Purdue vs. UConn Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-34.5 (-120) | 56.5 -105o / -115u | -9000 |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| +34.5 (+100) | 56.5 -105o/-115u | +3000 |
The UConn Huskies stink.
They are a flat-out terrible football team that’s played flat-out awfully through two games. They got shut out by Fresno State and then allowed a whopping 38 points to Holy Cross.
The Huskies have now compiled a total of three wins since 2018 (granted, Connecticut didn’t play last season), and nothing on this team is pointing towards any sort of improvement this year.
Meanwhile, Purdue took care of business in Week 1, taking down Oregon State at home and covering the seven-point spread. That victory should mean more as the season progresses.
However, does UConn’s incompetence make the Boilermakers an auto-bet? I think there's a few ways we can take advantage of Connecticut on Saturday afternoon, so let's dive in and find the best betting angles.
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue finished just 2-4 in Big Ten play last season, but there are plenty of reasons for hope in West Lafayette.
Those start with quarterback Jack Plummer, who won the starting job after a battle with Aidan O’Connell and then backed it up with a 313-yard, two-touchdown performance against Oregon State.
Boilermakers Offense
Outside of Plummer, the Boilermakers offense actually has the highest TARP of any Big Ten offense, at 85%.
That offense showed out last week, as it dropped 30 points on the Oregon State defense despite gaining fewer than 90 yards on the ground. Instead, Plummer and a very talented receiving corps played well against the Beavers secondary.
In 2020, the Boilermakers threw the ball a lot more than they ran it, finishing 26th in Sack Rate and 116th in Adjusted Line Yards. Yet last year’s offense recorded a higher Rushing Success Rate than Passing Success.
Considering Purdue is a pass-first offense with nasty receivers and a line that is much better in pass protection, their Rushing Success Rate surprises me. Either way, the Boilermakers should be able to rush the ball with ease this week, considering UConn allowed 226 rushing yards to its Week 1 FCS opponent.
Boilermakers Defense
The Purdue defense is in a slightly worse position.
The Boilermakers finished outside the top 100 last season in Passing Success, Havoc and Sack Rate, and they are returning just 69% of last year’s production, per TARP.
Purdue’s defensive unit was spotty against Oregon State, but the Boilermakers held the Beavers to just 78 rushing yards on 25 attempts, which is an impressive feat when you consider Oregon State finished 2020 with the highest Rushing Success Rate of any team in the FBS.
Plus, Purdue picked off a pass while allowing no passing touchdowns.
Either or, Purdue lacks effective playmakers across its defense. Luckily, that probably won’t matter in this matchup.
Connecticut Huskies
It’s time for UConn to waive the white flag. The Huskies didn't play in 2020, and then the Head Coach Randy Edsall stepped down on Monday, with defensive coordinator Lou Spanos stepping in as the team's interim head coach.
Since Edsall took over the program in 2010, UConn has been one of the easiest teams to fade in all of college football:
Huskies Offense
UConn returned just 63% of its offensive production from 2019, and a big part of that was running back Kevin Mensah, who rushed for 1,000 yards in both 2018 and '19.
Well, Fresno State and Holy Cross held Mensah to a combined 97 rushing yards at 3.0 yards per attempt. As a team, UConn has averaged a whopping 1.8 yards per rush attempt through the first two games.
Meanwhile, through the first two contests, quarterback Jack Zergiotis has completed a solid 44.6% of his passes while averaging 3.6 yards per attempt.
But the offense isn’t even the worst part.
Huskies Defense
The UConn defense is the biggest dumpster fire I’ve ever had the pleasure of witnessing.
Not only did the Huskies finish 127th in SP+ rating in 2019, but they also returned just 47% of that production, per TARP. As such, the Huskies allowed 541 total yards to Fresno State and then 229 rushing yards to Holy Cross.
The secondary is filled with underclassmen, and just like Jake Heaner did in Week 0, look for Plummer to expose them in this matchup.
Purdue vs. UConn Betting Pick
Yes, Purdue is an auto-bet.
This line opened at Purdue -33 and has since moved to -34 across the market, even reaching -34.5 at DraftKings.
It doesn’t matter. Get ready to lay the points with Purdue and fade Connecticut until you can’t anymore.
Plummer is going to have a massive game against a young and untalented secondary. And while Purdue has a mysterious ground attack, West Lafayette High School could rush for four yards/carry against UConn.
The Purdue defense is questionable, but it doesn’t matter when the UConn offense has averaged a total of 2.6 yards per play through two games.
All-in-all, I’ve come up with three ways to fade the Huskies in this game:
- Purdue -34 (-110 on BetMGM)
- Purdue 1Q -7.5 (+100 on DraftKings)
- Purdue TT Over 46 (-120 on DraftKings)
Go for broke and hammer the Boilermakers in this matchup.
