Week 7 of the college football season is in the books, and we had a crazy Saturday. Oregon took down Ohio State in a battle between top-three teams, Alabama survived South Carolina, and Kansas State came from behind late in the fourth quarter to beat Colorado.
Now, it's time to move on to Week 8.
This weekend, the focus will be on the SEC, as Alabama and Tennessee battle in Knoxville at 3:30 p.m. ET and Georgia travels to Austin for a top-five showdown against Texas.
I see some early betting value on three games around the country: the aforementioned Georgia vs. Texas game, Virginia vs. Clemson and Iowa vs. Michigan State.
The goal of this weekly column is to find bets to make early in the week to get the best possible price before kickoff, which is paramount when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It happens every week.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 on Sunday afternoon.
In an attempt to beat the market and get the best price, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
Let's dive into college football odds and picks for Week 8.
Virginia vs. Clemson Pick
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21.5 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +1100 |
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21.5 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -2500 |
Virginia vs. Clemson Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Clemson -18.0 | Clemson -13.6 | Clemson -14.7 |
Clemson is rolling right now after blowing out Wake Forest, but it's getting a little too much love in the market here. The Tigers have blown out five straight opponents, but it hasn't come against the most difficult competition.
Some of their defensive numbers are also pretty shocking, specifically against the run.
The Tigers rank 116th in EPA/Rush Allowed because they're 118th in explosive rushing plays allowed.
However, none of the teams they've played could take advantage of that aspect because they all boast below-average rushing offenses.
Virginia's rushing offense, meanwhile, has been improving week after week.
The Cavaliers have a really good offensive line that has been paving the way for all of their rushers. The Hoos rank 25th in Offensive Line Yards and fifth in Stuff Rate Allowed, while Clemson sits 115th in Defensive Line Yards.
It's going to be really important for Virginia to establish the run early because Anthony Colandrea is a really good quarterback in play-action sets.
Clemson also isn't doing a great job stopping teams once they cross the 40-yard line. It ranks 108th in Defensive Finishing Drives with their opponents averaging 4.4 points per scoring opportunity.
The Tigers are most likely going to have their way offensively, but Virginia is coming off a great performance against Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough, holding him to his lowest yards-per-attempt mark and PFF passing grade of the season.
However, Clemson will likely run the ball with ease, as it ranks 12th nationally in EPA/Rush. On the other side, Virginia is below average in almost every defensive rushing metric.
With that said, Virginia is a much better team than some of the competition Clemson has faced lately.
Historically, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney has been very profitable against the spread, but he has actually gone just 8-9 against the spread as a big favorite since 2020.
All three projection models show value on the Cavaliers, so I like the value on them at +21.5.
Plus, nobody knows this Clemson program better than Tony Elliott, who served on Clemson's staff for a decade.
Pick: Virginia +21.5 (BetMGM)
Georgia vs. Texas Pick
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +143 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
Georgia vs. Texas Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Texas -8.0 | Texas -7.4 | Texas -5.1 |
You can make the argument that Texas hasn't played anybody, and that's fair given how limited the opposing offenses have been.
Still, the Longhorns have allowed an absurd 6.4 points per game through six games.
Not only that, but thanks to Arch Manning, they had the luxury of resting Quinn Ewers for two games to allow his abdominal injury to properly heal.
If there's one thing Jalen Milroe showed when Alabama played Georgia, it's that teams can throw on the Bulldogs' secondary. Kirby Smart's defense ranks 59th in EPA/Pass, which is not typical of a Georgia defense.
In fact, the Dawgs just allowed Mississippi State backup quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. to throw for over 300 yards while averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. That's a horrible sign facing a Texas team that ranks sixth nationally in EPA/Pass.
Additionally, Georgia isn't really dominating up front like it has in seasons past. It ranks 46th in Defensive Line Yards and 79th in Power Success Rate, which measures the percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converted a first down or scored a touchdown.
So, if the Bulldogs can't control the line of scrimmage or get Texas off the field when it's in third-and-short or fourth-and-short situations, how are they going to win this game?
Georgia quarterback Carson Beck lit Alabama up in the second half, but one thing is very clear: If opponents can get pressure on him and force him to throw from a crowded pocket, his efficiency drops quite a bit.
Alabama put plenty of pressure on Beck in the first half of that game, and Texas can bring even more pressure. The Longhorns rank 15th nationally in Havoc and have the fourth-best pass-rushing grade, per PFF.
In addition to bringing pressure, Texas is the nation's best team in terms of explosive plays allowed and Finishing Drives Allowed.
Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium is one of the best home-field advantages in college football, which is certainly worth at least three points.
So, this line is indicating that this game would likely be a pick'em at a neutral site, which I don't agree with.
All three projection models have Texas as at least a five-point favorite, so I like the value on the Longhorns at -3.5.
Pick: Texas -3.5 (Caesars)
Iowa vs. Michigan State Pick
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +195 |
Iowa vs. Michigan State Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Iowa -9.5 | Iowa -10.1 | Iowa -9.5 |
I really don't see how Michigan State is going to score more than 10 points in this game against Iowa's defense.
The Hawkeyes held a really underrated Washington offense to just 10 points in Iowa City this past weekend because they completely dominated the line of scrimmage and Washington had no answer.
Michigan State is far worse up front than the Huskies, ranking 125th in Offensive Line Yards while doing a terrible job protecting quarterback Aidan Chiles. The Oregon State transfer has been under pressure on almost 34% of his dropbacks, and the Spartans' offensive line has the fourth-worst pass-blocking grade, per PFF.
Iowa also blitzes at one of the lowest rates in the country, so if it can get to Chiles with only four defensive linemen, he'll be forced to throw into one of the best secondaries in the country.
Iowa owns the third-best PFF coverage grade in the nation and has picked off opposing quarterbacks seven times this season. Don't be surprised to see Chiles get picked off considering he has already thrown nine picks while racking up 15 turnover-worthy plays.
The question for Michigan State is whether or not it can stop Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson.
Johnson has been the second-best running back in the country thus far, averaging 7.9 yards per carry. He has also averaged 5.6 yards per carry after contact, showing how difficult he is to bring down when hit.
Michigan State ranks 99th in PFF tackle grading and explosive plays allowed, so I'm not sure it'll slow him down.
Iowa will also have a big advantage on special teams with the emergence of Rhys Dakin at punter. The Melbourne, Australia, native has downed 16 of his 30 punts inside the 20-yard line and also boomed a 61-yard punt against Washington last week.
The Hawkeyes defense has the ninth-best starting field position, which is a big benefit.
Iowa should dominate in the trenches, and I'm not sure Michigan State can keep up — especially if it can't stop Johnson on defense.
All three projection models make Iowa a favorite of nine points or more, so I like the value on the Hawkeyes at -6. Plus, Kirk Ferentz is pretty good in these spots as a short favorite.
Pick: Iowa -6 (bet365)
