Auburn vs. Texas A&M Odds
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +170 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
The stakes could not be any higher for the Auburn Tigers and Texas A&M Aggies heading into Week 10 of the college football season. Both teams sit just outside the top 10 in the first College Football Playoff rankings, with both teams angling to win the SEC West.
For Auburn, the path is straight: Win at Kyle Field and beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl, and a date with Georgia for the conference title is set.
For Texas A&M, the path is a little less clear with a win over Alabama in the rearview mirror. For the Aggies to have any shot, the game against Auburn is a must-win, and then a Tigers victory in the Iron Bowl will likely be needed.
Historically, this series has been tight over the past decade. Auburn holds the advantage, winning five of the last nine, but the spread falls evenly at 4-4-1.
This will be head coach Bryan Harsin's first trip to College Station, where the Aggies have covered against four of their five opponents this season.
The Tigers had the benefit of coming off a bye week before beating Ole Miss, but now the Aggies have that advantage before they host Auburn.
Auburn Tigers
Quarterback Bo Nix continues to post the best numbers of his career with a 9:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, making quick work of secondaries when the opponent's pass rush is not strong.
That was the case against Ole Miss, as just 7-of-34 dropbacks were pressured passing downs. Nix was nearly perfect within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, going 15-of-17 and dicing up the Rebels' front seven.
Nix led an offensive assault in passing downs that finished 20% higher than the national average in Success Rate.
Bo Nix is the king of schoolyard QB scrambles pic.twitter.com/bCQjuc236I
— Patrick Greenfield (@PCGreenfield) October 30, 2021
Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter will look to move the ball against a Texas A&M defense that ranks 114th in Stuff Rate and 41st in Rushing Success Rate. Auburn will get short yardage, but explosive plays through the air have been rare against the Aggies defense.
The Auburn defense has also been stellar against the pass, ranking fourth in defensive pass expected points and 28th in coverage via PFF.
The ability to stop the explosive run against the Texas A&M skill positions is the biggest liability when the Tigers are on defense.
Texas A&M Aggies
The rumors about head coach Jimbo Fisher and the LSU position persist after the coach served as an assistant on a National Championship team in Baton Rouge in the past.
A loss to Auburn would do nothing but warm up Fisher's seat with remaining road games at Ole Miss and LSU. The criticality of this game cannot be stated enough, as the Aggies have a small probability to win the West but would also fall to the basement of the division with a loss.
Fisher stressed at his weekly press conference that the offense has found its identity in the three consecutive wins over Alabama, Missouri and South Carolina.
Devon Achane nearly went untouched from the 35 yard line 😳💨#CFB
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 24, 2021
Texas A&M rushes the ball on 54% of plays, but that number has significantly increased of late. The Aggies had a balanced approach against Alabama, 15 more running plays than pass against Missouri, and had double the amount of rushing attempts than pass against South Carolina.
The devastating combo of Devon Achane and Isaiah Spiller is the formula on the ground in standard downs. Both running backs rank in the top 25 in yards after contact of all FBS rushers with at least 80 carries.
As for the passing game, Zach Calzada has been limited in attempts but does favor a particular zone on the gridiron. In wins over Missouri and South Carolina, the Texas A&M freshman threw just seven times over 20 yards. Calzada's passing attack has primarily focused between the hashmarks behind the line of scrimmage up through 10 yards down the field. The Auburn front seven will look to eliminate this zone in passing downs.
Defensive coordinator Mike Elko is calling another fantastic season with a 4-2-5 scheme that flashes blitz on opponents' third-down attempts.
Texas A&M has been particularly stingy when opposing offenses get into scoring position with a rank of sixth in Finishing Drives. Of 22 drives to enter the red zone, the Aggies defense has allowed just 10 touchdowns on the season.
Although there are advantages for the Auburn offense on the ground, the defensive scheme has ranked top-30 in stopping the explosive run, which should keep the Tigers from quick scores.
Auburn vs. Texas A&M Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Auburn and Texas A&M match up statistically:
Auburn Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 19 | 41 | |
| Line Yards | 21 | 27 | |
| Pass Success | 50 | 16 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 37 | 40 |  |
| Big Play | 12 | 61 | |
| Havoc | 6 | 37 | |
| Finishing Drives | 39 | 6 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Texas A&M Offense vs. Auburn Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 62 | 20 | |
| Line Yards | 83 | 29 | |
| Pass Success | 91 | 100 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 88 | 26 | |
| Big Play | 65 | 54 | |
| Havoc | 85 | 46 | |
| Finishing Drives | 85 | 47 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 21 | 23 |
| Coverage | 28 | 19 |
| Middle 8 | 90 | 33 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 19 | 17 |
| Plays per Minute | 37 | 96 |
| Rush Rate | 50.8% (94) | 53.5% (75) |
Auburn vs. Texas A&M Betting Pick
Auburn's ability to manage the explosive run will be under a microscope when these two teams kick at Kyle Field. The Tigers are 87th against rush explosiveness and allowed both of the last two opponents to stay in standard downs thanks to the run.
Ole Miss averaged 4.7 yards per play on the ground with a Success Rate 15% above the national average. Similarily, Arkansas was above the national average in Success Rate with the rush and averaged 4.9 yards per play.
Achane and Spiller are the biggest factors in this game, as they rank top-20 in FBS of all running backs when it comes to elusiveness, defined by PFF as success and impact of a runner with the ball independent of the blocking in front.
Fisher was specific in mentioning the Aggies' identity of controlling the clock and saving the play-action pass after pounding the run. Calzada may not have much luck against the Auburn secondary, but winning time of possession can be achieved.
As for Auburn's offense, the explosive play may be the only means of scoring, with the Aggies being one of the stingiest defenses in the red zone.
The Aggies are top-25 in tackling and 11th in passing downs explosiveness, making Texas A&M and the under the plays.
