FIU vs. WKU Odds
| FIU Odds | +7 |
| W. Kentucky Odds | -7 |
| Over/Under | 43 |
| Time | 2 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN CE |
It may not be the game you're most excited for this weekend. Actually I can pretty much guarantee that it's not. You probably weren't even aware that it was happening, and to be fair, I wasn't either …
… until I took a look at our PRO Report feature.
As it turns out, while this rather ugly Conference USA matchup may be lacking in the hype department, it's certainly not lacking in betting value. Sharps, projections and betting systems are all pointing to the same side this afternoon, so let's take a look.
College Football Sharp Pick: FIU vs. Western Kentucky
Our PRO Report makes it clear: the visiting Panthers are undervalued at the current price.
Sharp Action
Bettors have been pretty close to split on this matchup throughout the week, with Western Kentucky holding a 52% to 48% edge in terms of tickets placed. But as you can see, FIU has come down from +9.5 to +7.5, and even +7 at many books. What reason could oddsmakers have for that shift?
Sharp action.
Per Sports Insights Bet Signals, which track and record instances of market movement caused specifically by sharp action, there have been at least four separate cases of pro activity on the underdog, pushing this line down to the key number of +7.
Sharp Action edge: Florida International
Big Money
Making the sharp side even more apparent — and providing more reason for oddsmakers to shift their lines — the 48% of bettors on the Panthers have generated a ridiculous 94% of actual money as of Saturday morning.
Of course, that's a monetary liability to which sportsbooks need to react, but perhaps more importantly, it reveals that FIU is landing much, much bigger bets. And what kind of bettors are most likely to be making those big bets? Sharps.
Big Money edge: Florida International
PRO Systems
If history is any indication, sharps are making the right move. As a 7-point underdog in a game with a pretty low total (43 as of writing), FIU fits our Road Dogs Low Totals PRO System, which boasts a 59% win rate on a sample of more than 600 games since 2005.
PRO Systems edge: Florida International
Model Projections
And finally, making this betting opportunity even more noteworthy, our projections suggest that there's still value on Florida International even after the line drop down to +7.
In fact, Collin Wilson's model projects this spread at FIU +4.5, creating close to a field goal's worth of value at the current line.
Model Projections edge: Florida International
