Coastal Carolina vs. South Alabama Odds
| Coastal Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15 -110 | 55 -115o / -105u | -720 |
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15 -110 | 55 -115o / -105u | +500 |
Coastal Carolina won't be representing its division in the Sun Belt Championship game, but the Chanticleers still have the opportunity to secure their second straight season of double-digit wins on the road in Mobile.
The Chants enter this game with a 9-2 record, with its two losses coming to Appalachian State on the road and to Georgia State when starting quarterback Grayson McCall was out with injury.
South Alabama is coming off a blowout 60-14 loss to Tennessee last week and will need to pull off an upset here if it wants to end up in a bowl game.
The Jaguars have been plenty feisty in conference play overall this season, but an injury to quarterback Jake Bentley has caused the Jaguars to slip over recent weeks.
Coastal Carolina finally has its stud signal-caller back in the fold and will look to end the season on a high note. The Chants have blown out plenty of the teams on its schedule, so will it add South Alabama to that list on Friday?
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Coastal Carolina Offense
Despite being without starting quarterback Grayson McCall for two games, the Chanticleers still enter this game ranked third in expected points added (EPA) per play on the year. McCall has been incredibly efficient when on the field and is comfortably leading the country in yards per attempt, at 12.8.
To put into context how ridiculous his efficiency has been, the 2.5-yard gap between McCall and UAB's Dylan Hopkins (second in the country, at 10.3 per attempt) is the same size as the gap between Hopkins and the 58th-ranked quarterback.
McCall's supporting cast can't be overlooked, though, as you'd have a very hard time finding a better duo of pass-catchers in the Group of Five than tight end Isaiah Likely and receiver Jaivon Heiligh.
Likely's 94.4 PFF receiving grade ranks second among all pass-catchers — not just tight ends — and he's comfortably leading his position in yards per route run. Looking at Heiligh, he ranks eighth at his position in receiving grade and 15th in passer rating when targeted.
Coastal's ground game probably doesn't get as much shine as it deserves because it gets overshadowed by the passing game, but the Chants still rank 11th in Rushing Success Rate.
Expect a big workload for running back Shermari Jones in this game because second-stringer Reese White will be out this week.
Coastal Carolina Defense
The weakest area of the Coastal Carolina defense has been against the run, where the Chants rank 67th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
The defense hasn't faced many potent ground games this season, but allowing 5.9 yards per carry to a bad Texas State offense last week was a red flag, and it's struggled against Appalachian State and Buffalo as well.
The good news here is that South Alabama has been awful at moving the ball on the ground, though.
The pass defense has been better, ranking 15th in terms of Success Rate, and the pass rush has been a major reason why. Coastal's pass rush has graded at 11th in the country per PFF, with edge defender Josaiah Stewart tied for ninth in the country in sacks.
This group will look to cause a lot of Havoc on South Alabama backup quarterback Desmond Trotter behind an extremely leaky offensive line.
South Alabama Jaguars
South Alabama Offense
Quarterback Jake Bentley is currently on his third team in his sixth year of college football after stops at South Carolina and Utah.
He was playing very well for this team before going down with an injury, with top-30 ranks in PFF passing grade and adjusted completion percentage.
The drop-off from Bentley to Trotter has been very noticeable, though, as Trotter is currently averaging just 5.7 yards per attempt to Bentley's 8.1.
At receiver, the Jaguars have a future NFL player in Jalen Tolbert, who currently ranks third in the nation in receiving yards. With his 6-foot-3, 190-pound frame, he's averaging seven catches and 122.3 yards per game against FBS competition and is coming off a 143-yard outing against Tennessee last week.
South Alabama's offensive line has made it tough in both facets as it's currently grading out as the worst run-blocking unit in the country, per PFF, and 119th in pass protection.
The run game has been the most negatively affected by the line's play, though, which ranks 112th in EPA per carry and 120th in yards before contact per attempt.
To take advantage of Coastal's weaknesses, the ground game is a good way to do it, but a weak Chanticleer front should still have the advantage there.
South Alabama Defense
South Alabama has a shot to be one of the few defenses to slow down Coastal's passing game to any degree, as it ranks 23rd in EPA allowed per pass on the year.
It hasn't done much in the pass rush, but the coverage has been strong and features one of the country's best cornerbacks in Darrell Luter Jr., who ranks ninth in coverage grade at the position.
He has some absurd stats in coverage, allowing just 12 receptions and zero touchdowns on 49 targets (24.4% completion percentage), for an NFL passer rating of just 5.8, which looks like a typo. For reference, throwing the ball into the seventh row on every play would result in a passer rating of 39.6. Maybe avoid throwing at that guy.
The Jaguars have been solid against the ground as well, but they have had some issues with explosiveness. Overall, though, this defense has been very solid and ranks 26th in points allowed per drive.
Coastal Carolina vs. South Alabama Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Coastal Carolina and South Alabama match up statistically:
Coastal Carolina Offense vs. South Alabama Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 11 | 10 |  |
| Line Yards | 12 | 4 | |
| Pass Success | 13 | 52 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 53 | 72 | |
| Big Play | 2 | 57 | |
| Havoc | 33 | 61 | |
| Finishing Drives | 1 | 16 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
South Alabama Offense vs. Coastal Carolina Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 100 | 67 | |
| Line Yards | 103 | 63 | |
| Pass Success | 67 | 15 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 116 | 17 | |
| Big Play | 116 | 53 | |
| Havoc | 115 | 26 | |
| Finishing Drives | 98 | 95 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 24 | 100 |
| Coverage | 60 | 56 |
| Middle 8 | 4 | 45 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 87 | 96 |
| Plays per Minute | 125 | 90 |
| Rush Rate | 62.2% (17) | 53.2% (79) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Coastal Carolina vs. South Alabama Betting Pick
South Alabama's Bentley tore his MCL just a few weeks ago, but he popped up in warmups before last week's game even though he did not end up playing.
I have no idea how or why he's still trying to give it a go with one of his knee ligaments unattached, but you at least have to consider the possibility of him playing. His mobility would likely be awful, which would obviously impact his play, but based on what we know, there's a shot he suits up here.
Assuming he doesn't play, I would have this projected at 17.8 in favor of Coastal Carolina. I just don't see South Alabama having the offensive firepower to keep pace with this incredibly efficient Chanticleer offense.
This is a good spot to back the Chants against a team that has a significant gap between its starting and backup quarterbacks.
