While it was great to have a few games in Week 0, this week marks college football's true kickoff. With 96 games spanning from Thursday to Monday, we have plenty of opportunities ahead of us.
The goal of this weekly column is to find bets to make early in the week to get the best possible price before kickoff. That includes two games I'm targeting on Week 1's Saturday slate.
With money pouring in from the time lines open on Sunday until kickoff on Saturday, the market clearly moves a lot over the course of a week. That means it's paramount to get the best price possible when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It happens every week.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 on Sunday afternoon.
I'm here to help you navigate the market by providing a few lines I'm buying right now — or other lines that I'm waiting to buy later in the week.
In an attempt to beat the market and get the best price, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
You hear all the time, "Process over results." The best way to know if the process is working is by closing line value (CLV), meaning how many points did you beat the closing line by? Well, I'm here to help you hopefully get the most CLV possible early on in the week so you're sitting in a great position by the time we reach Saturday.
Boise State vs. Georgia Southern Pick
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -115 | 57.5 -105o / -115u | -490 |
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -105 | 57.5 -105o / -115u | +365 |
Boise State vs. Georgia Southern Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Boise State -14.8 | Boise State -13.1 | Boise State -15.8 |
Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson is making a bold decision at quarterback for the opener.
Highly touted five-star freshman Malachi Nelson transferred in from USC, but Danielson has opted to go with redshirt sophomore Maddux Madsen as the starting quarterback.
The pressure won't be on Madsen to throw the ball, though, because Boise State features a rush-heavy attack. The Broncos ran the ball on 59.8% of their offensive plays last season because they have a great running back in Ashton Jeanty.
Jeanty, a fourth-team All-American last season, averaged 6.1 yards per carry and put up a PFF rushing grade of 93.5 — the fifth-best mark in college football.
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
• Elite contact balance to absorb hits and keep moving
• Agility and vision in open space to slip defenders
• Good vision in both zone and gap
• Dependable receiving back with big gain consistency
• Good initial burst to hit gaps pic.twitter.com/YhJnwhtuWj— NTB_43 (@NTB_43) August 22, 2024
Boise State returns a lot of experience on the offensive line with four players who started at least seven games last year. After ranking 14th in Offensive Line Yards, there shouldn't be much of a drop-off.
Georgia Southern has everyone back in its front seven, but the Eagles really struggled to stop the run, ranking 118th in EPA/Rush Allowed.
Starting quarterback Davis Brin has moved on, which means 2023 backup JC French takes over as the starter. French, a three-star recruit coming out of high school, attempted only 16 passes last season.
This will now be the offense's third season under head coach Clay Helton. Switching from a triple-option attack to a pass-heavy system, the offense has taken time to reach its full potential.
French is going to have his hands full in the opener here because not only does Boise State return all 11 starters on the defensive side of the ball, but the Eagles also lost both of their starting tackles from last season. So, French could be under some pressure here in the opener.
All three projection models are showing value on the Broncos, so I like the value on them at -12.5.
Pick: Boise State -12.5 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
James Madison vs. Charlotte Pick
| James Madison Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -230 |
| Charlotte Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
James Madison vs. Charlotte Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| James Madison -7.3 | James Madison -8.0 | James Madison -16.3 |
James Madison begins a new era in 2024 under head coach Bob Chesney, who has won everywhere he's coached.
He was most recently at Holy Cross for five years, going 44-21 in his time there. Despite Curt Cignetti leaving for Indiana and taking plenty of players with him, the Dukes are poised to continue their success after an 11-2 season.
Chesney's first big move as head coach was to pick up former Washington quarterback Dylan Morris out of the transfer portal. Morris was a backup the last two seasons but started the entire 2021 season before the arrival of Michael Penix Jr.
He had mixed results and averaged only 6.8 yards per attempt. However, he won't have a ton of pressure to throw the ball a lot in Harrisonburg.
Chesney brought with him Holy Cross offensive coordinator Dean Kennedy, who utilized a run-heavy offense. Under his tutelage, the Crusaders ran the ball on 68% of offensive plays last season.
Because James Madison is transitioning from a pass-heavy offense, it needs a really good running back to make it work. Boy, did it find one in Ayo Adeyi from North Texas.
Adeyi became the starter for the Mean Green in Week 6 and never looked back. He averaged a whopping 7.1 yards per carry and put up a PFF rushing grade of 88.8. And despite standing only 5-foot-8, the bruiser averaged 3.9 yards after contact.
There's a wealth of experience on the offensive line as well, which should give James Madison a really effective rushing attack.
What a run, Ayo Adeyi 😤 pic.twitter.com/3Z9itanGf1
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) October 7, 2023
Charlotte boasted a very average run defense last season but loses its top two linebackers and six of its top eight tacklers, so Adeyi should have a field day on the ground.
The 49ers offense was, for lack of a better word, putrid last year. They ranked 130th in Offensive Success Rate and 128th in Finishing Drives, which is why they averaged just 17.5 points per game.
They brought in former Florida quarterback Max Brown to be their starter, but going off of his lone start for the Gators, it doesn't look like the 49ers offense will drastically improve this season. Brown started the regular-season finale against Florida State last season and went 9-for-17 for 86 yards with five turnover-worthy plays.
Biff Poggi brought in a lot of Power 4 transfers on the offensive side of the ball, so the potential is there. However, it'll take some time to click.
The composite projection between the three models is James Madison -10.5, so I like the value on the Dukes at -6.5.
Pick: James Madison -6 (bet365)
