For the fifth straight season on our college football betting podcast (now Big Bets on Campus), Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
Well, I finally joined the party in 2022 with an outright underdog winner with Troy en route to our first sweep of the season. Collin nailed it once again by going back to the well with another Oklahoma fade. TCU was never in doubt.
Let's keep it rolling this week.
For Week 6, Collin will get us started at noon for a second straight week with a home conference pup, while I'm doing the same in prime-time. If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pays over 6-1 odds.
- 2018-21: 49-83 +4.1 units
- 2022: 4-6 +3.85 units
- Overall: 51-89 +7.95 units
Wilson: LSU +125
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 64.5 -114o / -106u | -152 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -102 | 64.5 -114o / -106u | +126 |
The Bayou Bengals will play host after a troublesome road trip to Auburn in a game they probably should have lost. However, the LSU defense eventually woke up just in time, shutting down Auburn’s offensive attack.
Quarterback Jayden Daniels, who was pulled last week due to precautionary reasons after a minor injury, is good to this week, along with the best offensive lineman on the team, Garrett Dellinger.
Head coach Brian Kelly strategically asked his quarterback in public to be more aggressive in downfield passing, which has been severely lacking so far in 2022.
With Tennessee ranking 120th in coverage grading on the defense, the Tigers should find plenty of open areas to throw for explosive plays. LSU certainly has the talent to exploit a vulnerable Vols defensive backfield that gave up almost 500 yards passing to the inconsistent Anthony Richardson of Florida.
Meanwhile, the Tennessee offense focuses on staying in standard downs. Head coach Josh Heupel said the running game was paramount to the Volunteers' success in Baton Rouge.
That may prove difficult against an LSU defense that ranks in the top 25 in Defensive Line Yards. If Tennessee can’t stay ahead of the chains, it will put Hendon Hooker and company in obvious passing downs, allowing LSU’s ferocious defensive line (top-25 Sack Rate) to pin its ears back.
Tennessee will certainly still be able to move the ball. It’s one of the best offenses in the country, after all.
However, I expect LSU’s defensive front to be even more impactful in the red zone with a condensed field for the fast-paced Vols to work with. On the season, LSU ranks 13th nationally in Finishing Drives.
Plus, it likely won’t have to worry about star wide receiver Cedric Tilman lining up on the outside as he continues to receiver from injury.
Look for the LSU defensive line to make enough plays to slow down Hooker, while a more aggressive Daniels takes advantage of a porous Tennessee secondary.
Stuckey: Stanford +225
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -105 | 56.5 -115o / -105u | -280 |
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 56.5 -115o / -105u | +225 |
Will Stanford ever cover a game? Let’s hope so because the Cardinal — who are 0-11 against the spread in their last 11 — certainly need to at least cover in order to win this game outright.
This could be the spot to buy low on Stanford at home after losing three consecutive games to ranked opponents. It now gets to face a potentially deflated Oregon State team off of back-to-back losses against USC and Utah.
The Beavers also have questions about who will start at quarterback with Chance Nolan — who has struggled mightily of late — getting hurt last week at Utah.
The Beavers offense also sorely misses stud tight end Luke Musgrave, who led the team in receptions through two games before suffering an injury.
Stanford has looked lost at times during its current three-game losing streak. One of the primary culprits has been horrendous offensive line play, which has rendered its new mesh point offense completely inept. For the season, the Cardinal rank in the bottom 10 nationally in both Sack Rate and Stuff Rate. That's not an ideal combination.
Since Myles Hinton went down with an injury against USC, the first two replacements at right tackle have played as poorly as I've ever seen for a Power Five team. Hinton’s injury also had a domino effect across the line. For example, it forced Barrett Miller, who also got hurt last game, to move from right guard, where he's most effective.
The one silver lining from last week's blowout loss is Jack Leyrer thrived at right tackle in his collegiate debut after being forced into action early on.
If the offensive line can give quarterback Tanner McKee time, the pro prospect can make this offense work. Potentially having everyone healthy this week and the promising debut of Leyrer leaves me more optimistic.
It will certainly help to face an Oregon State defensive line that ranks 120th in Sack Rate in 2022, exactly where it finished in 2021. Facing a defense that lacks a pass rush should be a welcome relief for Stanford after facing Oregon, USC and Washington, with the latter two ranking in the top 10 nationally in Sack Rate.
On the flip side, Stanford's defensive line ranks 131st out of 131 teams in Line Yards. That could be problematic against a rock-solid Oregon State offensive line.
Stanford obviously has major issues in the trenches on both sides of the ball, but I believe this is the bottom of the market on the Trees in a good situational spot and favorable matchup.
