Friday night lights are always special. Sometimes it's a local high school football matchup, and sometimes it's a series of intriguing college football showdowns that serve as an appetizer to Saturday's main course.
Tonight, we're focused on the Week 7 Friday college football slate that features everything from an Ivy League contest to conference battles in the American and Conference USA.
It all starts when Princeton plays Brown in the aforementioned Ivy League game at 7 p.m. ET before Navy heads to Dallas to face SMU in the AAC showdown.
Then, to wrap it all up, the Roadrunners of UTSA make the trip to Miami, Florida, to take on the FIU Panthers.
So, let's enjoy this appetizer while we can — because Saturday's main course will be here before we know it.
Friday College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Brown vs. Princeton
Friday, Oct. 14 7 p.m. ET ESPNU |
Princeton -19.5  |
Princeton is looking to repeat as Ivy League champions for the first time in over 60 years. The Tigers are off to a good start, winning their first four games by an average margin of 20 points, and will take on Brown on Friday night.
Brown has split its first four games of the year while dropping its first Ivy League matchup to Harvard. The Bears trailed, 35-7, entering the fourth quarter and cut the deficit to seven with 5:30 to play but were unable to complete the comeback.
Princeton lost a ton of production in the offseason, including seven All-Ivy League players. The Tigers have retooled and haven’t missed a beat in replacing the lost talent.
Brown will have its hands full against a Princeton defense that's the cream of the crop in the Ivy League. The Bears offense has been prone to turnovers, so this Princeton defense could feast.
Brown Bears
The Bears had high expectations in the third season with James Perry at the helm. The group returned 16 starters from last year’s squad — nine on offense and seven on defense.
Brown split its first two games of the season with its biggest test approaching Friday night.
Despite all the returning production from last season, no one can replace EJ Perry, who set multiple school records at quarterback last season. Perry is now on the Jacksonville Jaguars practice squad, and the program turned to junior Jake Willcox.
The Everett, Massachusetts, native has completed 61% of his passes while averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. He’s been a slinger, tossing nearly 40 pass attempts per game but has been careless with the football. Willcox has thrown eight interceptions in four games, including three to both Bryant and Rhode Island.
The offense has been reliant on the passing game, as the rushing attack has been nonexistent. The Bears average only 2.6 yards per carry despite running the ball on 50% of their plays. This group will have little success running the ball against a dominant Princeton front seven.
The Brown defense hasn’t been great the first month of the season, allowing 32 points and 465 yards of total offense. The Bears give up six yards per carry and 7.7 yards per pass attempt.
It’s hard to imagine this defense stopping the hyper-efficient Tigers offense.
Princeton Tigers
Princeton has emerged as the powerhouse in the Ivy League after finishing 10-0 in 2018. The Tigers have started four different quarterbacks in all four seasons since, and none of those players have been a freshman.
This year, the tradition was continued by Blake Stenstrom, who led the offense to 29 points per game.
Stenstrom has completed 70% of his passes while averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt. The junior quarterback has passed for over 250 yards in all four matchups this season and only turned the ball over against Lehigh.
Much of Stenstrom’s success can be attributed to the wide receiver corps that is the class of the Ivy League. Seniors Andrei Iosivas and Dylan Classi have been a dominant one-two punch on the outside, averaging a combined 12 receptions per game while gaining 15 yards per catch this season.
The strength of this Princeton program has been its dominant defense, holding opponents to 10 points per game. The Tigers held Columbia and Lafayette to a combined eight points over the last two weeks.
There's no running the ball against this defensive front that's holding opponents to 1.9 yards per carry. Of the 95 rushing attempts the defense has faced, the group has come up with an astonishing 22 tackles for loss (23%).
Finding success through the air isn’t any easier, as the secondary is allowing 5.6 yards per pass attempt. The Tigers have nine sacks on the season and seven interceptions while giving up just three touchdowns in the passing game.
Brown vs. Princeton Betting Pick
This matchup has all of the fixings to turn into a rout early.
Offensively, Brown is not going to be able to run the ball. The Bears average only 2.6 yards per carry and will be matching up against a defense that allows less than two yards per rush. Princeton’s defensive front has amassed a tackle for loss on 23% of the rushes it faced this season.
That’s going to lead Brown to play from behind the sticks and lean on quarterback Willcox. Willcox is averaging two interceptions per game and now faces a Princeton defense that has seven interceptions and nine sacks this season.
