Since 2005, no team has enjoyed more success as a home favorite against the spread in conference play than Oregon. Over that span, the Ducks have gone 73-53-3 (57.9%) ATS when laying points against Pac-12 foes, and I think they add another cover to that list.
I didn't get involved with Colorado in the first two games of the season but felt confident enough to fade the Buffaloes last week after gathering their first two data points. Fortunately, I never had to sweat the Rams covering three touchdowns in a double-overtime thriller.
Well, with another data point in hand, I have no issues fading Colorado once again.
Look, Deion has already done a tremendous job in Boulder in such a short period of time. It's hard to put into words how bad this team was in 2022.
However, while improved, the roster still has major holes, specifically along the offensive line and across the entire defense, especially now without injured two-way star Travis Hunter, who will miss a few weeks.
If we dig a little deeper into Colorado's three results so far, it shocked TCU in the season opener but likely benefited immensely from the Horned Frogs having no idea what to expect from the Colorado offense. Then, Nebraska literally fumbled the game away with completely incompetent quarterback play. Then, it should have lost at home to a pretty bad Colorado State team that committed 17 penalties for 182 yards.
I just don't see a world where home Bo Nix doesn't march the potent Duck offense up and down the field all day long in Autzen Stadium. Meanwhile, Dan Lanning should have a very astute game plan to slow down this one-dimensional Colorado attack after getting three games of film.
The improved Oregon pass rush should also wreak Havoc in the backfield on the known passing downs that Colorado has made an unsustainable living on through three games. Plus, I think Oregon wants to run this up to make a statement, so I don't envision the foot stepping off the gas with a big lead, especially with Stanford followed by a bye week on deck.
Bo Nix Heisman hype season should be in full effect.
I'm waiting to see if any Colorado money comes in before locking in -21, which is what I'd play this up to.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, in games between two ranked opponents, favorites of 17 or more points have gone 38-23 ATS (62.3%), covering by 4.7 points per game. That includes a 14-4 ATS mark (70%) when favored by 21-plus against a conference opponent.
