Week 12 of the college football season is here, and Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is on top of it.
After taking James Madison to cover against Georgia State last week, he'll look to move to 2-0 on his early bets when the Penn State Nittany Lions head to West Lafayette to take on the Purdue Boilermakers.
Like all sports, grabbing the best number when lines come out is paramount when it comes to betting college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet.
Ideally, that could all be avoided by locking in the best number early in the week. That's going to be the goal for this Saturday afternoon Big Ten battle.
Continue reading for college football odds, NCAAF picks and early bets for Week 12.
Penn State vs. Purdue Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-28 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -15000 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+28 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +2200 |
There's no doubt the College Football Playoff selection committee has created a bubble dynamic.
A dozen teams will compete for the National Championship in the new 12-team bracket structure, but at-large teams or Group of Five champions filling the 5-11 seeds must finish strong.
Head coaches know that without a conference championship, the first-round seeds will be given to teams that pass the proverbial "eye test" down the stretch.
A number of teams in this seed range already ran opponents out of the building in Week 11. Here are a few teams currently holding a CFP position and their Week 11 result as a double-digit favorite:
- No. 2 Ohio State over Purdue, 45-0
- No. 5 Texas over Florida, 49-17
- No. 6 Penn State over Washington, 35-6
- No. 10 Notre Dame over Florida State, 52-3
Two teams on that list will meet in Week 12, as Penn State continues its beauty pageant at Purdue.
The Boilermakers have been atrocious in 2024, holding a 1-8 record both straight up and against the spread.
The Purdue offense has been held to six total points in recent games against Ohio State, Oregon and Wisconsin. Along with the Badgers, Illinois also put up 50 points against the Boilermaker defense less than a month ago.
As of writing, Purdue head coach Ryan Walters still has his job despite sitting on the hottest seat in college football. Look no further than Walters settling for a field goal inside the 5-yard line against Ohio State when his team had nothing to lose.
Ryan Walters deserves this FG being missed by electing not to go for it from the 3 yard line when you are 1-7.
Truly embarrassing.pic.twitter.com/QI1qGolPPm
— Zach Vogt (@ZachVogt30) November 9, 2024
When looking at the analytics for this Week 12 game, it becomes clear that Purdue doesn't have a single advantage in the head-to-head matchup against Penn State.
While the Nittany Lions sit top-10 in Rushing Success Rate and Passing Success Rate, the Boilermakers come in at 85th and 129th in those categories defensively. To make matters worse, a similar story ensues on the other side of the ball.
Expect Penn State head coach James Franklin to take advantage of Purdue's miserable 2024 campaign to prop up the Nittany Lions' standing with the committee.
Pick: Penn State -28 (Play to -31)
