Week 5 is in the books, and it ended with one of the best games of all time in Tuscaloosa. Alabama beat Georgia in a 41-34 thriller that featured two late scores by both teams on back-to-back plays.
Now, it's time to move on to Week 6.
Although there aren't many high-profile matchups in Week 6, there are plenty of betting opportunities.
I see some early betting value on three games around the country: Pitt vs. North Carolina, Nevada vs. San Jose State and USC vs. Minnesota.
The goal of this weekly column is to find bets to make early in the week to get the best possible price before kickoff, which is paramount when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It happens every week.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 on Sunday afternoon.
In an attempt to beat the market and get the best price, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
Pitt vs. UNC Pick
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
Pitt vs. North Carolina Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| North Carolina -1.0 | North Carolina -3.2 | North Carolina -0.2 |
Pitt really shouldn't be the favorite on the road even if North Carolina is coming off two straight losses.
The Panthers' offensive numbers look really good right now, but that's because they put up 52 points against Kent State in the first game of the season and 71 points against Youngstown State.
In their other two wins against Cincinnati and West Virginia, they needed to overcome double-digit fourth-quarter deficits to pull off the victory.
It's also worth noting that Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein is a turnover waiting to happen. So far through four games, he has eight turnover-worthy plays compared to only six big-time throws., per PFF. He wasn't very good in his lone road start at Cincinnati, posting a PFF passing grade of just 38.9.
Now, he'll face a North Carolina secondary that has really only played one bad game this season. Last weekend against Duke, it held Maalik Murphy to only 6.1 yards per attempt and 209 yards passing.
Pitt running back Desmond Reid has been effective on the ground for the most part this season, but he was completely shut down for only 26 total yards against West Virginia.
Even with that bad game against James Madison, North Carolina is still 28th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, so it should be able to slow down Reid and force Holstein into some dangerous throws.
North Carolina has made a change at quarterback, going to Jacolby Criswell. He's been good through his first two starts, averaging eight yards per attempt. He has been especially solid in play-action situations, as he has an 82.3 PFF passing grade with a play fake.
That's important because North Carolina's offense is dependent on running back Omarion Hampton. He's been great this season, averaging 5.8 yards per carry while posting has 20 runs of at least 10 yards.
The offensive line is doing a great job of creating holes for him, ranking 32nd in Offensive Line Yards and 11th in Stuff Rate Allowed.
In its two games against Cincinnati and West Virginia, Pittsburgh allowed well over four yards per carry. Plus, the real weakness of the defense — the secondary — ranks outside the top 100 in EPA/Pass Allowed.
So if North Carolina can run the ball effectively and get Criswell into play-action situations, it's going to find success.
All three projection models have North Carolina projected as a favortie, so I like the value on the Tar Heels at +2.5
Pick: North Carolina +2.5 (bet365)
Nevada vs. San Jose State Pick
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | +222 |
| San Jose State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -278 |
Nevada vs. San Jose State Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| San Jose State -10.5 | San Jose State -11.6 | San Jose State -12.5 |
San Jose State should be able to throw all over Nevada's secondary.
SJSU quarterback Emmett Brown is having a lot of success throwing the ball down the field this season. On throws over 20 yards in the air, he has 12 big-time throws to go along with a PFF passing grade of 88.8.
It's not only big-time throws, though, as San Jose State ranks 20th in Passing Success Rate thanks to one of the best wide receivers in all of college football, Nick Nash.
Nash is putting up crazy numbers this season, racking up over 600 yards receiving in only four games with a PFF receiving grade of 89.4 — the third-best mark in college football. He does pretty much all of his work out of the slot and is averaging a ridiculous 3.8 yards per route run.
The Nevada secondary has been getting lit up this season, ranking 93rd in EPA/Pass Allowed, so Brown and Nash should have huge games on Saturday night.
Nevada's offense is built on running the football, as the Wolf Pack own a rush rate of over 57% of their offensive plays. They've been effective against lower-tier opponents, but they were limited to only 1.9 yards per carry when they ran into Minnesota.
We found out in that game if quarterback Brendon Lewis could actually beat teams over the top. Well, the answer is a pretty firm "no." Lewis posted four turnover-worthy plays against the Golden Gophers while recording only 114 yards passing.
San Jose State ranks top-40 in both EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush Allowed, so I have real concerns as to whether Nevada's offense is going to be able to keep up with the Spartans.
All three projection models have San Jose State as a double-digit favorite, so I like the value on the Spartans at -7.
Pick: San Jose State -7 (Caesars)
USC vs. Minnesota Pick
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -105 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | -310 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -115 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | +245 |
USC vs. Minnesota Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| USC -8.6 | USC -5.8 | USC -4.7 |
This line is a little too high for USC.
Minnesota showed a lot of heart against Michigan on Saturday, coming all the way back to only lose by three.
Plus, quarterback Max Brosmer is getting better and better each week. He owns a PFF passing grade of 75.5 on the season and went 27-of-41 for 258 yards and a touchdown against a really good Michigan secondary last week.
The key for Minnesota, though, is running the ball effectively, which it hasn't been able to do the last two weeks because it has faced two of the best run defenses in the country in Iowa and Michigan.
Now, it will get a much more favorable matchup against a USC team that was terrible at defending Michigan's rushing attack. Everyone in the world knew the Wolverines couldn't throw the ball, and they still ran for 290 yards on 6.2 yards per carry against the Trojans.
Minnesota running back Darius Taylor has been running the ball really well, averaging over five yards per carry while already posting five touchdowns on the ground.
The Gophers' offensive line should also dominate USC in the trenches with the Trojans sitting outside the top 90 in both Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
On the other side, USC quarterback Miller Moss has been good overall this season. However, he struggled in his lone true road start at the Big House. Sure, USC broke off some big plays in the passing game, but he attempted over 50 passes in that game and barely completed 50% while averaging just 5.5 yards per attempt.
Minnesota has one of the best secondaries in the country right now, ranking third EPA/Pass Allowed, so it's going to be difficult for Moss to move the ball through air.
Meanwhile, USC running back Woody Marks has struggled a bit to run the ball in the last two games. Last weekend against Wisconsin, he was held to 3.3 yards per attempt. He broke off a 65-yard run against Michigan but racked up just 35 yards on his other 12 carries.
Plus, USC head coach Lincoln Riley is terrible in these spots as road favorite. I would be really surprised if the Trojans closed as a double-digit favorite in Minneapolis.
Pick: Minnesota +9.5 (FanDuel)
