Michigan State vs. Maryland Odds
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12 | 61 -110o / -110u | +380 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| -12 | 61 -110o / -110u | -530 |
Two weeks ago, Michigan State was on top of the college football world and in control of the Big Ten with one win over Ohio State away from securing a Big Ten Championship berth.
Then it lost to Purdue.
The Spartans still find themselves in control, but their path is a lot harder these days.
Maryland, meanwhile, is experiencing success in a different way. While they have no hope for a Big Ten Championship berth, the Terrapins can still take pride in the success they're having so far.
With Maryland potentially playing spoiler in the midst of its spark of a season, this matchup shapes up to be an interesting one. This is one that Michigan State desperately needs to win.
Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State Offense
Michigan State's passing game surprised me in its last outing. Once basically non-existent, the Spartans now rank 37th in Pass Success.
Quarterback Payton Thorne had himself a modest game in the loss against Purdue, throwing for 276 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. So far this season, he as quietly thrown for 2,173 yards, 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions at a completion rate of 62.1%.
While the passing game has been on an upswing, the run game will look to continue to dominate the game plan. Maryland has poor rush defense ranks and Heisman contender Walker will undoubtedly look to exploit it.
Michigan State Defense
The game plan for the Michigan State defense will be pretty straightforward: Stop the pass. Easier said than done, as MSU has one of the worst pass defenses in the nation.
Clocking in at 112th in Def Pass Success, MSU will need to rely on its defensive line to get to the quarterback and avoid getting burned in the air. Luckily, the Spartans have a top-10 Def Pass Rush. This line needs to show up this weekend.
If they can disrupt Tagovailoa and get into the backfield, MSU will be in prime position. The battle in the trenches will be interesting as Maryland has a respectable offensive line.
Maryland Terrapins
Maryland Offense
Maryland is in the midst of turning its program around and there is a direct correlation with its success and that of quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa. The junior led the Terps to a 4-0 start by avoiding turnovers until a dud against Iowa.
Behind Tagovailoa, Maryland is a very pass-heavy unit. The Terps run the ball just 45.7% of the time, 120th in the nation. Tagovailoa slings it game in and game out, including attempting 57 passes last time out against Penn State.
Maryland will look to torch the MSU secondary, as it ranks 112th in Def Pass Success. Tagovailoa will find himself in prime position to control the game and put up video game numbers. His 2,755 passing yards and 18 touchdowns have led Maryland to a Pass Success rank of 22nd in the nation.
If the offensive line can hold off MSU's top-10 pass rush, the Terps will be within a punchers chance of stealing this game.
Maryland Defense
While the Maryland offense has improved over the season, the defense still leaves a lot to be desired.
They may find themselves in trouble as they are 80th in both defensive run metrics, Rush Success and Line Yards. Michigan State has arguably the best running back in football, Kenneth Walker III, and he will look to run wild on this defense.
Maryland does have one metric going in its favor and that is Finishing Drives. While Maryland is middle in the nation at letting opponents score past the 40, MSU is even worse at scoring past the 40.
This will be the key metric to watch as halting drives will do wonders for Maryland to stay in this game and avoid the blow out.
Michigan State vs. Maryland Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Maryland and Michigan State match up statistically:
Maryland Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 105 | 49 | |
| Line Yards | 95 | 40 | |
| Pass Success | 22 | 112 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 27 | 9 | |
| Big Play | 71 | 13 | |
| Havoc | 97 | 76 | |
| Finishing Drives | 96 | 27 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Michigan State Offense vs. Maryland Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 28 | 80 | |
| Line Yards | 37 | 80 | |
| Pass Success | 37 | 44 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 39 | 92 | |
| Big Play | 42 | 49 | |
| Havoc | 39 | 80 | |
| Finishing Drives | 83 | 61 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 59 | 66 |
| Coverage | 101 | 29 |
| Middle 8 | 94 | 22 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 87 | 107 |
| Plays per Minute | 30 | 34 |
| Rush Rate | 45.7% (120) | 56.8% (53) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Michigan State vs. Maryland Betting Pick
Not all hope is lost for Michigan State. It can win this one, beat Ohio State and secure a berth to the Big Ten Championship.
Except that I'm not so sure they win this game as comfortably as the spread implies.
Maryland is getting better with hopes of being a contender in the Big Ten soon. While not there yet, the passing game is still a force to be reckoned with.
This is a passing attack that will look to shred MSU's secondary, as the unit is one of the worst in the nation. If the Maryland offensive line can hold off MSU's pass rush, they will keep this a tight game until the very end
While MSU has been better on the passing front, I still suspect them to be run-heavy as Maryland has a poor rush defense.
I played Maryland +13 on the open and that number is still widely available. I would take this at no less than +10.5.
