Arizona State vs. Washington Odds
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
The Arizona State Sun Devils (6-3, 4-2 in the Pac-12) travel to Seattle to face the Washington Huskies (4-5, 3-3 in the Pac-12) on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET.
The Sun Devils need a win to keep their improbable Pac-12 South hopes alive while the Huskies need a win to avoid having to win at Colorado and against Washington State in Seattle to just get to bowl eligibility.
Making matters worse for Washington this week, head coach Jimmy Lake was suspended after striking and pushing a player after an altercation against Oregon last week.
Before being suspended, Lake fired offensive coordinator John Donovan on Sunday, so the Huskies will be without several key coaches for the first time this season (and this is in addition to linebackers and co-defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski leaving the program for the Texas DC role over the offseason).
Will the Huskies dig deep and pull off the home upset, or will the Sun Devils ride their ground game to a road win and cover? Let’s break it down.
Arizona State Sun Devils
When Arizona State Has the Ball
While the Huskies seemingly had their Pac-12 title hopes eliminated by Oregon last week, Arizona State has eliminated their own hopes by themselves.
Two weeks ago, the Sun Devils committed five turnovers and fell into an insurmountable 28-0 first-half hole as 16-point favorites at home against Washington State in a blowout loss. The Sun Devils bounced back as they rushed for 282 yards to beat USC 31-16 last week.
Running back Rachaad White and the Sun Devils should sustain success against the Huskies on the ground like they did last week, but the key to winning and covering will be limiting turnovers.
The Sun Devils are a better team in both trenches than the Huskies, and the only way Washington can keep this game within a score is if Arizona State turns the ball over.
Offensively, the Sun Devils have an elite running game as they rank fifth nationally in Line Yards and seventh in Rush Success Rate behind White and dual-threat quarterback Jayden Daniels. Conversely, the Huskies are a pitiful 113th in Defensive Line Yards and 114th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
The Sun Devils have been explosive as their offense ranks sixth in Big Plays, but they will face a strength-on-strength matchup against a Washington defense that ranks seventh in big plays allowed.
If they can’t break big plays through the air against a stingy Huskies pass defense that ranks third in PFF coverage grade and 13th in Pass Success Rate, the Sun Devils will need to take care of the ball as they run the ball down the field in methodical drives.
Washington Huskies
When Washington Has the Ball
The Huskies need to win out and have Oregon lose all three of their remaining games to win the Pac-12 North, so their chances of reaching Las Vegas in early December are bleak. They are coming off of a 26-16 home loss to Oregon — their first of six conference games decided by more than one possession.
The mediocre-at-best Washington offense that is a middling 86th in Rush Success and 88th in Pass Success Rate will struggle against Arizona State’s defense. The Sun Devils' defense ranks 33rd in Rush Success Rate allowed and 45th in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Conversely, the key matchup defensively will be a weakness-on-weakness matchup.
The Huskies’ offense has not been explosive as they rank 110th in big plays, but the Sun Devils have given up explosive plays consistently as they rank 98th in big plays allowed. If Washington can break some big plays, they will have a puncher’s chance to pull the upset. But if not, its offense won’t be able to sustain drives and score enough points to win.
The Washington offense will hopefully look somewhat different this week and have some wrinkles up its sleeve that Arizona State hasn’t seen on film now that it's playing with a new offensive coordinator.
Look for the Huskies to try to get tight end Cade Otton involved early and often in space in the play-action passing game.
Arizona State vs. Washington Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arizona State and Washington match up statistically:
Arizona State Offense vs. Washington Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 7 | 114 | |
| Line Yards | 5 | 113 | |
| Pass Success | 59 | 13 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 12 | 61 | |
| Big Play | 6 | 7 |  |
| Havoc | 74 | 104 | |
| Finishing Drives | 29 | 54 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Washington Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 86 | 33 | |
| Line Yards | 66 | 71 | |
| Pass Success | 88 | 45 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 105 | 91 | |
| Big Play | 110 | 98 | |
| Havoc | 56 | 24 | |
| Finishing Drives | 47 | 32 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 60 | 33 |
| Coverage | 61 | 3 |
| Middle 8 | 35 | 57 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 90 | 75 |
| Plays per Minute | 102 | 80 |
| Rush Rate | 59.% (38) | 50.8% (91) |
Arizona State vs. Washington Betting Pick
I believe the Sun Devils have the best running attack in the Pac-12, and I expect them to take advantage of Washington’s poor run defense and not relent until the final whistle.
While I'm confident in the Sun Devils’ ability to run the ball on this Washington defense, I'm not incredibly confident that they will avoid turnovers.
At the same time, the Washington offense will have trouble putting touchdowns on the board even if it gets short fields against the Sun Devils defense, and I don’t think it can score enough to keep this close without a lot of help.
Arizona State beat itself against BYU and Washington State with a combined nine turnovers in those two games, but I’ll ride with the superior Sun Devils in both trenches and hope they don’t turn the ball over three or more times.
I recommend betting on Arizona State at -5.5 (-110) for a half-unit with value down to -7.
