College Football Odds, Futures: Boise State
It took 25 years of BCS and College Football Playoff exclusion for the sport's power brokers to finally come to their senses.
The best Group of Five team belongs in the race for the national title, and thanks to the expanded 12-team playoff set to debut this fall, the G5's top team will have an opportunity to win a national championship on the field.
No more kid's table, no more begging and pleading in the media or hanging banners in a desperate attempt to justify their accomplishments. The velvet rope has been unclipped, and it's time for the BCS-busters of yesteryear to confidently stride into the club.
How have sportsbooks responded to this collegiate sea change? More disrespect. Books are still pricing top G5 teams like this is the BCS or four-team CFP era.
Luckily for savvy bettors, this presents a massive opportunity to grab elite G5 teams at 500, 750 and even 1000-1 to win the national title. Here's the first team that I'm adding to my college football futures portfolio in 2024.
Boise State Broncos Offense
There's a lot to unpack on this Boise State offense and its potential ceiling, so let’s start up front. The Broncos return four offensive linemen, including freshman All-American Kage Casey.
While this kind of line continuity is rare in the transfer portal era, it’s worth noting that they’re not just experienced, but they’re also fearsome up front.
As a unit, they allowed just 1.14 sacks per game last fall (T-13th) while opening holes for a running game that crossed the 3,000-yard threshold and ranked fourth nationally. Only Liberty ran for more yards while allowing fewer than 1.2 sacks per game.
Spencer Danielson was busy in his first offseason as Boise’s head coach and scored a few major recruiting coups.
That included his work in bolstering his trenches. He added to his offensive line depth with three-star recruits out of high school (Daylon Metoyer) and the transfer portal (Jake Steele, San Jose State).
After an exhaustive search for an offensive coordinator, Danielson finally persuaded Boise State legend Dirk Koetter to return to the Blue for one last dance. Koetter has served as the Broncos’ head coach (‘98-’00), offensive analyst (‘22) and interim OC (‘22) in the past 26 years.
He now returns as the full-time answer at both OC and quarterbacks coach this fall. He’s always been able to get the best out of his offenses, and in particular, his quarterbacks.
In his final year as Boise’s head coach in 2000, the Broncos won 10 games and led the country in scoring at 44.9 points per game. Despite an up-and-down tenure as Arizona State’s leading man, his offenses finished in the top 20 on three occasions between 2001-06, including a dynamic season in 2005 when his team scored 37 PPG to rank seventh.
In the NFL, he worked his magic as an OC, playing a big part in the Jaguars’ surprising run in the 2007 playoffs with David Garrard as their starting quarterback. Garrard would reach a Pro Bowl with Koetter calling plays in 2009.
In 2012, he helped Matt Ryan reach new heights (fourth in raw QBR) while the Falcons soared to a 13-3 regular season.
When he finally got the call-up to head coaching ranks, his impact on the offensive side of the ball as a head coach was just as noticeable. Despite working with the turnover-prone Jameis Winston, Koetter’s Buccaneers improved offensively every year he was in Tampa. In his final year with the team, Tampa Bay finished third in total offense.
That leads us back to his reunion with the program that ultimately made him millions of dollars over the course of his coaching career.
Koetter stated in the offseason that he isn’t reinventing the wheel, leaving the terminology and core offense in place with a just series of tweaks.
I would assume he’ll lean on the Erhardt-Perkins play-calling system to help his young quarterbacks read defenses quickly. The long and short of it is that the system teaches route combinations, simplifies reads and allows Boise to appear more complex without overloading his young quarterbacks with unnecessary terminology or a dense playbook.
The other thing I anticipate is that Koetter will push the ball down the field more, especially in the play-action game.
The Broncos tailored their offense to the run-first Taylen Green last fall to great effect, but they have new weapons to transform this offense in 2024.
Before we get to those weapons, let’s talk quarterback.
The floor for Boise this season is Maddux Madsen. The third-year sophomore is a Boise throwback — undersized, gritty and willing to find a way to win at all costs.
At just 5-foot-9, he requires passing lanes to consistently complete passes, but he knows how to manipulate the pocket and make plays with his legs. If he were the starter for all of 2024, Boise could certainly compete for a conference title. But the team’s ambitions extend beyond the Mountain West Conference.
If Madsen is the floor, which player in this quarterback room offers a sky-high ceiling? Enter Malachi Nelson. The USC transfer is the highest-rated player to ever sign with Boise State.
The former five-star prospect enrolled early with the Trojans in January 2023, competed in spring ball and then had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder. The reps were a huge plus, particularly working with a quarterback whisperer in Lincoln Riley.
After watching his high school film and his two spring games, a few things stand out. The slender Nelson has a beautiful delivery, not all that dissimilar from Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers.
Respected recruiting analyst Gabe Brooks made the claim that Nelson may be the “most natural thrower in an excellent 2023 QB group.” For perspective, the ‘23 class includes Texas’ Arch Manning, Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava and Oklahoma’s Jackson Arnold.
