Kansas State vs. Iowa State Odds
| Kansas State Odds | +13 [BET NOW] |
| Iowa State Odds | -13 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | +420 / -590 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 47 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Kansas State enters this game on a two-game slide after starting the season 4-1. With a week off, it'll look to bounce back against a team that appears to be a rich man's version of the Wildcats.
Iowa State is 5-2 and ranked inside the top 20 of the AP Poll. Following their shocking loss to Louisiana in the season opener, the Cyclones have averaged 36 points per game and have won by an average of 10 points.
This is a matchup between two teams that lean on the running game and their defenses. Points could be at a premium, and that’s why this total has fallen from 50.5 when it opened.
Kansas State Wildcats
In their first season under Chris Klieman, the Wildcats ranked 127th in seconds per play, and through seven games this year, they rank 114th. On average, they run the 11th-fewest offensive plays per game, and they hold an Offensive Success Rate of only 36%.
The Wildcats managed to replace Skylar Thompson following his season-ending injury, but there’s been a drop off from Thompson to Will Howard. Thompson averaged 9.8 yards per attempt with a 62.5% completion percentage while Howard checks in at 7.8 and 54.4%. And one of the most notable issues with Howard is his 5:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Since Howard took over as the starter in Week 6, Kansas State has a Passing Success Rate of 34.4%.
Kansas State runs the ball on 57.3% of their 61 plays per game. The Wildcats own a Rushing Success Rate of 33.8% and have been stuffed on 26.7% of attempts. Between Deuce Vaughn and Harry Trotter, the leading rushers are averaging just 3.95 yards per attempt. And they’re not getting help from their offensive line, which is averaging just 2.29 Line Yards per attempt.
The strength for Kansas State is its defense. The Cats have a Success Rate of 40.5% on that side of the ball and are fairly strong against the run, which will come in handy against the Cyclones. They allow a Rushing Success Rate of 38.5%, stuff 20.5% of attempts, and allow just 2.82 Line Yards per attempt.
Teams haven’t been able to consistently finish drives against this defense, as it's allowing just 3.22 points per opportunity.
Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State is the 35th-slowest offense in the nation by plays per game and has the 22nd-slowest pace. The Cyclones boast an Offensive Success Rate of 47.3% and lean slightly in favor of the run with a rush percentage of 52.9%.
Brock Purdy has been mediocre this season despite completing 62.2% of his passes. He’s averaging 6.8 yards per attempt and has thrown six interceptions. The Cyclones have a Passing Success Rate of 46% and are averaging just 2.7 passes over 20 yards per game.
Breece Hall has been a breakout superstar this year with seven straight games with more than 100 yards rushing. He’s averaging 6.3 yards per attempt and already has 13 scores. His line is giving him some help, averaging 3.16 Line Yards per attempt and a stuff rate of 18.5%, but Hall’s talent has been a big reason for the team’s 48.5% Rushing Success Rate.
Defensively, Iowa State is strong. The Cyclones have the 29th-lowest Success Rate allowed with 37.8%. They stuff 25.6% of rush attempts and allow 2.52 Line Yards per attempt. They’ve been relatively good at stopping teams from finishing drives, allowing just 2.9 points per opportunity.
If there are any notable areas of weakness, it’s that the Cyclones struggle slightly in getting teams off of the field. They allow a 78% Power Success Rate and create Havoc on only 17.8% of plays.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Over its last two games, Iowa State has scored an average of 45 points per game, but that wasn’t against a defense that would slow it down and an offense that would milk the clock.
If I had to play a side, I would probably lean Kansas State due to the large spread on a low total, but with both of these teams playing at a snail’s pace while keeping the clock moving, the value remains on the under despite the movement.
I’m taking the under 46.5 and would play as low as 42.5.
Pick: Under 46.5 (down to 42.5)