The Brown defense has been bad, allowing 6.8 yards per play and 465 yards of total offense. Princeton owns an incredibly efficient offense that completes 70% of its passes and has 23 touchdowns on the ground.
Back Princeton to put on a show under the Friday Night Lights.
Pick: Princeton -19.5 or Better
Navy vs. SMU
Friday, Oct. 14 7:30 p.m. ET ESPN |
Navy +12.5  |
By Keg
After losing the first leg of the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, the Midshipmen bounced back in a big way, beating Tulsa 53-21, covering their third straight game as an underdog – their second of the three in which they won outright.
SMU, meanwhile, comes into Friday night's game looking for its first win in more than a month. The Mustangs have lost three straight games, their most recent coming in blowout fashion in a 41-19 loss to UCF.
To make matters worse for the Mustangs, multiple players have decided to sit the rest of the season to preserve their redshirt and enter the portal.
The Midshipmen Rank 113th in FBS in seconds per play while the Mustangs are one of the fastest and rank second with 19.5 seconds per play. Will Navy be able to slow down SMU enough to keep this one close?
Navy Midshipmen
Coming into last week's game against Tulsa, the Midshipmen had scored 53 total points in their first four games.
They proceeded to double their point total on the season by beating Tulsa, 53-21. It was the most points Navy had scored since its 2018 win over Lehigh (51-21). Coincidentally enough, it also played SMU following that game, losing in overtime, 30-31.
Navy's run game has consistently been one of the best over the years. They currently lead all FBS teams with 57.3 rush attempts per game and are fourth in the country, averaging 243.8 yards per game.
The passing game hasn't found much success this season. Their best game came against ECU, in which quarterback Tai Lavatai completed seven passes for 152 yards. However, the SMU defense ranks 106th in opponent completion percentage and allows 263.5 yards per game. So while it's unlikely, Navy may mix in 10-plus pass attempts against the Mustangs.
The Navy defense will be the deciding factor in this game. I don't doubt the Midshipmen will succeed running the ball against SMU, but if the secondary can't make some stops, it won't matter how much they slow down the game when they have the ball. SMU leads the country in passing yards while the Naval Academy ranks outside the top 100, giving up 280.5 passing yards per contest.
One quick way for Navy to change this game will be with turnovers. The Mustangs are one of the worst teams in the country when it comes to turnovers and have racked up 12 so far this season in five games.
Southern Methodist Mustangs
In last week's loss to UCF, the Mustangs did not record a single passing touchdown for the first time this season. Quarterback Tanner Mordecai did, however, extend his interception streak to four games while the Mustangs scored a season-low 19 points in the loss.
SMU's three losses on the season have come against UCF, TCU and Maryland. UCF ranks fourth nationally in rush yards per game, TCU ranks 13th, and Maryland ranks 66th.
Navy ranks 12th; it's clear the Mustangs struggle to stop the run, and I think their struggles continue this week, as well.
The Midshipmen also rank fourth among FBS teams regarding time of possession — another major factor that contributed to SMU's losses against UCF and TCU.
One bright spot for the Mustangs will be their defensive advantage in the red zone. SMU may be 73rd regarding Defensive Finishing Drives, but Navy is even worse on offense, coming in at 105th.
Navy vs. SMU Betting Pick
Navy is one of the best teams in the country when it comes to Defensive Finishing Drives, ranking ninth. And while they do have struggles of their own in the red zone, I think its ability to get stops will control the Mustangs.
SMU has proven multiple times already this season it can't win games if the team isn't winning the time of possession battle. Navy knows that, and I think it's something they'll not only emphasize in this game but have success with, given SMU's inability to stop the rush.
Our Action Network projections make SMU a 12-point favorite in this game, and I was able to grab the Midshipmen at +13. I feel comfortable backing Navy here at +10 or better
Pick: Navy +12.5 (Play to +10)
UTSA vs. FIU
Friday, Oct. 14 8 p.m. ET CBS Sports Network |
UTSA Team Total Over 48  |
By Matt Wispe
UTSA travels to Miami to take on Florida International in a Friday night Conference USA game.
The Roadrunners enter this game with a 4-2 record and a 2-0 record in conference play. They're 3-3 against the spread and have gone over the total in five of their six games.
