Indiana vs. Maryland Odds
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | -180 |
There are a lot of good games on the noon slate this Saturday. This isn't one of them.
But I believe there's a betting edge as Indiana travels to Maryland for a Big Ten East battle of the basement. Therefore, we will embrace what is likely to be an awful display of football all around.
Maryland is 4-3 overall, 3-1 at home and finds itself on a three-game losing streak, while IU is 2-5 overall, 1-2 on the road and on a three-game skid as well.
Maryland has been a tough team to bet all year, sitting 3-4 against the spread, while three of those losses have come in its last three games. But at least the Hoosiers have been somewhat easier to fade, having not covered a spread outside of Week 2 against Idaho.
Is it just that easy? Is Maryland the best of the worst in this matchup? Can we just lay the points here with the better quarterback and enjoy a real game at noon like Cincinnati vs. Tulane?
Not a chance, pal. It's the Big Ten, where the penalties are made up, and rankings don't matter.
Indiana Hoosiers
We can't be sure who we'll see at quarterback for Indiana after last week when Indiana used three different quarterbacks against Ohio State. Those three signal-callers combined for only 80 yards and one touchdown on 8-of-17 passing through the air.
But it'll likely be true freshman Donaven McCulley, who stepped in for an injured second-string Jack Tuttle last game against Ohio State. McCulley went 1-for-6 through the air when he faced the Buckeyes. However, the good news for McCulley is this defense will be much different from what he saw last week.
Averaging just 102 yards per contest on the ground and 202.7 through the air, Indiana has been one of the weakest offenses in the Big Ten. There may be some improvement against an injury-ridden Terrapin defense, but don't expect the Hoosiers to put up Ole Miss numbers anytime soon.
Defensively, Indiana allows 30.7 points and 362.6 yards per game. It's been effective defending the ground game, though, ranking 49th in opponent rush yards per game at 144.2.
Maryland Terrapins
Even though they had a bye week to prepare, the Terrapins looked lost against PJ Fleck's rush-heavy offense last week. Maryland allowed 326 rush yards by the Gophers, the most it's given up so far this year.
And it was an even worse performance on offense for the Terps, as they recorded only 268 total yards in the game.
Maryland will look to get back on track this week against Indiana at home, where they've won four of their last six games.
Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa is completing 71.1% of his passes for 1,965 yards, 15 touchdowns, and eight interceptions this season. The Indiana defense hasn't been strong this year, specifically against the pass, an area where Tagovailoa may be able to take advantage this week. But he has to be efficient and avoid interceptions.
On the ground, Maryland is averaging 128 yards per contest with Tayon Fleet-Davis as the primary back. He has recorded five touchdowns and 359 yards on the ground this season.
Defensively, Maryland allows 29.7 points per game on 391.6 yards. The Terps defense has been atrocious in their past three games, but we can't ignore that they played three of the best teams in the Big Ten.
This week against the Hoosiers is a perfect opportunity for the Terps defense to start the second half of the season on the right foot. The Hoosiers rank dead last in the Big Ten in both yards per game with just over 300 and average yards gained per offensive play with just 4.3.
Indiana vs. Maryland Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Indiana and Maryland match up statistically:
Indiana Offense vs. Maryland Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 112 | 73 | |
| Line Yards | 122 | 84 | |
| Pass Success | 121 | 57 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 72 | 98 | |
| Big Play | 113 | 120 | |
| Havoc | 87 | 68 | |
| Finishing Drives | 95 | 51 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Maryland Offense vs. Indiana Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 83 | 79 |  |
| Line Yards | 60 | 45 | |
| Pass Success | 34 | 90 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 13 | 109 | |
| Big Play | 45 | 64 | |
| Havoc | 104 | 80 | |
| Finishing Drives | 63 | 113 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 34 | 85 |
| Coverage | 60 | 109 |
| Middle 8 | 112 | 88 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 87 | 66 |
| Plays per Minute | 70 | 55 |
| Rush Rate | 50.5% (93) | 46.8% (114) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Indiana vs. Maryland Betting Pick
Indiana is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall and 0-5 ATS as an underdog in its last five games. Meanwhile, the Terrapins are 5-2 ATS against a team with a losing record.
While injuries have plagued the Terrapins on both sides of the ball and they've struggled this season, it's nothing compared to the fall from grace this Indiana team has seen.
Maryland is the better team here. It's done well at home and against teams it should beat. That's why I'm backing the Terrapins in their homecoming game at -5.5. I'd bet it up to -6.5.
