Boise State vs. Fresno State Odds
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 61 -105o / -115o | +170 |
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 61 -105o / -115o | -200 |
Boise State (4-4, 2-2 Mountain West) travels to Fresno, California, to square up with Fresno State (7-2, 4-1 MWC) on Saturday evening.
Bulldog Stadium sold out after Fresno State entered the College Football Playoff selection committee rankings for the sixth time. This is the 23rd meeting all-time between the two programs.
The Bulldogs will be playing for hardware for the second straight week, competing for the Milk Can Trophy. The two programs have battled over the award since 2005. The rivalry extends well beyond the two programs and has ensnared loyal dairy boosters from both states, hence the creation of the Milk Can trophy.
Fresno State lost the last regular-season affair between the two schools in 2018 but went on to redeem itself in the Mountain West Championship game in overtime.
Fresno State will look to continue its ascension in the Mountain West with eyes on the conference championship game. The Bulldogs have been propelled by a prolific passing offense and a defense that has been able to hold their own.
Boise State has been scrapy and looks to position itself for bowl eligibility in the coming weeks.
Will the Bulldogs hoist the Milk Can in their quest for Mountain West dominance? Or will Boise State be able to continue their streak of 13 straight conference road wins which dates back to 2017 after a road loss to Fresno State?
Boise State Broncos
Boise State Offense
Junior quarterback Hank Bachmeier led the Broncos to victory last week against Colorado State. The Broncos overcame a 13-0 first-quarter deficit en route to a 29-19 win. Bachmeier threw for 253 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions after the slow start.
Senior wide receiver Octavius Evans was integral in the victory. He contributed two touchdowns — one rushing and one receiving. Evans is part of a deep receiving corps that supports Bachmeier.
Boise State ranks 66th in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 29.3 points per game.
The Bronco offense is one-dimensional, only seeing success in the passing game. The Boise pass offense ranks 29th in FBS, averaging 275.5 yards per game. The lackluster rushing offense ranks 123rd, rushing for under 100 yards per game.
Sophomore kicker Jonah Dalmas has been clutch this season for the Broncos. He's made 88.2% of his field goals this season, tying for fifth nationally in field goals per game and sits tied for 23rd in the country in scoring with an average of nine points per game.
Dalmas has been announced as one of the 20 finalists for the Lou Groza Award, given annually to the nation’s top kicker.
Boise State Defense
The Bronco defense ranks 84th in the nation in total defense, allowing 403.1 yards per game. The pass defense has been the strength of the unit, only giving up 216.5 yards per game.
Unfortunately, it's been gouged by the run. The Broncos are allowing 186.63 yards per game on the ground, which ranks in the bottom quartile of FBS at 104th nationally.
Boise State will have to lean on its secondary to have a chance to hang with Fresno State. Junior safety JL Skinner leads the team with 65 tackles. Fifth-year defensive back Kekaula Kaniho and the rest of the Boise State secondary will be integral in taking the wind out of Fresno State’s passing game.
Fresno State Bulldogs
Fresno State Offense
The Bulldog offense has been on a tear this season. The unit ranks 13th in the nation in total offense, averaging 480.4 yards per game.
This is a team that clearly likes to pass the ball and has done so behind senior quarterback Jake Haener. Haener has six 300 yard passing games this year and has thrown 23 touchdowns to only six interceptions.
Last week proved to be the Jordan Mims Show against San Diego State. The senior running back rushed for 186 yards and two touchdowns against a tough Aztec defense. Look for Mims and the Bulldog rushing attack to be featured heavily against a struggling Bronco run defense.
Junior wide receiver, Erik Brooks, has been named as a nominee for the Burlsworth Trophy, awarded to the most outstanding player in the country who began their career as a walk-on.
Fresno State Defense
The Bulldogs are tied for 31st in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 20.8 points per game.
They rank 60th in the nation in passing defense, giving up 222.9 yards per game. The Bulldogs will need to batten down the hatches in the secondary because they will be under attack all game from the Broncos, who will have to rely heavily on the pass to counteract a laggard rushing attack.
Junior defensive back Evan Williams was named the Paycom Jim Thorpe Player of the Week after the Bulldogs' win over San Diego State. In the Week 9 contest, Williams racked up 13 tackles (11 solo) and one interception. He was also named the Mountain West Defensive Player of the week.
This has been a breakout season for Williams, who leads the team in tackles with 71. Additionally, he has 4.5 tackles for loss, three interceptions, two fumble recoveries and one forced fumble. Look for the defensive playmaker to be front and center all game.
Boise State vs. Fresno State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Boise State and Fresno State match up statistically:
Boise State Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 119 | 48 | |
| Line Yards | 127 | 28 | |
| Pass Success | 21 | 11 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 99 | 36 | |
| Big Play | 71 | 32 | |
| Havoc | 66 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | 57 | 52 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Fresno State Offense vs. Boise State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 100 | 53 | |
| Line Yards | 111 | 67 | |
| Pass Success | 7 | 39 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 90 | 91 |  |
| Big Play | 32 | 108 | |
| Havoc | 39 | 86 | |
| Finishing Drives | 75 | 28 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 53 | 39 |
| Coverage | 18 | 9 |
| Middle 8 | 79 | 37 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 21 | 76 |
| Plays per Minute | 27 | 50 |
| Rush Rate | 51.% (92) | 45.2% (121) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Boise State vs. Fresno State Betting Pick
Fresno State is undefeated at home this season and looking to capture the Milk Can trophy with a victory over Boise State.
The Bulldogs have been excellent against the spread this season, covering a remarkable 6-of-9 (66.7%) games so far this season. Boise State has also been solid against the line, going 5-3 (62.5%) against the number.
Fresno State is the better team, and that is reflected based on traditional yardage and point statistics. Fresno State ranks ahead of Boise in scoring offense, scoring defense, total offense and total defense.
When looking at one of the most significant measure in college football, Success Rate, Fresno again wins the battle. It ranks 33rd and 20th in Offensive and Defensive Success Rate nationally, while Boise State ranks 69th and 47th in the same metrics, respectively.
The Fresno State defense will be prepared for the one-dimensional Boise State offense that can only pass the ball. Look for the Bulldogs to exploit the weak Boise State rushing defense.
Haener will also have plenty of time to pick apart the Boise secondary once the run game is established.
My model projects Fresno State as 8.86-point favorites based on a multi-factor model of the independent variables referenced in this article. Lay the points in Fresno, and enjoy a nice glass of milk with your winnings.
Pick: Fresno State -5.5 (Play to -6.5)