FIU, meanwhile, enters with a 2-3 record and an 0-1 mark in conference play. The Panthers are 1-4 against the spread and have gone under in three of their five games this season.
It will be a warm and humid night in Miami with temperatures in the low 80s. Winds may have an impact on special teams with forecasted wind speeds ranging from 9.3 to 10.7 miles per hour.
UTSA Roadrunners
After a 12-2 2021 season, Jeff Traylor's Roadrunners have started a bit slower through the first six games of 2022. UTSA lost two of its first three games but has won its last three, including two conference games.
It has averaged 37.3 points per game and 6.5 yards per play with a 50% Success Rate. It has also put up 4.74 points per opportunity at a blazing 22.8 seconds per play.
The Roadrunners are passing the ball on 54% of plays and have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game. Starting quarterback Frank Harris is completing 68.9% of his passes for an average of 8.9 yards per attempt. He's tossed 13 touchdowns to five interceptions while also tacking on five rushing scores.
As a team, UTSA has a 53% Passing Success Rate and averages 4.8 20-plus yard passes per game.
The 2021 UTSA offense revolved around running back Sincere McCormick, who averaged 22.9 of the team's 39.2 rush attempts per game. This season's offense is playing faster with a more balanced approach.
Brenden Brady leads the team with 386 rushing yards and five scores with Harris serving as the second-leading rusher. As a team, the Roadrunners own a 49% Rushing Success Rate and are averaging 3.9 yards per rush.
The offensive line is generating 3.47 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a 13.3% Stuff Rate. This O-line has been battling injuries at tackle all season but has managed to be productive regardless.
The defense has struggled early, allowing an average of 33 points per game on 6.1 yards per play. On a per-play basis, however, it's held opponents to a 36% Success Rate with particular success against the run. Its 32% Rushing Success Rate Allowed ranks fifth nationally.
The areas of concern for this defense are its propensity to allow explosive plays and its relatively low Havoc rate. It gives up an average of five plays per game that go over 20 yards and generate Havoc on just 17% of plays.
Florida International Panthers
There's very little sugarcoating with this FIU team. Despite its two wins, it's among the worst teams in the FBS.
The Panthers have averaged just 16.6 points per game and 4.6 yards per play. They own a 37% Success Rate and average 2.76 points per opportunity despite playing at an incredibly fast pace of 22.9 seconds per play.
The Panthers own the seventh-highest passing rate at 60% and have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game. Quarterback Grayson James has completed 62% of his passes for an average of 5.7 yards per attempt while tossing seven touchdowns to four interceptions.
As a team, the Panthers boast a 40% Passing Success Rate, which ranks 87th nationally. They're not very explosive through the air, completing an average of two 20-plus yard passes per game.
FIU averages 29.8 rushes per contest for an average of 3.4 yards per attempt. It has balanced carries among three ballcarriers, with three players recording over 30 carries.
Lexington Joseph leads the team in attempts, yards and scores with 235 yards and one touchdown.
As a team, the Panthers have an abysmal 34% Rushing Success Rate. Their offensive line has generated 2.67 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a 23% Stuff Rate.
Through five games, FIU has given up an average of 38.2 points per game, which ranks 124th nationally. It's allowed at least 30 points to all but one opponent this season with that team being New Mexico State, which scored 21.
The Panthers allow a 45% Success Rate on defense and have generated Havoc on 13% of plays. They also give up 4.48 points per opportunity and allow 6.2 20-plus yard plays per game.
UTSA vs. FIU Betting Pick
UTSA has an advantage in nearly all of the meaningful statistics, which helps explain the spread — and it's the large spread that has sharps betting on the underdog to cover.
As of writing, 52% of bets and 66% of the money has landed FIU to cover. My instinct still leans in favor of UTSA to comfortably win this game, but at 33.5 points, it's not my preferred play of the game.
When it comes to the total, it's hard to overlook the impact of the pace of play. Both teams rank in the top 15 when it comes to pace of play, so there will be plenty of opportunities to score points. But even then, relying on an FIU offense that has scored just 16.6 points per game makes this just a lean and not my preference.
To avoid any reliance on Florida International, my preferred play is UTSA to eclipse the lofty team total of 48.5. The Panthers will struggle to stop a Roadrunners offense that will be the second-best they've faced all season.
Pick: UTSA Team Total Over 48.5 (Play to 50)
