Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Odds
| Georgia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -107 | 63 -110o / -110u | +190 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -114 | 63 -110o / -110u | -250 |
One thing that you can usually rely on in college football is every team in the ACC Coastal will have a chance to win the division.
This season is no different as Pitt leads the division and is undefeated in ACC play. However, Georgia Tech and Virginia remain in contention with just two conference losses.
That means Saturday's contest between Georgia Tech (3-3, 2-2 in ACC), and Virginia (5-2, 3-2) could be considered an elimination game for both teams.
The programs have split the last six meetings, with Virginia winning the last matchup 33-28 in 2019.
Each of Georgia Tech's last three opponents (UNC, Pitt and Duke) are ranked in the top 20 in total offense, just like Virginia is. Georgia Tech went 2-1 in those games and the over was 2-1 in those games as well.
The Yellow Jackets may be involved in another shootout in Charlotteville.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Georgia Tech Offense
Georgia Tech has one of the most talented runners in the country in sophomore Jahmyr Gibbs. However, both Gibbs and the team, have struggled to get much going on the ground this season.
Gibbs is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and the Yellow Jackets are 107th in Rushing Success Rate.
It hasn't helped matters that the offensive line has been banged up. Linemen Jordan Williams, Nick Pendley and Kenneth Kirby all either did not play or played hurt against Duke. The status of each is unclear for Saturday.
Where Georgia Tech will have the advantage is through the air.
Quarterback Jeff Sims has a big arm and is averaging 10 yards per attempt. The Yellow Jackets are 21st in Passing Play Explosiveness and Sims will be going against a shaky Virginia secondary that is 95th in Passing Play Explosiveness Allowed.
Georgia Tech Defense
Defensively, Georgia Tech is anchored by its linebackers Quez Jackson, Ayinde Eley and Charlie Thomas.
The trio each ranks in the top 10 in the ACC in tackles with Jackson leading the way. Georgia Tech does a good job of limiting big plays, however, it struggles in most areas defensively.
The Yellow Jackets are 70th in passing yards allowed, 92nd in Passing Success Rate defensively and 111th in Passing Play Explosiveness Allowed.
The Yellow Jackets are also 110th in Havoc and 91st in Finishing Drives.
Virginia will have advantages in most areas matching up with Georgia Tech's defense.
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Offense
Virginia has one of the most explosive offenses in the country this season.
The Cavaliers are fifth in the FBS in total offense (525.7 yards per game), 22nd in yards per play (6.7) and 22nd in scoring (36.1 PPG).
The Cavaliers do most of their damage through the air, passing 62% of the time.
Quarterback Brennan Armstrong has been sensational this season. He is completing 63.6% of his passes, has 19 touchdowns, six interceptions and is leading the FBS in passing yards with 2,824.
Armstrong does a good job of spreading the wealth as five Cavaliers already have 23 receptions.
Dontayvion Wicks is the big-play threat and leads the team with 676 receiving yards and six touchdowns.
Former quarterback Keytaon Thompson has developed into an all-purpose threat and has 128 rushing yards, along with 32 catches for 466 yards.
Tight end Jelani Woods is a matchup nightmare thanks to his 6-foot-7 frame. He has 23 catches for 315 yards and five touchdowns this season.
Virginia Defense
The Cavaliers are 94th in total defense and are susceptible to both the run and pass.
The Cavaliers are 72nd in pass coverage and 93rd in Passing Success Rate allowed. The Cavaliers are 119th in pass-rush grade and 98th in Havoc.
Georgia Tech's banged-up offensive line will get a reprieve this week, matching up against this Virginia front.
Virginia is 52nd in Rushing Success Rate but still allows 188 rushing yards per game.
Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia Tech and Virginia match up statistically:
Georgia Tech Offense vs. Virginia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 107 | 52 | |
| Line Yards | 88 | 90 |  |
| Pass Success | 78 | 93 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 64 | 119 | |
| Big Play | 84 | 77 | |
| Havoc | 63 | 98 | |
| Finishing Drives | 66 | 39 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Virginia Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 60 | 56 | |
| Line Yards | 54 | 58 | |
| Pass Success | 3 | 92 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 17 | 74 | |
| Big Play | 3 | 14 | |
| Havoc | 93 | 110 | |
| Finishing Drives | 32 | 91 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 58 | 15 |
| Coverage | 116 | 72 |
| Middle 8 | 23 | 27 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 97 | 94 |
| Plays per Minute | 45 | 27 |
| Rush Rate | 59.6% (37) | 37.9% (126) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Betting Pick
Georgia Tech and Virginia both rank in the top 50 in pace, which means this should be fast-paced with a lot of possessions for both sides.
The ball will also be in the air a ton given the secondaries in this game. Armstrong is going to light up a Georgia Tech defense that is 116th in pass coverage grade. He will also not be under much pressure seeing as the Yellow Jackets are 110th in Havoc and 74th in pass rush.
Sims should also have similar success exploiting the Virginia secondary.
Additionally, both teams are in the top 30 in the Middle 8, the last four minutes of the first half and first four minutes of the second half. Those scores just before the end of the first half can do a lot to tip the total in your favor.
When combining all of these factors, I'm expecting a high-scoring game. The over has hit three out of the last five matchups in this series and in each of the last three matchups in this series.
I am taking over 64.5, and I would play it up to 66.
