Another week of college football is upon us. And what better way to kick it off than by betting some of the day's biggest games from the early slate?
Our staff came through with four best bets from Saturday's noon games: Texas Tech vs. TCU, Kentucky vs. Missouri, Ohio State vs. Northwestern and North Carolina vs. Virginia.
Our writers — Tanner McGrath, Cody Goggin, Alex Kolodziej and Stuckey — woke up ready to attack the day, so read on for all four of their best bets below.
Also, be sure to check out the rest of our college football best bets for Week 10, including picks from Saturday's afternoon and evening kickoff windows.
Saturday Noon College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football staff is targeting from today's noon slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texas Tech vs. TCU
Saturday, Nov. 5 12 p.m. ET FOX |
Texas Tech +8.5  |
I bet Texas Tech +9.5 one second after Max Duggan threw this heave to cover against West Virginia.
This late TCU TD is absolutely brutal for gamblers everywhere — 4th & 1 with 0:26 seconds left in the ballgame.
TCU spread was -7.5
Total was 68.5 pic.twitter.com/DF9fRVYSHM
— CJ Vogel (@CJVogel_TFB) October 29, 2022
It’s fourth-and-1 with 26 seconds left. Run the ball up the gut, Sonny!
TCU has been a covering machine this season (6-1-1 ATS) but is becoming the Big 12’s luckbox. It shouldn’t have covered against West Virginia, needed a fourth-down score to cover against Kansas State scored a last-minute touchdown to beat Kansas’s backup quarterback.
It’s time for some regression. The Horned Frogs deserve to drop one. Or, at least win by four when the spread is eight.
Enter a Texas Tech team that’s scoring 34 points per game and ranks top 30 nationally in several key defensive statistics, including 21st in Pass Success Rate Allowed.
The TCU defense isn’t all that good, meaning the Red Raiders should keep up offensively.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech has been great on standard D=downs, meaning it’ll force Max Duggan and Co. into longer passing downs. And I think Duggan is due for one letdown game in that area after a season of spectacular play.
Plus, this could be a game where water finds its level. TTU lost by 38 to Baylor last week, while TCU pulled off the aforementioned miracle cover. Both teams are due for some regression.
Texas Tech keeps this interstate rivalry game within a touchdown.
Pick: Texas Tech +8.5 ⋅ Play to +7.5 |
Kentucky vs. Missouri
Saturday, Nov. 5 12 p.m. ET SEC Network |
Kentucky +1  |
By Cody Goggin
These two teams have very similar profiles. They both rely heavily on their strong defenses and the offenses haven’t been quite as good. On paper, it makes sense why Kentucky is just a one-point favorite. However, I think there’s a lot of value on the Wildcats this weekend.
After starting 4-0, Kentucky has faltered over the last month and has slipped to 5-3. The Wildcats defeated Mississippi State but lost to Ole Miss in a game where they outplayed the Rebels, lost to South Carolina without Will Levis, and finally were dismantled by No. 1 Tennessee last week.
This most recent loss really takes the shine off of Kentucky, but I think it’s ready for a bounce-back.
Mizzou’s defense has looked fantastic this year. No SEC team, including Georgia, has scored over 26 points against this defense. It’s been wonderful, and I think it should have another strong week.
The Missouri offense is what gives me doubts.
The Tigers’ offense ranks 93rd in Success Rate and 113th in EPA per Play. The main issue has been Brady Cook and the passing game. They rank 117th in EPA per play when passing, and Cook ranks 91st in PFF passing grade among quarterbacks that have played at least 20% of their team’s passing snaps.
Despite the abilities that Mizzou has shown on defense this year, I think Kentucky is just the better team and will be able to pick up a bounce-back road win this weekend.
The under could also be in play with these two questionable offenses and strong defenses.
Pick: Kentucky +1 ⋅ Play to -2.5 |
Ohio State vs. Northwestern
Saturday, Nov. 5 12 p.m. ET ABC |
Over 57.5  |
Ohio State is the top scoring offense in the country. The scary part is this just another tune-up in Evanston.
The Wildcats are unconventionally incompetent defensively, ranking bottom-five in pass coverage and just outside the bottom 25 in tackling.
Because the offense runs with so much pace, there’s a discount on the over, which continues to drop due to wind.
Although CJ Stroud uses the air to his advantage (the Buckeyes rank third in pass yards per attempt), and thanks to Northwestern’s difficulty wrapping up in open space and inability to stop a running back — it allows 166 rushing yards per game — we should see the scoreboard operator plenty busy at Ryan Field.
Ohio State has routinely been good for 45-plus even through the meat of its schedule. Books are treating this over/under like it’s a typical Pat Fitzgerald team — it’s not.
Expect a lot of points at sleepy Ryan Field.
Pick: Over 57.5 or Better |
North Carolina vs. Virginia
Saturday, Nov. 5 12 p.m. ET ACC Network |
Virginia +7.5  |
By Stuckey
Get ready to hold your nose.
Virginia is not a good football team, but the ‘Hoos do have a very underrated defense, especially against the pass. That’s key against UNC’s aerial attack. UVA’s pass defense has kept it in a number of games, including a pair of two-point losses against Syracuse and Miami.
UNC quarterback Drake Maye is the real deal. His unbelievable freshman campaign looks even better the more you dig, especially when you consider he’s working behind a shoddy offensive line.
Drake Maye has been under pressure on 37.9% of dropbacks. That’s very high.
His under pressure stats:
(min. 35 snaps)•9 TD 1 INT
•1st in big time throw rate
•4th in passer rating
•9th in depth of target— Stuckey (@Stuckey2) October 28, 2022
Virginia’s pass defense won’t make it easy on Maye, but he will likely still get his numbers. However, this is finally a game where Virginia’s offense can find success.
The Cavaliers have one of the least efficient Power Five offenses in the country, primarily due to a completely overhauled offensive line that can’t give quarterback Brennan Armstrong any time.
That may change against a UNC defense that doesn’t generate pressure and just can’t stop a nosebleed. Virginia’s offense should look competent for once.
Adjusted for opponent, the UNC defense ranks outside the top 100 nationally. It’s why Mack Brown’s bunch can’t put anybody away on the road:
- 63-61 at Appalachian State (649 total yards)
- 35-28 at Georgia State (421)
- 27-24 at Miami (538)
- 38-35 at Duke (542)
UNC actually got outgained in three of those four contests with Appalachian State, Miami and Duke compiling 649, 538 and 542 total yards, respectively.
Also, after beating Pitt last week, the Heels essentially hold a three-game lead in the division with the tiebreaker. With that in mind, a noon kick in Charlottesville sets up as a potential sleepy spot with Wake Forest also on deck.
For what it's worth, UNC is just 3-7 against the spread as a road conference favorite under Mack Brown. It lost five of those 10 games outright as favorites of 14, 6, 13.5, 4.5 and 7.5 with the latter coming at Virginia in 2020.
Pick: Virginia +7.5 |
