri offense that has been humming of late.
Wide receiver Luther Burden moved from wideout to slot to start the season in one of the moves made by new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore. Fast forward through five games, and Burden is the highest-graded target in all of college football, per PFF.
In terms of explosives, targets are graded at two yards per route run. Burden has smashed the definition of explosive, averaging 4.8 yards per route run.
Now at full health, quarterback Brady Cook has thrived in Moore's new offense with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions. The fourth-year quarterback has generated just two turnover-worthy throws, both coming against Middle Tennessee in Week 2. Since then, the offense has been on fire and now gets a reeling defense at home.
The Missouri defense will be asked to step up in a big home spot, similar to its win over Kansas State in Week 3. The Tigers rank in the top five nationally in defending the rush, which could signal that LSU's Jayden Daniels zone read could hit some bumps.
LSU does have the advantage in the passing game, as Daniels has dominated Missouri's preferred setup of cover 1 and cover 3, so it should get its points.
But any stop by the Missouri defense might be enough in a game that simply could come down to whichever team has the ball last, making the price tag on the moneyline here too juicy to pass up.
Stuckey: Arizona State +160
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
| Arizona St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
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This looks like a prime spot to fade a Colorado team that might forget to get off the bus in Tempe.
To start the season, Colorado has played five games with mass hype leading up to each, with the past two coming against undefeated ranked opponents. How much do the Buffaloes have left in the tank? They may be running on empty, especially with a team void of depth.
Even if we ignore the depth concerns — Travis Hunter remains out, for what it's worth — it's still a tall order for kids to get up week after week like Deion Sanders has done to start his tenure in Boulder.
Plus, Colorado profiles as a horrible favorite since it can't run the ball or play defense. From a matchup perspective, that also aids the Sun Devils, who have graded out very well against the pass, ranking in the top 20 nationally in EPA per Dropback.
That's massive against a Colorado offense that has been completely reliant on the superb Shedeur Sanders creating explosive plays on known passing downs. Well, that might not be as easy against a Sun Devil defense that ranks fifth in the country in Passing Down Explosiveness, trailing only Michigan, California, Ohio State and Georgia.
They have struggled immensely to contain opposing ground games, but that isn't a concern against a Colorado rushing attack that has the seventh-lowest yards-per-carry mark in FBS at 2.6.
Additionally, even after back-to-back covers, Arizona State still has some lingering market value after some early season abysmal performances, including a 38-0 loss to Fresno State in its first home shutout loss since 1988.
In that game, the Sun Devils had eight turnovers and had to use a number of quarterbacks due to a plethora of injuries under center and along the offensive line, which plagued Kenny Dillingham's squad throughout September.
They've also been one of the unluckiest teams in the country in terms of field position, ranking dead last in net field position, which hasn't helped matters.
Well, ASU has rebounded nicely with two competitive losses against USC and Cal with quarterback Trenton Bourguet — its best option, it appears — looking more than adequate throwing downfield during last week's 344-yard performance against the Golden Bears. He should have no issues moving the ball down the field against this putrid Colorado defense.
For a team that isn't eligible for the postseason, these games serve as their Super Bowls, as we saw against the Trojans. I expect a spirited effort from the Sun Devils with a decent defensive matchup against a potentially fatigued Colorado bunch.
Forks up.
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