Few things go better together than Thanksgiving and football. Luckily, that's exactly what we have today with a three-game NFL schedule and two-game college football slate.
Thursday's college football slate features a battle between the Tuskegee Golden Tigers and FCS Alabama State at 2 p.m. ET on ESPNU, along with the main event of Memphis vs. Tulane at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Our college football writers broke down both games and came through with a pick for each. So, whether you're looking to bet an under-the-radar game or cash in on a AAC Championship program, we have you covered.
Continue reading for full college football odds and NCAAF picks for the Thanksgiving games on Thursday, Nov. 28.
College Football Odds, Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Thursday's slate of Thanksgiving NCAAF games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tuskegee vs. Alabama State Pick
By Joshua Nunn
The Tuskegee Golden Tigers (5-5, 5-3) take on the Alabama State Hornets (6-5, 5-3 SWAC) in the 100th edition of the Thanksgiving Day “Turkey Classic” on Thursday, Nov. 28. This game kicks off at 2 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ESPNU.
This will be the final game of the season for both of these proud HBCU squads and a great way to for HBCU football to showcase itself on national TV.
While there is no line on this game as of writing, Alabama State is projected as a -24 favorite in the contest with the over/under projected at 44.5.
Let's dive into my Tuskegee vs. Alabama State predictions and college football picks for Thursday, Nov. 28.
Tuskegee Golden Tigers
Tuskegee has been idle since a Nov. 9 home loss at the hands of Miles College.
The Golden Tigers have struggled through a middling up-and-down season that saw a three-game losing streak to open the season followed by five straight conference wins before losing their last two.
The team competes in the Division II SIAC conference, which is regarded as one of the weaker Division II conferences with teams rarely finding wins outside of the conference schedule or favorably scheduled NAIA opponents.
Tuskegee's defensive line is undersized, coming in with only one player above 300 pounds. Now, it'll face a heavy dose of rushing attempts from Alabama State.
The Hornets have run for 200-plus yards five times this season, including a game against a common opponent: Miles College. ASU won that game, 24-3.
Alabama State Hornets
Alabama State comes in off a victory last week over Prairie View A&M by a score of 9-6.
The Hornets have found themselves in lower-scoring defensive bouts all season, as the offense has struggled to pass the football and relies heavily on the run game.
The Hornet defense has been the best unit in the SWAC all season and has routinely frustrated opposing offenses week in and week out.
The stop unit has held foes to just 17.6 points per game and has been especially tough up front. Alabama State is holding teams to just 103 rushing yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry for the season.
This defense should show well in this game given the opponent, as the Hornets will have a significant talent edge here in the trenches.
Alabama State has done well to generate a pass rush and create Defensive Havoc all season. The Hornets have registered 36 sacks and 80 tackles for loss and have registered at least four sacks in four of their last five games.
With having a major talent edge over a Division II opponent, the Hornet defensive line should take over here. This advantage will be magnified if Tuskegee can't run the ball.
Tuskegee vs. Alabama State Prediction
While there's no line on this game as of writing, I would take the under in this matchup at 44.5 or higher.
The Hornets have significant talent edges in the trenches in this game, and Tuskegee will have a major challenge moving the football here.
The Golden Tigers have run the ball for just 137 yards per game with a 3.9 yards-per-carry average on the season. Well, Alabama State had the top rush defense in the SWAC, holding opponents to just 103 yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry on the season.
The Alabama State secondary has performed well all season, as the back-end unit has held eight opponents under 200 yards passing while racking up 15 interceptions.
The Golden Tigers don't have game-changing talent at the skill positions. In fact, zero pass-catchers have more than 500 yards on the season, and only one player has more than 22 catches.
In the late stages of this game when fatigue sets in, I can't see Tuskegee finding much offensive success.
When it comes to playing in close, Alabama State has been atrocious in the red zone this season. It has scored touchdowns on just 11-of-33 trips inside the 20-yard line. The Hornets have kicked an amazing 15 red-zone field goals this season.
Tuskegee has allowed red-zone touchdowns on only 48% of drives this season, and unless we see significant variance in coaching tendency or play-calling, I would expect the conservative approach to continue.
ASU also plays at a very slow pace, averaging 29 seconds between plays on the season while running the ball 65% of the time.
We should see a spirited effort on both sides here. Tuskegee has been game-planning for this one for nearly three weeks and should have a handle on what Alabama State wants to do offensively.
With two run heavy teams, a lack of explosive play-making ability and weak red-zone execution, I expect a defensive battle here.
Pick: Under 44.5 or Better
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Memphis vs. Tulane Pick
Before we get to the AAC Championship that features Tulane, the Green Wave (9-2, 7-0 AAC) will host the Memphis Tigers (9-2, 5-2) on Thursday, Nov. 28 for a Thanksgiving Day matchup.
Tulane and Army will meet in the AAC Championship on Friday, Dec. 6 at a location yet determined. The Green Wave and Black Knights are the only undefeated teams in conference play, leading every other member of the AAC by two games.
