The final window of the final regular-season college football Saturday of the 2022 campaign is here.
With that in mind, our staff is targeting three games and four best bets, including one Big 12 game and an ACC affair.
Dive in below to wrap up your season on a positive note.
Week 13 Saturday Evening College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football staff is targeting from Saturday evening's slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech
Saturday, Nov. 26 7:30 p.m. ET FS1 |
Texas Tech +2.5  |
Joey McGuire has injected a great deal of energy into the Texas Tech program since his hiring last fall. Jones AT&T Stadium should be rocking for the final home game of the year for the newly bowl-eligible Red Raiders.
I think Tech has a lot of matchup advantages in this game, and I like its chances of winning it outright.
Oklahoma continues to be vulnerable defensively, especially against big plays in the passing game. Oklahoma State couldn’t protect Spencer Sanders last week, which didn’t allow it to exploit a Sooners secondary that has struggled in Big 12 play.
TTU’s offensive line should be able to give Tyler Shough more time to find open receivers down the field.
On the other side of the ball, Dillon Gabriel has looked sharp for stretches, but hasn’t really put together four quarters of sustained effectiveness all year.
The Red Raiders will bring pressure off the edge to hurry Gabriel, and they should be able to stop the Oklahoma rushing attack.
Give me Texas Tech to get it done as a short home dog Saturday night in Lubbock.
Pick: Texas Tech +2.5 (Play to +1.5) |
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Syracuse vs. Boston College
Saturday, Nov. 26 7:30 p.m. ET ESPN3 |
Syracuse -10 |
Boston College has been one of the biggest disappointments of the college football season. The program has won two of its 10 matchups against FBS competition. Both of those victories came by just one point, while its average margin of defeat has come by 21 points per game.
Quarterback Phil Jurkovec is out, and it will be true freshman Emmett Morehead under center.
Morehead looked strong in his first two starts, throwing six touchdown passes and over 300 yards. But he was atrocious against Notre Dame, completing 9-of-22 for 117 yards, including three interceptions.
The Boston College offensive line has been one of the worst groups in the country. The Eagles’ rushing attack is averaging 2.0 yards per carry, which is the lowest number in the nation.
Despite running the ball on 42% of its plays, BC averages only 57 rushing yards per game, also the lowest in the country.
Syracuse's defense has been one of the better groups in the conference.
Boston College has become one-dimensional offensively and its pass rush will make life difficult on the freshman quarterback. The Orange defense ranks 27th nationally, allowing just 6.5 yards per pass attempt. I anticipate this defense to completely lock down Boston College's offense.
Syracuse is coming off of five losses in a row, but the level of competition has been stiff. It hung with Clemson before dropping games to Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Florida State and Pitt.
Now, as the level of competition drops, I anticipate it getting back to its winning ways in blowout fashion.
Pick: Syracuse -10 (Play -11.5) |
Air Force vs. San Diego State
Saturday, Nov. 26 9 p.m. ET CBS Sports Network |
Air Force ML -125  |
San Diego State's offense has been revitalized the past two weeks, putting up a combined 77 points against San Jose State and New Mexico.
However, Air Force is a completely different animal.
Jalen Mayden may be averaging 9.3 yards per attempt with 10 touchdowns compared to five interceptions, but his PFF passing grade sits at just 77.2 and he has only five Big Time Throws compared to 10 Turnover Worthy Plays.
The way to beat this Air Force defense is by throwing the ball, as the Falcons rank 98th in Passing Success Rate Allowed. However, they don't typically allow a lot of big plays in the passing game, ranking 21st in explosive passing allowed.
San Diego State's offense, meanwhile, is built on its rushing attack. It runs the ball on 59% of its offensive plays. Its rushing attack has not been successful at all, though, as it ranks 112th in Rushing Success Rate, 105th in Offensive Line Yards and 86th in EPA/Rush.
Air Force is literally playing at the slowest pace in the country this season, averaging a play every 31.99 seconds. The triple option has been really effective at controlling possession, as it holds the ball 60.2% of the time, which is the highest mark in the country.
Air Force's triple option has been incredibly efficient this season, ranking top-five in Offensive Line Yards, Stuff Rate Allowed, Power Success Rate and Rushing Success Rate. San Diego State sits outside the top 30 defensively in all three of those categories.
Pick: Air Force ML -125 (Play to -135) |
Alt Spread: AFA -4.5 (+140)
Vegas seems to be high on San Diego State after a pair of strong offensive showings against San Jose State and New Mexico in recent weeks.
The Aztecs have settled in on Jalen Mayden as the starting quarterback, but since replacing former starter Braxton Burmeister, Mayden has yet to face a defense as doughty as Air Force.
Air Force boasts the top defense in the Mountain West and the sixth-ranked scoring defense in the country. The Falcons have been a shutdown unit all season, giving up an average of just 14.2 points per game.
Mayden will have his most difficult test of the season against the third-ranked passing defense in the country. Air Force has allowed only 153.8 yards per game passing this season, giving up just eight touchdown passes in 11 contests.
Don’t expect the Aztecs’ rushing game to bail out the passing game when the Falcons’ secondary shuts them down. The Air Force front seven is tied for 17th nationally in rushing defense, giving up just 108.9 yards per contest.
So, how does Air Force come out on top? The triple option. It’s not a secret that Air Force will run the ball. In fact, it’s really the only thing the Falcons do.
Air Force hosts the top-ranked rushing attack in the nation, rushing over 60 times per game and averaging 336.4 yards.
Look for the tough-to-defend triple option to overwhelm the Aztecs' defense. The grind-you-down Air Force ground game will exhaust the San Diego State defense, especially after three-and-outs later in the game.
Back Air Force as it looks to avenge last season’s loss. It will be the more disciplined team and has a model advantage relative to where the market is.
I’m projecting Air Force as 5.5-point favorites and think that the alternate spread at plus-money offers strong value.
