Arkansas vs Florida Odds
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 49 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 49 -110o / -110u | -160 |
It's safe to say that conference play has not gone great for the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Hogs come into this matchup having lost six straight games, five of those being to SEC foes. Now, they're faced with a tough road test.
The team presenting that test is the Florida Gators. Florida enters this matchup off a 23-point loss to Georgia, the top-ranked team in the AP Poll, but that loss only brought them to 5-3 on the season. Despite the defeat, the Gators still hold a winning record in conference play.
While this matchup may be the definition of a buy-low spot on the spiraling Razorbacks, there's another angle that may be even stronger. Let's dive into it.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas has been outscored, 164-128, over the span of its six-game losing streak, and while that's a lot of points given up, the biggest issue is that it's been unable to keep up offensively with the best of the SEC.
Looking at the Razorbacks offense, they tend to keep the ball on the ground a bit more than half the time. However, they've had very little success on the ground. They rank 120th in yards per rush allowed and come in at 70th in Offensive Line Yards.
They don't project to have a breakthrough on the ground in this matchup, as the Gators hold the edge in the trenches and are 11th in Line Yards.
Arkansas has been great in the red zone, ranking 10th in red-zone scoring. However, its issue has been getting there. The Razorbacks rank 94th in Quality Drives and 63rd in third-down percentage.
The Razorbacks haven't been able to run the ball or sustain drives consistently, and the last part of that is the passing game. KJ Jefferson has been decent, ranking 36th in completion percentage, but that's when he's had time to throw.
Jefferson has had very poor protection behind an offensive line that comes in at 130th in Sack Rate Allowed. Florida hasn't generated a ton of pressure, but it should cause problems, especially if it stops the run and forces Arkansas into third-and-long situations.
Florida Gators
Coming into the season, many scoffed at the thought that bringing in Graham Mertz would lead to success for the Gators. However, that's been the case, as Mertz has played far better in the Swamp.
Mertz is third in the nation in completion percentage and 37th in yards per pass. His improvement can't be discounted, but we may see him and the Gators offense take a step back in this matchup.
The Razorbacks have faced some high-powered offenses in conference play but still rank 44th in Passing Success Rate and are 28th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Arkansas has been burned by big plays, but it should be able to generate pressure against Mertz and the Gators' offensive line. The Florida O-line is outranked in Sack Rate compared to Arkansas by 104 spots.
Arkansas vs Florida
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arkansas and Florida match up statistically:
Arkansas Offense vs. Florida Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 65 | 11 | |
| Line Yards | 70 | 42 | |
| Pass Success | 112 | 86 | |
| Havoc | 130 | 60 | |
| Finishing Drives | 25 | 93 | |
| Quality Drives | 94 | 59 | |
Florida Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 34 | 29 | |
| Line Yards | 67 | 26 | |
| Pass Success | 43 | 44 |  |
| Havoc | 77 | 23 | |
| Finishing Drives | 19 | 28 | |
| Quality Drives | 17 | 59 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 32 | 98 |
| PFF Coverage | 87 | 78 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 2 | 12 |
| Middle 8 | 27 | 41 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.4 (111) | 29.7 (116) |
| Rush Rate | 57.4% (51) | 49.9% (98) |
Arkansas vs Florida
Betting Pick & Prediction
This game has the potential to be a rock fight. Arkansas offense has been borderline abysmal, and its outlook against this Florida defense on the road in the Swamp is bleak.
On the other side, the Razorbacks defense is being underrated after going through a gauntlet of elite SEC offenses. They match up well with the pass-happy Gators and are poised to give Mertz issues in the pocket.
In addition to the defenses having the edge, both of these teams play very slowly, as the Gators rank 111th in seconds per play while the Razorbacks are a bit slower at 116th.
All signs point to this game going under the total.
