College football is almost back, which means the window is closing to place season-long futures.
If you’ve already staked out positions on the Heisman, national title race and win totals, I have one more market for you.
Here is a four-leg conference winner parlay that pays out better than 1,300-1. While you can bet these as individual wagers or add them to a parlay, remember that the parlay is an extreme long shot for a reason — please bet responsibly.
Oregon to Win Big Ten (+200)
Oregon earned a reputation over the past 15 years as a “finesse” team. The spread offense that put it on the map made stars out of skill position players like LaMichael James, De’Anthony Thomas and Kenjon Barner.
As the program continued its climb toward the top of the college football world, it began producing elite quarterbacks. Marcus Mariota won a Heisman in Eugene, Justin Herbert became a top-10 NFL Draft pick, and most recently, Bo Nix made it to New York as a Heisman finalist.
Despite all the offensive sizzle, the Ducks repeatedly fizzled out in big moments when facing teams with an advantage in the trenches. Auburn's Nick Fairley dominated them in the 2011 BCS National Championship (3 TFLs, FF), and four years later, the Ohio State offensive line and Ezekiel Elliott gouged them on the ground on the sport’s biggest stage (246 yards, four TDs).
Dan Lanning is well aware of what it takes to build a national champion, having been a part of Georgia’s national title team in 2021. Kirby Smart’s teams were built from the inside out, bullying teams at the point of attack.
After three recruiting cycles, Lanning’s Ducks are prepared to do the same.
The Ducks have the fifth-highest Blue-Chip Ratio in the country with 76% of their roster comprised of four- and five-star recruits. And critically, Lanning and his staff have won key recruiting battles for elite talent along both the offensive and defensive lines.
Oregon has signed 11 blue-chip recruits along the defensive line over the past two recruiting cycles. It returns three starters along the offensive line, which finished fifth in Line Yards in 2023.
Both tackles are elite.
Starting right tackle Ajani Cornelius, a hidden gem who transferred in from FCS Rhode Island, allowed pressure on just 2.1% of his pass-blocking snaps last fall, which was the lowest rate of any returning P4 tackle. He didn’t allow a sack or hit on any of his 115 true pass sets, according to PFF.
Left tackle Josh Conerly Jr., a former blue-chip recruit, was masterful as a true sophomore and has the potential to get even better if he can add to his 305-pound frame.
This offseason, Lanning filled one gap on the line with Indiana’s Matthew Bedford at guard. Bedford was a mauler in the run game and was viewed as one of the top guards in the transfer portal.
The reason why I’ve detailed the Ducks' talent and depth along the line is that the rest of this roster is national title caliber. They have a Heisman front-runner in Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, arguably the most dynamic receiving corp in the country, and two talented ballcarriers in the backfield.
Defensively, their secondary could be elite if transfers Jabbar Muhammad (Washington) and Kam Alexander (UTSA) play as well in the Green and Yellow as they did for their previous schools.
The only question on this entire roster is on the edge — but Lanning has answers there as well. He brought in a blue-chip edge rusher from the high school ranks in Elijah Rushing to rotate with All-Pac-12 honorable mention Jordan Burch.
Schedule-wise they draw Ohio State at home, avoid Penn State and get two layups in Purdue and Illinois before traveling to Ann Arbor to face Michigan in early November.
If they can keep Gabriel healthy this season, they should finally kick the door down in Lanning’s third season, winning his first conference title and making a serious run at a national title.
Texas State To Win Sun Belt (+400)
As we move through this parlay, we’ll be slowly increasing the spiciness of each leg.
Texas State, like Oregon, is the second favorite on the board in its respective league. But unlike Oregon, the Bobcats are hoping that their electric offense can paper over a defense that leaves a lot to be desired.
Let’s start with this offense.
The Bobs turned to G.J. Kinne in the hopes that he could pump life into a program that has been nothing more than a Sun Belt speed bump since joining the conference in 2013 (24-63 in SBC play).
The rising coaching star delivered immediately in San Marcos. Texas State upset Baylor in last season’s opener and finished the year with jaw-dropping offensive stats.
