After a week that saw a lot of the top teams survive big tests on the road, Week 6 is a bit barren for big-time matchups outside of Oklahoma vs. Texas.
With that being said, there are still a couple of games I see early-week value in.
The market clearly moves a lot over the course of the week. Money pours in from the time lines open on Sunday until kickoff on Saturday. Like any other sport, it's paramount to get the best price possible when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It happens every week.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 on Sunday afternoon.
I'm here to help you navigate the market by providing a few lines I'm buying right now — or other lines that I'm waiting to buy later in the week.
The hope for this piece is to beat the market, get the best price possible, and in the long run, save you some money with closing line value. To do that, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
You hear all the time, "Process over results." The best way to know if the process is working is by closing line value (CLV), meaning how many points did you beat the closing line by? Well, I'm here to help you hopefully get the most CLV possible early on in the week so you're sitting in a great position by the time we reach Saturday.
Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana Tech Odds
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 59.5 -115o / -105u | -285 |
| Louisiana Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 59.5 -115o / -105u | +230 |
Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana Tech Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Louisiana Tech -0.2 | Western Kentucky -2.8 | Western Kentucky -0.6 |
Western Kentucky dominated Middle Tennessee last Thursday night, but this will be a much more difficult matchup.
The Hilltoppers run an Air Raid offense in which they throw the ball on 66% of their plays while running one of the fastest tempos in the country.
Quarterback Austin Reed was highly coveted by a lot of Power 5 schools as they tried to get him to transfer, but he opted to stay at Western Kentucky. However, although he's throwing the ball a lot, he hasn't been that efficient.
Reed is averaging only 6.4 yards per attempt and has an adjusted completion percentage of 68.8% with a PFF passing grade of 71.7. Those numbers, especially the adjusted completion percentage, are quite bad considering that 65% of his pass attempts this year have been under 10 yards.
He'll now be going up against a Louisiana Tech secondary that has been one of the best in the Group of Five through Week 5. The Bulldogs rank top-10 in Passing Success Rate Allowed, EPA/Pass Allowed and coverage grade.
Lousiana Tech quarterback Hack Bachmeier didn't play the last two games due to a shoulder injury, and he's questionable against the Tops.
Jack Turner got the start against both UTEP and Nebraska in his absence and played two completely different games. He was terrible against UTEP, going 9-of-20 for 152 yards with four turnover-worthy plays. But against Nebraska, he threw for almost 300 yards and had an 80.6 PFF passing grade.
No matter who starts at quarterback, the Bulldogs will likely lean on their rushing attack because the Hilltoppers can't stop the run at all. Western Kentucky sits outside the top 120 in EPA/Rush Allowed, Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
So even though Louisiana Tech averages only 3.6 yards per rush, it should be able to run on one of the worst front sevens in college football.
All three projection models show significant value on the Bulldogs, so I would grab them now at +7 and take advantage of Action’s FanDuel Promo Code for extra value.
LSU vs. Missouri Odds
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
Bet LSU vs. Missouri with a welcome offer using Action’s Caesars Sportsbook Promo code today.
LSU vs. Missouri Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| LSU -3.6 | LSU -1.2 | Missouri -1.2 |
After its second loss of the season, LSU's College Football Playoff hopes have vanished.
The problem at the moment is its defense can't stop anything. The Tigers rank outside the top 100 in both EPA/Rush and EPA/Pass Allowed, Havoc and Finishing Drives Allowed — all while allowing 6.5 yards per play.
You could make the argument that they've played two of the best offenses in the country in Ole Miss and Florida State, but they also gave up over 300 yards to Arkansas and Grambling.
Missouri enters this game undefeated because of quarterback Brady Cook, who's having a fabulous season under center as one of the most underrated quarterbacks in college football.
Cook is averaging 10.4 yards per attempt with an 81.8% adjusted completion percentage. And as you can see below, he keeps improving week after week.
Image via PFF.
It also helps when you have one of the best wide receivers in college football. Luther Burden III has the best PFF receiving grade in college football at 93.6 and has already caught 43 passes for 641 yards and five touchdowns.
COOK ➡️ BURDEN 🔥🔥@MizzouFootballpic.twitter.com/6skihzSVoS
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) September 30, 2023
LSU ranks 128th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and just allowed Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart to throw for 389 yards and four touchdowns. So, what do you think Cook is going to do?
Despite the defensive struggles, the Tigers offense has been awesome this season.
Jayden Daniels enters this matchup averaging 10.4 yards per attempt with a 91.1 PFF passing grade and threw for 414 yards and four touchdowns against Ole Miss on Saturday. They will have to rely on his arm on Saturday because Missouri's secondary is average at best.
While LSU has been running the ball with a lot of success, Missouri isn't allowing anything on the ground right now. The Tigers have allowed only 2.9 yards per carry while ranking third in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 13th in EPA/Rush Allowed.
Even though LSU averages over five yards per carry, it's not going to be easy to run the ball on this front seven in a hostile environment on the road.
All three projection models have this pretty close to a pick'em, so I'd grab Missouri at +6.5 now before it moves.
Texas State vs. Louisiana Odds
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -110 | 66.5 -112o / -108u | -110 |
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -110 | 66.5 -112o / -108u | -110 |
Texas State vs. Louisiana Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Louisiana -4.8 | Louisiana -8.3 | Louisiana -7.5 |
Texas State has been getting a lot of love in the betting market.
After its win over Baylor, it opened as an 11.5-point underdog at UTSA but closed as a 14-point dog. Against Southern Miss last week, it opened at -7.5 but closed at -6.5. So, it's pretty clear that even though the Bobcats covered in those two games, they're being overvalued at open.
Former Auburn quarterback TJ Finley has the Bobcats at 4-1, but they've faced some of the worst defenses in college football. Their last two games came against Southern Miss and Nevada, who both rank in the bottom 10 in yards per play allowed.
Finley is averaging 10.4 yards per attempt and has a PFF passing grade of 82.2, but his PFF grade came in under 70 in his last two games against two of the worst defenses in college football.
Louisiana's biggest struggles on defense have come against the run, but it boasts a solid secondary. The Ragin Cajuns rank top-35 in Passing Success Rate Allowed, EPA/Pass Allowed and PFF coverage grade.
Louisiana starting quarterback Ben Wooldridge went down with a foot injury at the beginning of the UAB game on Sept. 16, but Zeon Chriss has performed really well as the starter in the last three games.
While Chriss is averaging 8.0 yards per attempt and has a PFF passing grade of just 65.5, the Louisiana offense is designed around being efficient on the ground. That's perfect for a dual-threat quarterback like Chriss.
The Ragin' Cajuns are averaging a whopping 6.4 yards per carry as a team and sit inside the top 15 in both Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Rush.
Texas State hasn't been able to stop the run at all despite facing quite a few bad rushing offenses. The Bobcats rank 95th in EPA/Rush Allowed because all they do is give up big plays in the run game, ranking 125th in rushing explosiveness allowed.
All three projection models are showing at least three points of value on the Ragin' Cajuns, so I would grab them now at -1.