Nelson also excels outside the pocket throwing off the platform, which explains why Riley recruited him so aggressively.
He was a perfect fit to be the next gunslinging quarterback off of Riley’s assembly line, following in the footsteps of Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Caleb Williams. So, to say that this is a monumental recruiting coup for a G5 program is an understatement.
His receiving corps has a chance to be the best in the MWC, which is saying something considering the star receivers returning at Colorado State, UNLV and Hawaii. What you’ll notice as soon as you flip on a Boise game is that it has speed and size on the perimeter.
Prince Strachan stands 6-foot-5 as the Broncos’ X-receiver. Austin Bolt checks in at 6-foot-3 and will likely win the Z-receiver role. And then there are two high-profile transfers in the mix in Cam Camper (Indiana) and Chris Marshall (Ole Miss/JUCO).
Both Camper and Marshall are imposing at 6-foot-3 and 200-plus pounds.
Camper couldn’t avoid the injury bug at Indiana, but when he was healthy, he flashed game-changing ability. He went over 100 yards receiving in nearly 25% of his career games at IU.
Marshall is a bit of a mystery, having flamed out at both Texas A&M and Ole Miss. But when he did stay on the field last fall at Kilgore Junior College, he was a big play waiting to happen in both the receiving and return games. If he can unlock the five-star talent that made him one of the most sought-after recruits in the nation, Boise may be unstoppable through the air.
On paper, this would all seem very promising, but the reason why I’m so bullish on Boise State fielding a top-10 offense isn’t based on potential; it’s based on its talented line opening holes for the nation’s best running back.
Forgive me for burying the lede, but Ashton Jeanty is an absolute mega-star. Keeping him in Boise this offseason was a borderline magic trick by Danielson, his staff, and presumably, BSU’s “Horseshoe Collective.”
Pick a metric, and he’s elite.
Pro Football Focus lists him as the nation’s best back in terms of his overall offensive rating. He finished second in all-purpose yards last fall (159.7), a testament to his pass-catching and tackle-breaking ability.
Unless a team puts a top cornerback or safety on him, he’s getting open. His 91.6 receiving grade puts him in rarefied air with the likes of college legends Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara.
Once he has the rock, good luck taking him down. He ranked third with 82 missed tackles forced last season with a full complement of moves to shed tacklers.
Like a boxer, he takes advantage of off-balance defenders selecting from an array of counterpunches from a brutal stiff arm, timely duck-under maneuver and a “truck stick” move that turns the 215-pounder into a rolling ball of knives.
Spelling Jeanty will be Jambres Dubar, a former four-star recruit out of the Lone Star State. If you put any stock in anonymous coaching comments collected by preseason preview magazines, MWC assistants seem to think he's a star in the making after a promising debut in 2023 that saw him average 5.3 yards per carry.
Jeanty’s mere presence is going to make life so much easier for Nelson this season. Defenders have no choice but to dedicate manpower to stopping him, which will limit coverage options. This will open up possibilities in the downfield passing game.
In a phrase, a perfect storm is brewing for Boise to build upon its offensive success last season. The Broncos scored 30-plus points in nine consecutive games in 2023. They’ll be even more dangerous this fall.
And as an added bonus, they have a real chance of producing not one but two All-Americans on special teams. Placekicker Jonah Dalmas is 18 made field goals away from setting an FBS record, and punter James Ferguson-Reynolds returns after a breakout sophomore season in which he ranked second nationally with 49.7 yards per punt.
Boise State Broncos Defense
If the offense does its job, the defense will merely need to be above average for the Broncos to be in the mix for the G5’s automatic CFP bid.
Can they build on a middling performance in 2023? I think they can, and it starts with the experience they bring back in the front seven and the work they’ve done in the portal.
Danielson is a defensive coach, having spent the past 5.5 seasons coaching up that side of the ball. Erik Chinander and Tyler Stockton will split the defensive coordinator duties this season, and both are rising stars.
Chinander has already been a DC for seven years with stops at UCF and Nebraska. He was responsible for UCF’s defense in 2017 and 2018 when the Knights went 25-1. His defenses in '17 and '18 were Havoc-minded, creating 60 turnovers, 183 tackles for loss and 116 pass breakups across those two seasons.
Those are monster numbers across the board, and his defensive identity in this respect should help BSU improve on a ranking of 53rd in Havoc from 2023.
Stockton, a four-time Broyles Award nominee, turned nothing into something at Ball State, transforming a lousy MAC defense into a pack of killers. Before he arrived in Muncie in 2019, the Cardinals were hovering around 100th in both scoring and total defense with a negative turnover margin.
Within two years, Ball State was top-10 in turnover margin, top-20 in passes defended and top-30 in tackles for loss. And he did this without a single player who went on to play in the NFL.
