Duke vs. Virginia Tech Odds
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 +100 | 52 -105o / -115u | +340 |
| Virginia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -120 | 52 -105o / -115u | -450 |
The season has gone array for both Virginia Tech and Duke in the ACC Coastal since conference play began.
The Hokies have two wins in conference play, one of which came against North Carolina in the opening week. VT's loss to Boston College last week gave the Eagles their first conference win, while this week's opponent is still looking for its first league win too.
Duke had a solid 3-1 showing in the non-conference portion of its schedule, but that was against inferior opposition. The Blue Devils have been blown out in four of their five conference games, with the defense having fallen through the floor and the offense proving unable to keep up with the opposition.
Calls for Virginia Tech head coach Justin Fuente to be fired increase by the week, and losses to Syracuse and BC have hurt their bowl chances considerably. With both defenses really struggling to stop the other's strength and motivation in question for both sides, this game could be wonky and will feature plenty of points.
Duke Blue Devils
Duke Offense
Duke is a run-first offense behind stud back Mataeo Durant, and it plays at a fast pace. The Blue Devils don't have a ton going for them in the passing game, but they may not need that in this game on Saturday.
Durant is one of the few things the Blue Devils have going for them, having managed seven points against UNC, zero against Virginia in one of the worst offensive performances of the season and seven against Wake Forest's porous defense.
Duke showed signs of life last week though, managing 29 points against a solid Pittsburgh defensive front. The Blue Devils defense may have quit and have a ton of injuries, but Durant should be enough against a bad VT run defense to post some points.
Duke Defense
Duke's defense isn't just the worst in all of the ACC, but it might be one of the worst in all of Power 5 and FBS football.
The Blue Devils have allowed at least 45 points in each of the last three games. While Virginia, Pittsburgh and Wake Forest all have excellent offenses, there was stunningly little resistance from Duke.
The Blue Devils are outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate allowed and big plays allowed. They don't stop teams from scoring touchdowns once they cross the 40-yard line, they don't rush the passer and are outside the top 100 in PFF tackling grades.
It's a unit that has certainly looked like it has quit the last few weeks and I want no part of trying to bet on them given that.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech Offense
The health status of quarterback Braxton Burmeister remains uncertain for this game, according to Fuente. Burmeister left the game against Boston College with an early injury and never returned, and the Hokies had zero offense without him.
For the season, VT's offense has been a middling group. The Hokies have statistical edges against Duke across the board, from passing down EPA per play to rushing explosiveness, but a lot of that has more to do with how bad the Duke defense is than how good the VT offense is.
If Burmeister plays, he should be able to use his legs to help keep the chains moving, and the Hokies have more than enough explosiveness to put up easy points on a very vulnerable Duke defense.
Virginia Tech Defense
VT is 105th in Defensive Line Yards and 90th in Rushing Success Rate allowed, so there shouldn't be too much resistance from the Hokies to prevent success from Duke rushing the ball. In recent weeks, both Syracuse and Boston College ran successfully both on a play-to-play and explosive-play basis.
The Hokies have a solid secondary and don't allow teams to complete passes easily against them, but that won't matter too much for this game. Virginia Tech's tackling deficiencies make for a nightmare matchup against Durant and a big Duke offensive line that should be able to push the Hokies around.
Both teams have major issues turning drives into points, but given how successful I'm expecting the run game to be for both sides, scoring touchdowns in goal-to-go situations should be improved.
Duke vs. Virginia Tech Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Duke and Virginia Tech match up statistically:
Duke Offense vs. Virginia Tech Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 60 | 90 | |
| Line Yards | 44 | 105 | |
| Pass Success | 47 | 5 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 67 | 71 |  |
| Big Play | 59 | 24 | |
| Havoc | 93 | 79 | |
| Finishing Drives | 116 | 74 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Virginia Tech Offense vs. Duke Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 90 | 101 | |
| Line Yards | 70 | 83 | |
| Pass Success | 108 | 77 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 23 | 88 | |
| Big Play | 95 | 104 | |
| Havoc | 52 | 55 | |
| Finishing Drives | 120 | 121 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 102 | 79 |
| Coverage | 89 | 68 |
| Middle 8 | 118 | 99 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 97 | 37 |
| Plays per Minute | 6 | 80 |
| Rush Rate | 58.1% (44) | 60.% (28) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Duke vs. Virginia Tech Betting Pick
The line is showing very little respect to Duke, as the market is trying to catch up to just how bad this Blue Devils squad really is.
They've been crushed in all but one ACC game and haven't been able to stop anyone for weeks. The non-conference wins against Northwestern, Kansas and North Carolina A&T don't exactly impress, either.
Duke's offense should be able to move the ball against a terrible Virginia Tech run defense though and given the Blue Devils fast pace, they should be able to get into the 20s offensively and help this game go over.
Even if Duke has quit and may get blown out yet again, they'll do enough offensively to help put up points and get this game over 51. This line opened 49 and has been bet up to 51, but until it gets to 51.5, I still see value on over.
It remains unclear if Burmeister will be able to play on Saturday, but if he's able to go, I'd play the over at anything 51 or better. Fifty-one is a relatively key number, though, so anything above that becomes a bit too expensive to play.
Pick: Over 51