With new pieces all over the offense, the Bobcats lit up scoreboards to the tune of 36.7 points per game while finishing in the top 30 in both rushing and passing.
Defenses couldn’t get off the field on third downs when facing State (44% conversions, 30th) or stop it in the red zone (28th in TD%). No matter how you look at this offense, it was ruthlessly efficient.
This fall, the Bobs and offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich return all their meaningful skill position players.
Running back Ismail Mahdi led the nation in all-purpose yards with 166.8 per game. Deion Hankins arrives from UTEP to provide backfield depth, and he’s a load at nearly 230 pounds. Out wide, receiver Joey Hobert proved that he wasn’t some cute FCS story, dominating the SBC after moving up from Utah Tech. He caught 76 balls and eight touchdowns in 11 games.
Add in Kole Wilson, a Swiss Army Knife they use in the slot and return game, and it’s easy to see how they lured Sun Belt Player of the Year Jordan McCloud away from James Madison.
McCloud didn’t follow JMU head coach Curt Cignetti to Indiana, opting to pilot the Texas State offense instead. That’s great news for Bobs backers because he was unstoppable last fall, accounting for 43 total touchdowns and 3,711 total yards.
Toss in an experienced offensive line, and this is the best offense in the Sun Belt.
Can the defense improve? That’s the million-dollar question.
Last season, this unit was known for two things: Creating negative plays (third in TFLs) and surrendering explosives (90th in plays of 30-plus yards allowed).
It could be just as good at getting into the backfield thanks to the addition of FCS All-American Steven Parker on the edge. The former Incarnate Word standout was unblockable at times, forcing three fumbles while generating 14.5 tackles for loss in just 10 games.
Ben Bell, who mans the VIPER position, finished last season with 16 TFLs. This pairing could be scary good.
If Tunmise Adeleye, a blue-chip transfer from Michigan State, clears his legal hurdles, this defensive line could be top-three in the SBC.
Dexter McCoil Sr. is the new defensive coordinator, and he’s coaching up a secondary that needs to take the ball away. In the regular season, the Bobs collected just six interceptions across 12 games. That’s nowhere near good enough when you factor in an elite pass rush.
If he can get more out of some transfers in the secondary, this defense could be feisty. It’s worth noting that they picked off Rice five times in the bowl game, so perhaps that’s a sign of chaos — the good kind — to come.
Not only am I adding them into this parlay, but I’ve also taken up a position on them to make the CFP at 16-1 thanks to advantageous nonconference home games against UTSA and Arizona State.
And one last point on the schedule that’s working in their favor — there’s no JMU or App State in the regular season. #EatEmUp
Bowling Green To Win MAC (+700)
It pains me to say it, but Group of Five football is starting to take the shape of Minor League Baseball.
If you’re good enough to star in leagues like the MAC, you’re good enough to get paid by a P4 program if you opt to enter the transfer portal. Teams are getting ransacked each offseason.
But Bowling Green, somehow, someway avoided that fate, which is why I’m all over the Falcons in 2024.
Since Dino Babers took the Falcons to the MAC Promised Land in 2015, this program has exactly one winning season. But the good news is that their lone winning campaign came last fall.
Not only did they win seven games, but that included an upset of Georgia Tech, a near-upset of MAC heavyweight Toledo (32-31) and a 60-minute battle with Minnesota in the Quick Lane Bowl (30-24 loss). Toss in a 10-point defeat to Liberty, which earned the G5 bid to the Fiesta Bowl, and you start to feel like BGSU can compete with anyone at the G5 level.
The Falcons got progressively better last fall for two reasons. They have a legit “Big 3” on offense, and they have a great (by MAC standards) pass defense.
Connor Bazelak, who has bounced around the college football world via the portal, finally settled in and showed up in big moments last season. The seasoned quarterback has started 40 games in his career and posted QBRs of 82.1 against Georgia Tech and 75.5 against Toledo.
He played through injury last fall and had offseason surgery to address a cartilage defect in his leg. After missing spring practice, he’s 100% ready to roll.
