We all know the college football market moves a lot over the course of the week. Money pours in all over the place from the time lines open on Sunday afternoon to kickoff on Saturday.
Like any other sport, it's paramount to get the best price possible when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It could have all been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 Monday morning.
I'm here to help you navigate the market by providing a couple of lines I'm buying right now with my specific thresholds or other lines that I'm waiting on buying for later in the week.
The hope for this piece is to beat the market, get the best price possible, and in the long run, save you some money with closing line value. To do that, we'll utilize our TAN projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
Now that college football is finally here, let's kick things off with a couple of bets for Week 0.
UConn vs. Utah State Odds
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+27.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +1500 |
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-27.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -4500 |
| Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| TAN | SP+ | Cunningham |
Utah State -19.6 | Utah State -25.6 | Utah State -19.5 |
What better way to kick off the college football season than putting an early bet in on Connecticut. A new era is beginning under Jim Mora as the Huskies travel out west to take on Blake Anderson's Utah State Aggies.
If we take a look at the market for this game, UConn has actually gotten some love. This line opened at Utah State -29 back in May but has hovered around -28 or -27.5 for a couple of months.
As recently as Saturday afternoon, DraftKings moved Utah State to -27 with all other books holding firm at -27.5. That's interesting because at the time of writing, the Aggies are getting 75% of the money.
That tells me some respected money has come in on the Huskies.
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UConn actually might not be as bad as it has been in years past. The Huskies have a new quarterback in Penn State transfer Ta'Quan Roberson, a four-star dual-threat quarterback coming out of high school. He should make UConn's offense drastically better than it's been in recent years.
Connecticut returns eight starters on the defensive side of the ball, its top running back in Nathan Carter, who averaged 4.6 yards per carry, and it lost only one wide receiver from last year.
Another constant theme throughout the spring is how impressive RB Nathan Carter has looked. Every observer who comes through Storrs has nothing but praise for the compact, versatile back. Should be the lead horse in the stable—check out the route here #BleedBlue @UConnSI pic.twitter.com/2m5xCAIUhZ
— Ric Serritella (@RicSerritella) April 7, 2022
Defensively, Utah State has lost four of its top five tacklers, including first-team All-Mountain West linebacker Justin Rice, and doesn't have anyone to replace his production.
The Aggies featured a boom-or-bust offense a season ago, ranking 101st in Success Rate and third in explosiveness. UConn was actually 29th in explosiveness allowed last season, so this isn't the worst matchup for Mora's squad.
With all three projection systems lining up with Utah State around -19, now is the time to hit UConn at +27.5 before it lands around -27 or -26.5 at kickoff.
