When approaching the futures market, I generally like to open up three tabs.
The first is the current odds being offered by sportsbooks. The second is FiveThirtyEight’s college football predictions page, which produces probabilities you can manipulate based on single-game outcomes or if a team and/or teams were to win out. And the final tab I like to have handy is FBSchedules.
The data produced by this trio makes it pretty clear that there are only 13 teams remaining with a viable chance to win it all come January.
Of those 13 teams, I’m not interested in Alabama, Ohio State or Georgia. Tying my money up for three months, only to see a return in the 2-1 range isn’t worth it, plain and simple.
That leaves us with ten teams ranging from 11-1 to 100-1 to consider. Of that 10-pack, only one has the sought-after combination of path, a high gear on offense and just enough on defense to get it done in January — all at a favorable price, of course.
National Championship Picture
UCLA to Win National Championship (+6600)
Since 2016, every national champion has played a balanced and elite brand of football. If you were to add each national champion’s final offensive and defensive rankings together, the average total would be 8.7, according to Football Outsiders.
In the past four seasons, we’ve also seen a shift toward dominant offenses leading the way in Clemson (5th), LSU (1st), Alabama (1st) and Georgia (3rd).
Under Chip Kelly, UCLA is finally playing the complete brand of football he was brought to Westwood for in the first place. The Bruins rank third in completion percentage, fourth in yards per play, sixth in third-down conversion percentage and eighth in points per game at 40.8.
Not to go full Ed Orgeron on the boys in the “Sissy Blue Shirts,” but I expected Utah to beat them up physically and limit their big plays on Saturday. Instead, the Bruins made me a believer with 502 yards and 42 points in front of a surprisingly decent Rose Bowl crowd (42,000).
That’s two top-15 wins in a row for the Bruins, and it appears that Kelly may have the best passing attack of his famed career on his hands.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson ranks sixth nationally in QBR, and he’s improved his YPA for the fourth consecutive year. The fifth-year senior is now averaging 9.3 yards per attempt which is tied for 14th-best nationally.
Jake Bobo, a Duke transfer, has been doing his best Brian Poli-Dixon impersonation, harkening back to the success of the late 1990s in the Rose Bowl. Bobo is averaging 16 yards per reception and has more touchdown receptions (5) in his last four games than he did in four years in Durham.
From a schedule perspective, I couldn’t be more pleased with how things set up down the stretch. The ranked gauntlet the Bruins have faced is now broken up with a bye week before their trip to Eugene. If they can outscore a high-flying Ducks offense on the road, a top-10 national ranking and three lousy opponents await them in Stanford, Arizona State and Arizona.
This then leads into a Week 12 matchup in the Rose Bowl against USC. A split between Oregon and USC would still leave them in the mix, but if they were to win ou,t they would essentially be in CFP-guaranteed territory (96% according to FiveThirtyEight).
Yes, the Bruins defense leaves a lot to be desired, but at this price, you have to like their chances to keep the magic rolling.
For what it’s worth, they’ve made opponents earn it by limiting the big play week in and week out. Of Power Five defenses, UCLA checks in at ninth in terms of plays that have gone for 20 yards or more this season.
UCLA defensive coordinator Bill McGovern coached up the nation’s best run defense when he was calling plays for Boston College back in 2010. Thus far in 2022, UCLA ranks 15th in yards per carry allowed and 14th in run defense.
Conference Championship Picture
Texas to Win Big 12 (+270)
By Alex Hinton
I admit I needed to see Texas in action before I bought it this year. It was easy to see Texas’ talent level last season, but it was hard to trust. Miraculously, the Longhorns lost four consecutive games last season that they led at halftime.
That was before they lost to Kansas at home and allowed 57 points.
This season, Texas did blow a 14-point second-half lead at Texas Tech. But it also took Alabama to the wire at home in a game it arguably would have won had quarterback Quinn Ewers finished the game.
The Alabama loss didn’t blemish Texas’ conference record, and the Longhorns sit 4-2 overall and 2-1 in the Big 12.
Texas is fresh off of dominating arch-rival Oklahoma, 49-0, delivering a record margin of victory and scoring the most points in Red River history.
Oklahoma is now a complete non-factor in the Big 12 race after its third consecutive loss and the fact that the status of quarterback Dillion Gabriel is still up in the air.
Texas enters this week as one of the three conference title favorites in the Big 12, along with Oklahoma State and TCU. Oklahoma State and TCU are both still undefeated but will face off in Fort Worth this week, meaning the loser will have its first conference loss.
