Iowa State vs. West Virginia Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | -310 |
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | +245 |
Iowa State started this season 2-2 but has racked up three straight wins since. Last week, the Cyclones secured a huge victory over previously undefeated Oklahoma State to pull into a tie for second place in the Big 12 with the Cowboys and Baylor.
This week, the Cyclones travel to Morgantown to battle the 3-4 West Virginia Mountaineers.
West Virginia started off 2-1, but it lost its first three Big 12 games to Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Baylor. The Mountaineers got back in the win column with a 29-17 win over TCU last week.
West Virginia has had success against Iowa State in the past, leading the all-time series 5-4 since it joined the Big 12. However, the Cyclones have won the last three meetings by an average of 25 points.
We may see another convincing Iowa State victory this year.
Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State Offense
Brock Purdy has a 3-0 record with seven touchdowns and two interceptions in three career starts against West Virginia.
He will come into this start with momentum after lighting up a strong Oklahoma State defense last week. Purdy was 27-of-33 for 307 yards and two touchdowns.
For the season, Purdy is completing 75% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions.
Purdy will be flanked in the backfield by his running mate Breece Hall, who is the Cyclones' workhorse. Hall has received 82% of the carries for Iowa State this season and is 182 yards shy of 1,000 for the season.
Hall could get 1,000 yards this week, but it will be difficult against a West Virginia defense that is 19th in rushing yards allowed per game.
With West Virginia being 96th in passing yards allowed, the Cyclones could look to attack more through the air this week.
Iowa State Defense
West Virginia is not the only strong run defense in this game. The Cyclones are 15th in the FBS in rushing yards allowed per game and eighth in Rushing Play Explosiveness Allowed.
In general, the Cyclones do a good job of limiting explosive plays and are 24th in big play percentage allowed. As a result, the Cyclones are 12th in the FBS in scoring defense.
The Cyclones rank 76th in Havoc, which favors West Virginia in this game. However, Iowa State will be able to put pressure on West Virginia quarterback Jarrett Brown, as well as limit the effectiveness of West Virginia's rushing attack.
West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia Offense
West Virginia has an almost even run-pass distribution, however, it has more success through the air.
The Mountaineers average 264.7 passing yards per game, which ranks 37th in the country. Brown is completing 66% of his passes, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt and has eight touchdowns against five interceptions.
Winston Wright Jr. is his leading receiver with 36 receptions for 423 yards.
West Virginia ranks 64th in Rushing Success Rate and 75th in Line Yards. Running back Leddie Brown leads the team with 533 yards and nine rushing touchdowns.
Backup freshman quarterback Garrett Greene adds an additional element to the running game. He has 299 rushing yards on 7.5 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns.
He will be key on Saturday as it will be difficult for the Mountaineers to generate much in the traditional running game against Iowa State.
West Virginia Defense
For the most part, West Virginia has been a solid unit defensively. The Mountaineers rank 20th in Finishing Drives, 38th in Havoc, 41st in scoring defense and are tied for 40th in sacks per game.
Defensive lineman Dante Stills and Taijh Alston pace the Mountaineers with five and four sacks, respectively.
Getting pressure on Purdy will be key to make up for the back end of West Virginia's defense. The Mountaineers are 81st in Passing Success Rate and 98th in pass coverage grade, according to PFF.
Iowa State vs. West Virginia Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa State and West Virginia match up statistically:
Iowa State Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 79 | 45 | |
| Line Yards | 70 | 40 | |
| Pass Success | 27 | 81 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 59 | 99 | |
| Big Play | 23 | 71 | |
| Havoc | 21 | 38 | |
| Finishing Drives | 36 | 20 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
West Virginia Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 64 | 49 | |
| Line Yards | 75 | 44 | |
| Pass Success | 58 | 71 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 53 | 44 | |
| Big Play | 76 | 24 | |
| Havoc | 36 | 77 | |
| Finishing Drives | 42 | 40 |  |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 33 | 9 |
| Coverage | 60 | 98 |
| Middle 8 | 23 | 13 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 81 | 83 |
| Plays per Minute | 115 | 97 |
| Rush Rate | 52.4% (82) | 51.% (88) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Iowa State vs. West Virginia Betting Pick
In addition to winning the last three meetings in the series, Iowa State has covered all three as well. This year, the Cyclones are 2-1 ATS on the road.
West Virginia's offense comes and goes and it will struggle to consistently sustain drives against Iowa State's defense.
For Iowa State, Purdy should have a big day on this West Virginia secondary. The Cyclones should have success converting big plays, whether it is Hutchinson, up the seams to Charlie Kolar and Chase Allen or on dump-off passes to Hall.
It will be the last opportunity for bettors to back Purdy in "Brocktober," so you have to go with the Cyclones here.
I like Iowa State to cover this one, especially under a touchdown. I would not be surprised if the Cyclones win by double digits.
