Week 7 is finally upon us, and we have an incredible slate ahead of us.
This week features three games between undefeated teams, and we're betting one of them here in Penn State vs. Michigan. Also among our staff's six favorite bets for Saturday's noon slate are Minnesota vs. Illinois, Iowa State vs. Texas and Miami vs. Virginia Tech.
Plus, we have some Group of Five love with Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green and Old Dominion vs. Coastal Carolina.
Read on for all six of our best college football bets for Saturday's noon games below — and be sure to check out our 13 other best bets for the afternoon and evening kickoff windows.
Saturday Noon College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Minnesota vs. Illinois
Saturday, Oct. 15 12 p.m. ET Big Ten Network |
Illinois +6.5  |
Tommy DeVito or no Tommy DeVito, 6.5 points with a home team in the Big Ten is too many points.
Illinois is the best rush defense in the country. Minnesota goes to the ground at the ninth-highest rate in the country. Bret Bielema rushes at a top-35 rate, and Minnesota has a top-20 rush defense. Both defenses rank top-five in Finishing Drives.
The total is too low to bet the under. But this is going to be one of those classic Big Ten rock fights. Both teams will run the ball, punt the ball and play defense.
This is too many points for that type of game. This is a game that finishes 15-12.
Tanner Morgan is currently PFF’s highest-graded FBS quarterback. But he’s coming off a game in which he went 18-for-33 for no touchdowns and three picks. Against Purdue’s lackluster defense. Now, he has to travel and face a defense that’s allowing 3.8 yards per play.
I’d make this line something like Illinois +3.5 or +4.5. It’s a buy from me at anything over two field goals.
Pick: Illinois +6.5 or Better
Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green
Saturday, Oct. 15 12 p.m. ET ESPN+ |
Miami (OH) -6.5  |
By Doug Ziefel
There is no better way to kick off your Saturday than with some MACtion.
The Miami (OH) RedHawks will take on the Bowling Green Falcons. While this is a battle between two bottom-of-the-barrel teams, one side has a significant edge.
Bowling Green has been one of the worst defensive teams in the country this season, as it enters at 114th in points per game allowed and 128th in yards per game allowed.
Teams have done most of their damage against the Falcons on the ground. They have provided almost no resistance when it comes to the rush, as they rank 120th in yards per rush allowed.
Their weakness plays right into the scheme of the RedHawks. The RedHawks run the ball at the 12th-highest rate in the country and have had some success, as they are averaging 4.4 yards per carry.
While the RedHawks will be able to move the ball on the ground offensively, the key to covering will be their ability to slow down Bowling Green's passing game. The Falcons may throw the ball a ton, but they haven’t had much success, as they only average 6.1 yards per pass.
Miami (OH) has had plenty of reps against the pass this season, as its opponents have passed over 55% of the time. However, the RedHawks have fared well under all that volume, as they are 70th in opponent completion percentage and 71st in yards per pass allowed.
Overall, the RedHawks should dominate on the ground and pull away from the Falcons as this game progresses.
Pick: Miami (OH) -6.5 (Play to -7)
Penn State vs. Michigan
Saturday, Oct. 15 12 p.m. ET FOX |
Under 51  |
If you were blindly betting Michigan game unders, you would be undefeated on the year (depending on when you got the total). That is insane, given how many points the Wolverines have been scoring.
I’m here to tell you to ride it again. If you read my piece in our mega guid, you’d know that this Penn State defense is for real. The Nittany Lions are inside the top 20 in Success Rate Allowed, Havoc Rate and Points Per Opportunity Allowed.
In addition to being one of the most run-heavy teams in the country, Michigan is one of the slowest teams in the country, ranking 108th in Seconds Per Play.
This Michigan defense has played well all year, particularly in terms of Success Rate Allowed, where it ranks in the top 20.
The Wolverines have also been great at limiting big plays, ranking 13th in Explosiveness Allowed.
The one area of concern is that they aren’t great at causing Havoc and could allow Sean Clifford time to get into a rhythm. However, I’m not a Clifford believer.
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I’m predicting an extremely slow game, where Michigan takes a small lead into half and grinds out the clock to protect it. Give me the under in a game with two fantastic defenses and two offenses that love to run the ball.
Pick: Under 51 (Play to 49.5)
Old Dominion vs. Coastal Carolina
Saturday, Oct. 15 12 p.m. ET ESPNU |
Over 56.5 |
A lot of people expected this Coastal Carolina offense to take a step back after losing all of its skill-position players, led by Jaivon Heiligh and Isaiah Likely.
But Grayson McCall just keeps doing what he does. He’s completing 70% of his passes and has thrown 15 touchdowns to just one interception.
