Colorado State vs. Hawaii Odds
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 54 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 54 -110o / -110u | +115 |
After Week 12, bettors no longer have the luxury of scanning the college football board at 11 p.m. ET on Saturday night, looking for a bailout play.
Saturday's nightcap between Colorado State and Hawaii is the final late kick on the island in 2021.
If that's not a kick in the you-know-what, I'm not sure what is.
The Rams are laying chalk on the road, despite just a 3-7 record in 2021. The Rainbow Warriors, meanwhile, are 4-7 and looking to close the season out on a bright note.
Here's how I'd bet the final game on Saturday's card.
Colorado State Rams
CSU peaked in late September, winning four straight games against the spread and covering all four by at least 14 points.
The Rams have faltered since.
They enter Saturday's game as losers of four straight, both outright and against the number. They've been spotty as favorites, going just 2-4, with all four losses straight-up.
Colorado State welcomed shootouts in the Mike Bobo era. But under Steve Addazio, the strength of the team is the defense.
The Rams are top-30 nationally in both Rush and Pass Success while grading out as one of the better tackling programs in the Group of Five.
Overall, they've gone under the total in eight straight games against the teams with losing records and eight of the last 11 when laying chalk.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Did Hawaii call it a season after beating Fresno State as an 11.5-point underdog back in Week 5?
Similar to the Rams, the Rainbow Warriors come into Saturday limping. They've yet to cover a game since the aforementioned upset, going 0-4-1 against the spread and 1-4 overall across the last five.
The offense, in particular, has scuffled, failing to score more than 31 points in four of those.
Todd Graham's unit likes to chuck, ranking top-20 nationally in pass rate. However, the production has been spotty. Despite the heavy volume, the Rainbow Warriors rank just 97th in Pass Success.
Hawaii has played four games as a home 'dog in 2021. The under has cashed in all four, with no total surpassing 54 combined points.
Colorado State vs. Hawaii Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Colorado State and Hawaii match up statistically:
Colorado State Offense vs. Hawaii Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 103 | 62 | |
| Line Yards | 77 | 42 | |
| Pass Success | 72 | 101 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 103 | 37 | |
| Big Play | 88 | 49 | |
| Havoc | 14 | 70 | |
| Finishing Drives | 114 | 17 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Hawaii Offense vs. Colorado State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 63 | 30 | |
| Line Yards | 61 | 58 |  |
| Pass Success | 97 | 3 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 35 | 13 | |
| Big Play | 41 | 46 | |
| Havoc | 123 | 77 | |
| Finishing Drives | 110 | 56 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 29 | 72 |
| Coverage | 27 | 109 |
| Middle 8 | 86 | 115 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 46 | 1 |
| Plays per Minute | 12 | 17 |
| Rush Rate | 57.3% (51) | 47.8% (111) |
Colorado State vs. Hawaii Betting Pick
I expect points to be at a premium Saturday.
Hawaii was once synonymous with overs, but the trend has seemingly flipped — the Rainbow Warriors are quietly 14-3 to the under in their last 17 conference games.
Not only is Hawaii's passing game outmatched by a stout secondary Saturday, it'll also battle the wind.
Forecasts are calling for 15 MPH gusts on the island, which fits one of our top-rated betting total systems in Week 12.