Stockton and Chinander know how to scheme up Havoc without a major athletic advantage on the field. But they won’t be coaching with an arm tied behind their back in 2024 because Boise has multiple high-end athletic talents on this defense.
Let’s start with Ahmed Hassanein, the Broncos' terror off the edge who finished last season with 12.5 sacks. He’s an athletic marvel, having risen to No. 1 in the Egyptian CrossFit rankings before giving football a full go. This is only his sixth year of organized football, and he’s getting better and better with each snap.
He’s joined by two returning starters on the defensive line, giving Boise’s 4-2-5 look stability up front.
The edge rusher position will rotate Jayden Virgin-Morgan and Tavion Woodard opposite Hassnein. Virgin-Morgan started six games last fall, but Woodard’s body of work at Ball State indicates that he could be a more disruptive edge rusher.
Andrew Simpson anchors a relatively experienced linebacking corps after being named to the All-MWC second team in 2023.
Marco Notarainni will line up next to Simpson and showed promise in limited action, making All-MWC honorable mention despite starting just five games last fall.
In my opinion, the front six of this defense will get after the quarterback and improve upon modest run defense numbers under the new Chinander/Stockton regime.
But this defense’s ultimate success will live or die on the back end. In three high-profile losses last fall, Boise’s secondary was shredded.
Against Washington in the opener, Heisman finalist Michael Penix Jr. threw for 450 yards and five scores. A month later, Memphis’ Seth Henigan broke the Broncos' back with a 59-yard touchdown pass to Demeer Blankumsee in the fourth quarter.
And in one of the season’s biggest collapses, Boise allowed Colorado State to score 21 unanswered in the final four minutes and change. The Rams pulled out the win 31-30 on the back of Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi’s 359-yard, three-touchdown performance.
Almost every loss from last season can be traced back to issues in the secondary, which finished 110th against the pass and 91st in pass coverage, according to PFF. Luckily for the 2024 Broncos, there’s reason for optimism on the back end.
Three seniors return in the secondary at cornerback, nickelback and safety. Corner A’Marion McCoy led the team in picks last season and is a consensus first-team All-MWC pick heading into 2024.
They also snagged Jeremiah Earby out of the portal after he started 10 games for Cal across the past two seasons.
The former second-team freshman All-American is a big cornerback (6-foot-2) who was a three-way dynamo in high school, scoring 15 touchdowns as a wide receiver and striking fear into opposing teams as a shifty return man. He’s a major upgrade as BSU’s CB2.
I would count on McCoy and Earby complementing each other considering the two played together in high school at Menlo-Atherton in East Palo Alto.
The Broncos are tied for second in defensive TARP (Transfer Activity & Returning Production) in the Mountain West, which speaks to their experience. According to ESPN's Bill Connelly, 19 defenders played at least 200 snaps in 2023, and 16 of them return to the Blue this fall.
They’ll need that experience to shine through early because their pass defense will be tested right out of the shoot with road trips to Georgia Southern and Oregon in the first two weeks of the season. The Ducks finished last season with the nation’s top passing game (346.9 YPG), and Georgia Southern wasn’t far behind (13th, 302.2 YPG).
Speaking of the schedule, let’s take a deep dive.
Boise State Broncos Schedule
For the first time since joining the MWC in 2011, Boise avoids both Fresno State and Air Force in conference play. That's wonderful news given the fact that AF and Fresno are universally viewed as top-four contenders for the conference crown.
More scheduling positives include a pair of well-timed bye weeks falling after their trip to Oregon and between two challenging roadies in October against Hawaii and UNLV.
The Mountain West has opened its arms to Washington State and Oregon State, allowing the Cougars and Beavers to use the MWC to fill its schedule in the wake of the Pac-12 implosion. Boise draws them both, but critically, it gets the Cougs and Beavs at home. The only other MWC program afforded that sweet deal is San Diego State.
The schedule features a chance to shock the world on Sept. 7 at Oregon and four games that fall in the sweet spot of being both winnable and excellent résumé-padding fodder with the CFP committee.
Oregon State (55th in SP+), Wazzu (59th), UNLV (66th) and Wyoming (75th) present those opportunities with an even split between home (OSU, WSU) and away (UNLV, Wyoming).
If the Broncos upset Oregon, there's a chance Boise spends a portion of the year in the top 10, but even a loss in Eugene doesn't doom its chances.
A 12-1 campaign with a MWC conference championship would be hard for any team to top. Liberty, for example, could run the table with its Downy-soft schedule and get leapfrogged by a one-loss Boise team.
Kelley Ford's projections indicate there's a 40% chance Boise wins 10 or more games in the regular season and a 12% shot it goes 11-1 or better.
I raced to the window to get a bet down on the Broncos to win the national championship at 600-1 because if they do get a seat at the CFP table, a monster futures ticket like this is a license to print money.
Pick: Boise State to Win National Championship (+60000 · BetRivers)