While Tulane and Army can lose their Week 14 contests, home-field advantage is at for both teams. If both Army and Tulane win Week 14, the College Football Playoff rankings may be the deciding factor on whether Yulman Stadium or Michie Stadium will host the AAC title game.
Memphis will look to spoil Tulane’s intentions of staying home in New Orleans the first week of December. The Tigers have suffered 2 conference losses, a 56-44 loss at Navy in Week 4 and a 44-36 trip to UTSA in Week 10. Both games were on the road and had a combined point total of 180 points.
Both teams are coming off a bye week, as Tulane enters as a -13.5 favorite with an over/under set at 55.
Let's dive into my Memphis vs. Tulane predictions and college football picks for Thursday, Nov. 28.
Memphis Tigers
There was a continuous signal that the Memphis defense had issues stopping AAC opponents before the UTSA loss. North Texas put 44 on the board in a highly explosive Week 8 contest. The Mean Green created 10 pass explosives with four offensive possessions averaging at least 10 yards per play.
Those struggles continued in Week 9 while hosting Charlotte, allowing the 49ers five yards per rush and a touchdown on every scoring opportunity.
The 3-3-5 defense has been poor in a number of basic fundamentals, ranking 124th in broken tackles allowed. The inability of the nickel secondary to stop offenses in one-on-one tackling situations has created a rank of 119th against the explosive rush.
Despite the issues in Rush EPA (Expected Points Added), the Tigers are 11th in our latest Havoc Rankings thanks to a high mark in forced fumbles.
Quarterback Seth Henigan has kept the offense humming thanks to a top-20 rank in offensive momentum killer.
Henigan has posted 28 big-time throws to just 12 turnover-worthy plays this season, indicating the passing has been more elite than his 21 touchdowns indicate.
Memphis ranks 13th in On-Target Rate, a statistic from Sports Info Solutions that measures the accuracy of hitting targets in stride.
When hitches and crossing routes aren't moving the chains, Memphis turns to Mario Anderson Jr. to lead a top-20 rushing attack that uses heavy zone-read concepts.
Tulane Green Wave
The Green Wave have left no doubt on over the previous three games, as five of their seven conference wins have come with a minimum 96% post-game win expectancy.
Losses to Oklahoma and Kansas State in nonconference play hindered Tulane from making a run as the top Group of Five team, but an AAC Championship appearance in head coach Jon Sumrall's first season is a major accomplishment.
Offensive coordinator Joe Craddock uses a heavy rush attack that utilizes a variety of concepts, including outside zone, power and man.
The centerpiece of the offense is running back Mahki Hughes, generating nearly 1,300 yards on the season with 15 touchdowns and 56 missed tackles forced.
The sophomore averages more than four yards after first contact, a lethal combination with an offensive line that's top-25 in Line Yards.
Good luck stopping Makhi Hughes#AmericanWay x @GreenWaveFBpic.twitter.com/N4K9q2FW2k
— The American (@American_Conf) October 5, 2024
The Tulane defense has been one of the best in the conference under coordinator Greg Gasparato’s nickel package.
The Green Wave sit top-25 in Havoc thanks to one of the best pass-rush units and a hard stop rank in the top five of all FBS defenses.
The numbers are even more impressive in passing downs, ranking top-five in both efficiency and explosives allowed.
Edge rushers Matthew Fobbs-White and Adin Huntington have created 39 pressures, while linebacker Tyler Grubbs leads the team with 25 stops, defined by PFF as a complete failure by the offense.
Memphis vs. Tulane Prediction
Action Network's projection calls for Tulane to be favored by 11, short of the current market set at two touchdowns. The bigger question is finding the motivation for this game, with Memphis projected for the Hawaii Bowl and Tulane’s upcoming conference championship game.
While Memphis is the look in regard to a side, there are defensive issues that have percolated down the stretch worth noting in this game.
The Tigers have given up a plenty of explosives against teams using man and outside zone — two of the biggest concepts used by the Green Wave offense.
Memphis ranks bottom-15 nationally in rush explosives allowed, an indication that Hughes should hit the Tigers with a few runs to get into scoring position.
Memphis also sits 70th in Defensive Finishing Drives — a poor number in defending the extended red zone considering a strength of schedule of 132nd.
The next question is Memphis' ability to join Tulane on the scoreboard.
While the overall numbers from Henigan have not made the Tigers one of the more explosive offenses in the nation, the numbers in early downs tell a different story.
Memphis has one of the highest rates nationally in choosing pass on first downs, as the Tigers will go right at a secondary that ranks 29th in creating contested catches.
The Tulane defense has struggled with broken tackles as well, ranking 127th in that area this season. The bigger number in the analytics is standard downs explosives, as Tulane allows a big play at one of the worst rates in the country.
Look for Henigan and Memphis to get down the field early in standard downs, taking advantage of a defense that's 121st in Standard Downs EPA Allowed.
Tulane will also have success on the ground with run concepts that Memphis has been unable to defend all season.
Our Action Network total projection comes in at 56.5, just above the biggest key number in totals. Buying a half-point on totals is only considered around the key of 55, as the juice on this number should be limited to -120 or better.
Pick: Over 55 (-120 or Better)
