It's everybody's favorite time of year: bowl season.
From Georgia Southern vs. Ohio to the College Football Playoff, December and early January are going to be filled with nonstop football to bet on.
With opt-outs, coaching changes, and players hitting the transfer portal, lines move a ton during bowl season.
Money pours in from the time lines open on Sunday when bowls are announced until they kick off. Like any other sport, it's paramount to get the best price possible when betting on college football.
For example, a -2.5 favorite could move to -7.5, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -2.5 when lines opened.
I'm here to help you navigate the market by providing a few lines I'm buying right now — or other lines that I'm waiting to buy later in the week.
The hope for this piece is to beat the market, get the best price possible, and in the long run, save you some money with closing line value. To do that, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
You hear all the time, "Process over results." The best way to know if the process is working is by closing line value (CLV), meaning how many points did you beat the closing line by? Well, I'm here to help you hopefully get the most CLV possible early on in the week so you're sitting in a great position by the time we reach Saturday.
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Ohio
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -102 |
| Ohio Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -118 |
Georgia Southern vs. Ohio Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Ohio -5 | Ohio -7.1 | Ohio -4.7 |
Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke is really the only reason the Bobcats offense was successful this season. Ohio can't run the ball to save its life, but Rourke has been an effective passer.
The Bobcats rank 21st in Passing Success Rate, and Rourke has a 49.7% positive EPA/Play Percentage, which sits 21st in the country.
As a team, though, Ohio is averaging only 3.6 yards per carry on the ground and ranks outside the top 70 in both Rushing Success Rate and Offensive Line Yards. So, the pressure is going to be on Rourke to move the ball.
The good news for Ohio is that Georgia Southern can't stop anything. The Eagles are 101st in Success Rate Allowed and 110th in EPA/Play Allowed. They're outside the top 80 in both Rushing Success Rate and Passing Success Rate Allowed, but most importantly, they come in at 124th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
So, even though Ohio hasn't been great offensively this season, this will be a good matchup for it.
Georgia Southern is a pass-happy attack, throwing the ball on 61.5% of its offensive plays, which is one of the highest rates in the country.
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However, quarterback Davis Brin hasn't been that effective of a passer. As you can see below, he had a couple of really good games to begin the season, but he hasn't been great since.
Image via PFF.
He's also someone who's incredibly turnover-prone. He threw 16 interceptions, fumbled the ball eight times and committed 29 turnover-worthy plays, which was the most in college football.
The bad news for Brinn is he will be going up against a top-20 secondary, as the Bobcats rank 14th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 16th in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Georgia Southern ranks in the top 25 in EPA/Rush when it does run the ball, but the Ohio front seven has been incredible, allowing only 3.4 yards per carry. That unit has been stuffing everything at the line of scrimmage while ranking 12th in Defensive Line Yards and 13th in Stuff Rate.
Most importantly, Ohio sits leads the country in Finishing Drives Allowed with its opponents averaging only 2.36 points on drives that end inside the Bobcats' 40-yard line.
All three projection models are showing value on the Bobcats, so I like the value on them at -1.5.
Pick: Ohio -1.5
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Frisco Bowl: UTSA vs. Marshall
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -330 |
| Marshall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
UTSA vs. Marshall Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| UTSA -11 | UTSA -12.1 | UTSA -14.9 |
Marshall started the season hot at 4-0, but the Thundering Herd proceeded to go 2-6 over their last eight games and needed to beat Arkansas State in their final game of the season just to reach bowl eligibility.
They were without starting quarterback Cam Fancher for two games against Georgia Southern and South Alabama, but he returned against Arkansas State with a big performance that saw him throw for 214 yards and three touchdowns and run for another 100 yards and two scores.
The problem is Fancher hasn't been that effective of a passer on the season, and because of that, the Herd have struggled to move the ball. Fancher is averaging only 7.0 yards per attempt and ranks 129th in EPA among the 160 quarterbacks in college football who have attempted at least 100 passes.
On the ground, Rasheen Ali has been a workhorse running the football this season.
However, he really hasn't been that effective, mainly because he doesn't have a great offensive line in front of him. Marshall sits outside the top 100 in both Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed, which is why it's 110th in Rushing Success Rate.
UTSA, meanwhile, has been very stout up front, ranking inside the top 45 in both Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate, so it should be able to control the trenches in this game.
Roadrunners quarterback Frank Harris is one of the best Group of Five quarterbacks in the nation, and he's going to give Marshall a lot of problems in this game.
Harris averaged 7.5 yards per attempt this season but ranked 32nd in EPA and had the 29th-best catchable ball percentage in college football. He also ran for 5.5 yards per carry, and 17 of his 52 attempts went for 10 yards or more.
That rushing explosiveness is going to be key in this game. Along with Harris, the Roadrunners have a fantastic running back duo in Kevorian Barnes and Robert Henry, who have combined for over five yards per carry.
These three runners have UTSA ranking fifth in rushing explosiveness, while Marshall is 129th in that category defensively.
With how ineffective the Marshall offense has been, it's really hard to get behind the Herd — especially when they're one of the worst teams in the country at Finishing Drives.
Since this game is being played in Frisco, Texas, there will probably be way more Roadrunner fans in the stands making this close to a home game for UTSA.
All three projection models have UTSA projected as double-digit favorites, so I like the value on the Roadrunners at -8.5.
Pick:UTSA -8.5
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