Texas hosts Iowa State this week as a big favorite. It will travel to Oklahoma State next week. The Longhorns have won two of the last three meetings against Oklahoma State, including in 2020 in Stillwater. Action Analytics has Texas as a one-point favorite over Oklahoma State, and I like the Longhorns in that one as well.
Texas’ schedule the rest of the way will not be easy. In addition to Iowa State and Oklahoma State, Texas has trips to Kansas and Kansas State while playing host to TCU and Baylor.
Texas lost to 2-10 Kansas last season, and the Jayhawks are much improved this season. However, they may be without star quarterback Jalon Daniels for the rest of the season due to a separated shoulder. Backup Jason Bean played well against TCU in his stead, but that’s a game Texas should win without Daniels.
TCU is the other team I considered in this space. I prefer Texas because it has a high-powered offense like TCU, but the Longhorns have the better defense.
Texas ranks third in the Big 12 and 23rd in the FBS in scoring defense, allowing 17.8 points per game. TCU comes in at fifth in the Big 12 and 54th nationally at 23.8 points per game.
TCU also ranks ninth in the conference and 84th in team sacks. When looking at the head-to-head matchup, if TCU can’t generate pressure on Ewers, he will have a big day distributing to his playmakers. Action Analytics has Texas as a six-point favorite over TCU at home.
Speaking of those Texas playmakers, the Longhorns are brimming with talent at the skill positions. Running back Bijan Robinson may be one of the five best players in the country regardless of position. Backups Roschon Johnson and Keilan Robinson offer different skill sets and complement him well.
Xavier Worthy is the big-play threat on the perimeter, but it’s receiver Jordan Whittington who is just ahead of him for the team lead in catches. Tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders then leads the team with five touchdown receptions.
Texas averages 38.8 points per game, a number that’s likely to go up with Ewers back. Its average of margin of victory is 32.5 points per game, which would not be possible without its emerging defense.
The Longhorns look like a team that’s beginning to ascend. They may just ascend all the way to the Big 12 Championship. I’ll buy them at +270.
Futures Bets to Watch
Tennessee Volunteers Title Hopes
By Alex Hinton
Keep an eye on Tennessee.
For the first time since 2016, Alabama and Tennessee will meet as top-10 opponents. Alabama won that matchup, 49-10, in Knoxville. But this year’s matchup feels different.
For starters, the status of Alabama quarterback and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young is still up in the air with his shoulder injury.
Without Young, Alabama scored just 24 points last week against Texas A&M. Quarterback Jalen Milroe proved to be a dangerous running threat but struggled with turnovers, which is not surprising for a redshirt freshman in his first start.
A&M has a better defense than Tennessee, but the Vols have a much better offense. They have a Heisman contender themselves at quarterback in Hendon Hooker, who has 10 touchdown passes and zero interceptions while completing 70% of his passes. He has also added 231 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.
Tennessee ranks second in the FBS in scoring offense, averaging 46.8 points per game. Alabama will likely need more than 24 points to win this week, and it’s not out of the question that Tennessee beats Alabama in a high-scoring affair even if Young plays.
If the Vols prevail this week, the possibilities are endless for Tennessee.
Rocky Top heads to Athens to battle No. 1 Georgia on Nov. 5. Outside of Alabama and Georgia, Tennessee will be a double-digit favorite in every other game the rest of the way with UT Martin, Kentucky, Missouri, at South Carolina and at Vanderbilt on the docket.
If Tennessee can earn a split out of Alabama and Georgia, it will finish 11-1.
The Vols are +900 to win the SEC on FanDuel. Beating Georgia would be more advantageous to their conference title hopes because they would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker in the SEC East over the Bulldogs.
But why stop there?
Tennessee is also +4000 to win the National Championship on both FanDuel and BetMGM.
If Tennessee were to upset Alabama instead of Georgia, it would still have a shot at making the College Football Playoff. It would have a head-to-head victory over Alabama, which could really come in handy if Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship game. In that scenario, Tennessee could position itself to be the second SEC team in the CFP instead of Alabama.
A victory over Bama or Georgia would be in addition to wins against Florida, at Pitt, at LSU and probably Kentucky in the future.
Nationally, the focus may be on what this game means for Alabama’s National Championship hopes. However, this is a huge game for Tennessee for both its SEC and national title hopes. It will be a very important Third Saturday in October in Knoxville this week.