The running game lost Shermari Jones to the NFL, and Reese White and Braydon Bennett were expected to be the top two backs. Well, Bennett hasn’t played yet, and White has missed the last three games.
But in steps CJ Beasley, who is averaging over 87 yards per game and has gone over 100 yards in two of the last three games.
This Jamey Chadwell offense has not missed a beat and ranks ninth in the country in Success Rate. It sits fourth in passing, 24th in rushing and is as efficient as they come.
Meanwhile, the one area that has taken a step back is the defense. It ranks 111th in the country in Success Rate against the pass and sits 98th at defending explosiveness.
This Old Dominion team passes the ball a ton and ranks 18th in passing explosiveness. Hayden Wolff has thrown nine touchdowns with just two interceptions, and Ali Jennings leads the country with 137.6 yards receiving per game. He has a big-play threat on every play and has averaged 21.5 yards per catch.
Old Dominion has struggled defending the run, so this Coastal Carolina offense should be able to move the ball and up and down the field with no problem. But when Ricky Rahne’s squad has the ball, it’ll be able to be explosive and pick up big plays on this defense to push the total over 56.5.
Pick: Over 56.5 (Play to 58)
Iowa State vs. Texas
Saturday, Oct. 15 12 p.m. ET ABC |
Texas Team Total Over 32.5  |
By Matt Wispe
The hype train is rolling for Texas following its 49-point win over Oklahoma in the Red River Showdown. And because of that, sportsbooks have forced bettors to lay three scores on Texas against an Iowa State team that has lost its last three games.
Through six games, Texas is averaging 38.8 points per game and 6.9 yards per play. And in the two games that Quinn Ewers finished, the Longhorns have averaged 6.95 yards per play and 50.5 points.
As a team, the Longhorns rank 15th in Success Rate and 20th in points per opportunity.
On the other side, Iowa State’s defense has played very well. It has allowed an average of 13.7 points per game, 2.34 points per opportunity and a 40% Success Rate.
However, this will be a big step up in competition for the Cyclones. Texas ranks seventh in offensive SP+ and of Iowa State’s six opponents, only Kansas ranks inside of the top 30.
Texas’ passing game, in particular, will be the difference. Iowa State allows a 41% Passing Success Rate and Texas has a 55% Passing Success Rate, which ranks seventh.
With another week of Ewers under center, Texas will cruise on the offensive side of the ball and soar past 32.5.
Pick: Texas Team Total Over 32.5 (Play to 35)
Miami vs. Virginia Tech
Saturday, Oct. 15 12:30 p.m. ET ESPN3 |
Under 46.5  |
I’m going back to the well that is fading the Virginia Tech offense, but this time, we’re welcoming Miami to the party as well. Fading the Hokies offense has been profitable this season (unders are 4-1), with the exception of last week against Pitt.
Virginia Tech managed to score a season-high 29 points against the Panthers and had 403 yards of offense — a season-high against Power Five opponents — but this was far from some sort of offensive renaissance.
It had more to do with how poorly the Hokies defense played, letting Israel Abanikanda rush for 320 yards and six touchdowns. Pitt scored so quickly that the Virginia Tech offense just found itself on the field more than usual.
On the other side of Saturday’s matchup in Blacksburg is Miami. The Hurricanes finally got off the offensive schneid last week versus North Carolina, recording a season-high 538 yards of offense against FBS opponents in a 27-24 losing effort.
It was Tyler Van Dyke’s best outing of an otherwise disappointing season by 231 yards. But as we’ve seen all season, the Tar Heels have one of the worst defenses in the entire country and have held a team below 24 points just once this season — none other than Virginia Tech (10).
Outside of North Carolina, whose total defense ranks 123rd, Miami has only faced one other Power Five defense this season in Texas A&M. The Hurricanes managed just nine points in that outing. Miami will find more success against Virginia Tech, but to what degree remains to be seen.
The Hurricanes have put up decent yardage stats on offense, but it hasn’t translated directly to scoring. Miami ranks 23rd in total offense but 46th in scoring (32.8 points).
One leading reason is that few coaches are as conservative as Mario Cristobal. No one loves a field goal more than the former Oregon head coach. The Hurricanes rank 19th in red-zone trips (28), but they’re just 78th in the country in converting those trips into a touchdown (60.7%).
With this game taking place in Blacksburg and Cristobal wanting to avoid any sort of adversity in a hostile environment, I think he really slows down this game and doesn’t ask too much from Van Dyke.
The Hokies will have their normal offensive struggles, while Miami is content to play it safe and just get out with a win. Enter Sandman will be the most entertaining thing in the one; back the under 46.5.
Pick: Under 46.5 or Better
