LSU vs. Ole Miss Odds
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 | 76.5 -112o / -108u | +270 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| -7.5 | 76.5 -112o / -108u | -355 |
My very first article here at The Action Network was about how I believed Spencer Rattler was going to win the Heisman Trophy.
My fellow colleague, Keg, and I went days, weeks, and months debating Rattler and Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral over text and DMs that would get so hostile we would make the presidential debates look like a walk in the park.
I'm here to officially say I was dead wrong. Credit to me for admitting that.
While Corral has some work to do to get back in leading contention, Keg's pick looks a lot better than mine. Corral has run the fast-paced, high-flying Ole Miss to a 4-1 start, losing only to Alabama.
While hopes are high for the Rebels, the exact opposite is going on for LSU.
Sporting a disappointing 4-3 record after dropping games to UCLA, Auburn, and Kentucky, news came out this week that head coach Ed Orgeron will be resigning at the end of the season.
Despite all of the news that would typically add up to a locker room nightmare, LSU will have to find a way to lock in and stop this buzzsaw of an offense from Ole Miss.
Can LSU shake off the distraction and pick up the upset win? Let's find out.
LSU Tigers
LSU Offense
While Corral gets most of the praise for being one of the best quarterbacks in college football today, LSU's Max Johnson is having a solid season of his own.
Throwing for 1,863 yards, 20 touchdowns, and four interceptions, Johnson has led the Tigers offense to a Pass Success ranking of 15th. He has weapons on the outside and phenomenal protection, with an offensive line ranked 15th in pass blocking.
He will get a chance to show he is just as good as Corral, as Ole Miss has a very weak defense. Expect points to be scored when LSU gets past the 40, as the Tigers rank top-10 in Finishing Drives.
While I assume Johnson will have a great day in the pocket, the run game piques my interest.
LSU is very poor at running the ball, with ranks of 103rd in Rush Success and 101st in Line Yards. It has an opportunity to improve on these numbers, as the Ole Miss rush defense is just as bad, if not worse.
LSU Defense
It's never easy replacing starters, especially potential NFL talent, due to injury. That's exactly what the LSU secondary has been going through this season. The loss of talent shows, as this LSU secondary has been pretty bad so far.
Ranking 84th in Def. Pass Success and 101st in Def. Big Play, the Tigers secondary will have its hands full trying to stop Corral's bombs.
The Ole Miss offense ranks 25th or better in almost every offensive metric — not ideal for the LSU defense.
The Tigers do have one glimmer of hope, though, if they want to avoid the blowout. LSU is very good at getting to the quarterback, owning a Def. Pass Rush ranking of 21st. If it can cut the head off the snake that leads this offense by getting to Corral often, it may find itself within a puncher's chance of stealing the win.
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss Offense
Lane Kiffin is an offensive scheming genius and an electric coach. You can never get enough of him, and his pairing with Corral has been a match made in heaven.
The Ole Miss offense is one of the best overall offenses in the nation. Corral has led the unit to plenty of top-25 rankings in the passing game. The one-time Heisman frontrunner has thrown for 1,728 yards, 14 touchdowns and one interception.
Even more shocking, the passing isn't even the most efficient part of this offense. The Rebels top the nation in Rush Success and sit near the top five in Line Yards.
Corral leads the team in rushing, running for 450 yards and eight touchdowns. Running backs Henry Parrish and Snoop Conner have also found success on the ground, averaging over five yards per carry.
Ole Miss Defense
Insert the Spiderman GIF of each hero pointing at the other. Like LSU, the Ole Miss defense leaves plenty to be desired.
While Ole Miss finds itself in the top 25 in every offensive metric, the defense is on the wrong side of 100 in some defensive metrics. It ranks 120th in Def. Rush Success, 109th in Def. Line Yards, and 104th in Def. Finishing Drives.
Luckily for the Rebels, LSU is horrific in the run game. Unlucky for them, LSU is top-10 in Finishing Drives. Ole Miss will need to do whatever it can to keep LSU from getting past the 40.
This can be done by either scoring, which I'm sure it will have no problems doing, and avoiding any mistakes that could flip field position.
LSU vs. Ole Miss Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how LSU and Ole Miss match up statistically:
LSU Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 103 | 120 | |
| Line Yards | 101 | 109 | |
| Pass Success | 15 | 85 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 23 | 56 | |
| Big Play | 25 | 77 | |
| Havoc | 37 | 95 | |
| Finishing Drives | 7 | 104 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Ole Miss Offense vs. LSU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 1 | 89 | |
| Line Yards | 6 | 67 | |
| Pass Success | 19 | 84 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 25 | 21 |  |
| Big Play | 8 | 101 | |
| Havoc | 24 | 52 | |
| Finishing Drives | 8 | 106 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 62 | 96 |
| Coverage | 58 | 60 |
| Middle 8 | 55 | 97 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 15 | 50 |
| Plays per Minute | 45 | 1 |
| Rush Rate | 45.8% (116) | 60.% (31) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
LSU vs. Ole Miss Betting Pick
Plug your nose and pray for the best because the Tigers are the play here.
Yes, I know about Coach O. Yes, I know about the injuries. Yes, I know they will struggle to stop Ole Miss. With all that said, I will still ride with LSU.
Johnson is quietly having an amazing season, something he will continue to build on by shredding the Ole Miss secondary. He will once again have a clean pocket to buy him time to make the right read.
I believe he has what it takes to at least stay within the number.
Better yet, the Ole Miss defense presents an opportunity for LSU to possibly establish the run — something that has eluded it all season. The Tigers could possibly record some big plays as well, as Ole Miss is one of the worst tackling units in football, ranking 96th in PFF Tackling.
I will also be monitoring for a live total. If either team starts off slow, I will be grabbing a piece of the over.
I grabbed LSU +10.5 at the open and would play this no less than +10.