His backfield mate, Terion Stewart, is also back to full health, which is really good news because he’s a game-breaker. Stewart finished with the highest PFF offensive grade of any running back in the country last season.
Harold Fannin Jr. rounds out their “Big 3” at tight end. He’ll be playing on Sundays before you know it. As a former wide receiver, he’s a polished route runner. Fannin’s 88.2 grade last season was the highest in the nation among tight ends. He also led the position with 2.82 yards per route run.
Once Fannin gets into conference play, he’s a YAC specialist as well. The 6-foot-4, 230-pound Fannin is a matchup nightmare — too big for a slot corner to take down and too fast for a linebacker to keep up with. In his final five games, he averaged 5.4 receptions and 85 yards per game with four touchdowns.
The BGSU pass defense could also be special this season. The Falcons’ pass defense ranked 12th (179.8 YPG), and a big reason for that was their aggressiveness. They defended 4.7 passes per game (38th) while picking off 17 to rank fourth.
Jordan Oladokun anchors an experienced secondary that adds in transfers Darius McClendon from FAU at slot cornerback and CJ Brown from NIU at safety.
Steve Morrison and Sammy Lawanson return to share defensive coordinator duties, so I believe this defense is in very good hands.
Aside from a road trip to Toledo, this schedule is very manageable within conference play. They draw cellar-dwellers Kent State and Akron, and they host Miami (OH) on Black Friday. There’s a chance they already have a MAC title game spot secured by the time they take the field against Miami in the regular-season finale.
Keep in mind that the MAC will not be using divisions for the first time since 1996. So, the top two teams will meet in Detroit.
We just need to pray for the health and safety of BGSU’s core stars as they navigate an early noncon that features roadies at Penn State and Texas A&M.
Virginia Tech To Win ACC (+1000)
We close out this conference winner parlay with a bold call. Virginia Tech hasn’t won the ACC in 14 years, but the Hokies have always been a program that’s been willing to wait for a winner.
Frank Beamer didn’t win double-digit games in Blacksburg until his fifth season and didn’t win an outright Big East title until his ninth year on campus.
This remains a blue-collar program that wants to control the football while playing great defense and special teams. They have every one of those elements this season.
Kyron Drones is an efficient dual-threat quarterback (17:3 TD-INT ratio). When they call his number, they gain an advantage at the line of scrimmage, and he made defenses pay with 642 rushing yards in 2023.
Former HBCU standout Bhayshul Tuten (10 total TDs) and Malachi Thomas return at running back, and they’ll all be running behind an experienced offensive line that returns all five starters.
Defensively, the Hokies bring back 77% of their overall production (13th) and are expected to field a top-30 defense.
Defensive tackle Aeneas Peebles and cornerback Dorian Strong were named first-team All-ACC by the media. Senior linebacker Sam Brumfield is a Butkus Award watchlist honoree, while fellow senior Antwaun Powell-Ryland can be found on the Bednarik watchlist.
There are potential stars at all three levels of the defense.
Special teams never take a backseat at Virginia Tech, and they won’t this season either. Tucker Holloway was named a second-team All-American as a return man, and both specialists made the Ray Guy and Lou Groza Award watchlists respectively.
They have the players, they have their preferred formula and they have Lane Stadium to provide a deafening home-field advantage. Can they get it done and shock the world? I think they can with this schedule.
They avoid Florida State, host Clemson on Nov. 9, and space out their bye weeks for optimal rest in Weeks 7 and 12. Making the ACC title game will likely come down to a Friday night game against Miami in Coral Gables.
The Canes are loaded from a roster perspective, but their home-field advantage is nonexistent at Hard Rock Stadium, and they’ve repeatedly laid eggs under Mario Cristobal in conference play. The Georgia Tech kneel debacle put The U in a tailspin last season, so we’ll see if they’re just a paper tiger again in 2024.
It could take two wins over Clemson to win the ACC, but at this moment, it feels like Virginia Tech is ascending while Clemson is treading water. The Tigers are just 12-7 dating back to the middle of the 2022 season and don’t have the kind of depth they once did during their national title years under Dabo Swinney.
Now is the time to buy on a new contender emerging in the ACC.
