Maryland vs. Rutgers Odds
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| -1.5 | 53 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 | 53 -110o / -110u | -105 |
What if I told you Ohio State at Michigan is not the most important Big Ten battle with bowl implications? Well, I'd be lying. But Maryland at Rutgers still has something on the line.
With both teams sitting at five wins apiece, the winner of this one will be going bowling. The crowning achievement for any middling team.
Maryland jumped out the gate scorching hot behind quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa but has come to a screeching halt behind a brutal end-of-season schedule.
Rutgers has played exactly how you thought they would when looking at their schedule. Beating the teams they should and losing to the Big Ten powerhouses.
With a near pick'em spread and future bowl game on the line, this one shapes up to be a close matchup.
Maryland Terrapins
Terps Offense Goes As Passing Game Goes
Maryland's offense remains the same game in and game out as their biggest strength is their pass game behind the arm of Tagovailoa.
While the results have shown Maryland has been falling back to earth, Tagovailoa's production remains the same. Going against the tough Michigan defense last time out, Taugovailoa managed to throw for 178 yards and one touchdown.
He currently sits at 3,283 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions on the season.
He will look to bounce back against a Rutgers team that actually possesses a very good pass defense. While the pass rush is weak at 89th in the nation, its Def. Pass Success is above average at 27th.
Tagovailoa will have more time than ever in the pocket to make the right read with a great offensive line against the weak Rutgers' rush. If Tagovailoa can hit his targets in the open field, expect large gains, as Rutgers is 91st in PFF.
Moving the chains will be more important than ever if this team wants to go bowling. With a weak defense, Maryland will need to make every possession count.
Maryland's Defense Has Struggled All Season
While we can expect the Maryland offense to get theirs, the result of the game may very well come down to the Terps' defense.
This is a unit that has been struggling all season. It ranks below-average at 70th or worse in nearly every defensive metric, giving up 30 points or more in the last seven games.
Rutgers brings a balanced offensive attack but doesn't really excel at anything. This tips the balance toward Maryland, but still hard to trust this unit.
Finishing Drives will be the key metric to watch when Maryland is on defense as the Terps rank near dead-even against Rutgers' offense Finishing Drives.
If Maryland can take advantage of stalled-out drives and early downs, it will be sitting pretty to go bowling.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Rutgers Needs To Run For Success
Rutgers' season has played out pretty much exactly as was expected this season, but if there was ever a time for the offense to step it up, it would be now.
It had a rough time in its last outing, getting skunked by Penn State. The offense was nowhere to be found, as quarterback Noah Vedral threw for 91 yards and no rusher ran for more than 20 yards total.
While playing against the vaunted Penn State defense is no easy task, these are still eye-popping numbers.
The only advantage — albeit a small one — for Rutgers would be when running the ball. While the Knights rank only 74th in Rush Success, they will have a chance to move the ball on Maryland, which ranks 94th in stopping the run.
Defense Has Been A Strength For Scarlet Knights
The backbone of Rutgers' success this season, has been limiting opposing offenses.
The Scarlet Knights have held opponents to three scores or fewer in seven games, and the key has been limiting points when the field of play is shortened. Rutgers ranks 14th in Def. Finishing Drives, so teams have found it tough to score once they have gotten past the 40.
RU is a very well-balanced defense, ranking top 30 in both Def. Rush Success and Pass Success.
The Knights once were one of the best Havoc-minded defenses in football, but that metric has drastically dipped. If it could find that success again and give the Maryland offense fits, Rutgers will comfortably find itself in possession to win this game.
Maryland vs. Rutgers Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Maryland and Rutgers match up statistically:
Maryland Offense vs. Rutgers Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 101 | 29 | |
| Line Yards | 102 | 47 | |
| Pass Success | 41 | 27 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 26 | 89 | |
| Big Play | 87 | 53 | |
| Havoc | 79 | 57 | |
| Finishing Drives | 100 | 14 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Rutgers Offense vs. Maryland Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 74 | 94 | |
| Line Yards | 68 | 73 | |
| Pass Success | 121 | 69 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 30 | 115 | |
| Big Play | 129 | 78 | |
| Havoc | 88 | 99 | |
| Finishing Drives | 87 | 83 |  |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 57 | 91 |
| Coverage | 108 | 110 |
| Middle 8 | 96 | 112 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 102 | 73 |
| Plays per Minute | 20 | 68 |
| Rush Rate | 45.8% (121) | 56.9% (50) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Maryland vs. Rutgers Betting Pick
As the spread implies, these teams are as close to even as it gets.
Maryland has a great pass offense, while Rutgers has the capability to shut it down. Rutgers has a very poor offense, while Maryland is an all-around bad defense.
With that said, I have to lean toward the Terps to stamp their ticket to a bowl game.
The one metric that I just can't shake is that Rutgers is a horrible tackling team. If Tagovailoa can make the right read with extra time in the pocket, Rutgers may find itself in trouble trying to tackle Maryland in the open field.
If you followed me in the preseason by taking the Maryland season win total over 5.5, then this is a beautiful hedge spot if you do not trust them to finish it out.
I played Maryland -1 and would play it to -2.5. I will also monitor how it does against the Rutgers pass defense. If it struggles early, then I may hedge my season win total out with Rutgers live bet.
