Auburn vs. South Carolina Odds
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| -7.5 | 46 -110o / -110u | -320 |
| South Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 | 46 -110o / -110u | +250 |
Action Network fans and podcast listeners, it truly pains me to say the words that I hoped I never would have to say in my lifetime. It is no longer Bo Nix season.
Nix suffered a season-ending injury in their loss to Mississippi State last week, a brutal loss for the Auburn Tigers. He was an enigma, captivating fans with his bone-headed throws coupled with elite-level play all at the same time. He will truly be missed.
Does the absence of Nix swing the value towards the Gamecocks direction? Does the surprisingly exceeding expectations Gamecocks fall back to earth against the Tigers backup TJ Finley?
Let's find out.
Auburn Tigers
Auburn Offense
While Nix built a reputation of spectacular plays to be followed up with head scratching mistakes, the Havoc Allowed for Auburn is pretty impressive. This is a unit that takes care of the ball, ranking ninth in the nation.
He will now be succeeded by the back up, Finley, who so far this season has thrown for 275 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He will need to continue to take care of the ball as South Carolina brings a top-10 pass rush.
South Carolina is more than capable of generating pressure in the backfield, so Auburn would be wise to lean heavier on running back Tank Bigsby. Other than having the best name in football, he has led Auburn in the backfield to a Rush Success of 23rd in the nation.
Bigsby and company will look to take advantage of the poor South Carolina rush defense all game until Finley gets comfortable in the pocket.
Auburn Defense
Auburn's defense may be one of the most confusing units in football. For the most part, it's held opponents in check in terms of scoring (That list doesn't include Georgia, Georgia State, Penn State and Mississippi State, an odd grouping).
While the Tigers rank near 40th or better in almost all defensive metrics, they do have one glaring weakness that jumps off the page.
Auburn's Defensive Pass Success is atrocious. The secondary has been getting burned game in and game out all season long. Last week's game was a prime example, as Mississippi State's Will Rogers threw for 415 yards and six touchdowns.
While South Carolina's passing attack is nothing to fear, this is a matchup that is worth monitoring for any live play.
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina Offense
For a team that had an opening season win total of 4.5, I'm not so sure how this offense already notched five wins under its belt.
The Gamecocks rank 80th or worse in every offensive advanced metric, including being near worst in the nation at pass block, Finishing Drives, and Havoc Allowed.
They have struggled to find any continuous success at the quarterback position, with three quarterbacks all attempting 75 passes or more each for a combined 2,053 yards, 17 touchdowns, and eight interceptions.
There are plenty of quarterbacks who are having a better season themselves than the trio of Gamecocks combined. Even with all their struggles, the opportunity presents itself to find some success against a poor Auburn pass defense.
South Carolina Defense
While the offense leaves much to be desired, the Gamecock defense has been a different story so far this season.
They boast one of the best defensive lines in the nation with a pass rush ranking of seventh in the nation, one that is led by star edge defender Kingsley Enagbare.
He has been the anchor of this defense, so far racking up 38 total tackles, and 4.5 sacks. A monster of a man that Finley will have to keep his eyes on at all times.
Kingsley and the rest of the line will need to step it up in the rush defense department, as they rank 92nd in Defensive Rush Success and 109th in Defensive Line Yards. This will be the main focus as Auburn will look to run Bigsby on them all night long.
Auburn vs. South Carolina Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Auburn and South Carolina match up statistically:
Auburn Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 23 | 92 | |
| Line Yards | 33 | 109 | |
| Pass Success | 58 | 57 |  |
| Pass Blocking** | 33 | 7 | |
| Big Play | 74 | 52 | |
| Havoc | 9 | 43 | |
| Finishing Drives | 48 | 25 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
South Carolina Offense vs. Auburn Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 107 | 21 | |
| Line Yards | 88 | 19 | |
| Pass Success | 81 | 108 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 124 | 25 | |
| Big Play | 80 | 39 | |
| Havoc | 121 | 42 | |
| Finishing Drives | 112 | 44 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 42 | 87 |
| Coverage | 39 | 30 |
| Middle 8 | 103 | 82 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 39 | 8 |
| Plays per Minute | 30 | 104 |
| Rush Rate | 48.6% (104) | 55.3% (61) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Auburn vs. South Carolina Betting Pick
The loss of Nix hurts, not only for Auburn, but for our viewing pleasures as well. Bo Nix season will always be in full effect in our hearts.
With that said, this game will need to be monitored for a potential live play, as I am not a fan of the current numbers. Auburn -7.5 is gross, and I would play that if it dipped to -6.5 or better pregame.
For South Carolina, I may take a small piece at +7.5 and look to hedge out mid-game if Auburn shows dominance in the run game and the secondary can show improvement in the pass attack.
With Auburn looking to pound the ball to potentially set up success for Finley late in the game, I may look for a live over if the scoring starts off slow — especially if the Gamecocks can find success against the weak Auburn pass defense later on.
This will be a trading game for me, constantly looking to grab pieces and build positions. Make sure to follow me on the Action App and set up alerts for any plays I make mid-game.
