Miami vs. Duke Odds
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21 -110 | 68 -110o / -110u | -1375 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21 -110 | 68 -110o / -110u | +800 |
After a 2-4 start that had many questioning the job status of Manny Diaz, Miami has won four of its last five games. The Hurricanes became bowl eligible with a 38-26 win at home over Virginia Tech last week and will now look to close out the regular season at 7-5 with a win over Duke.
Duke began the season at 3-1, but it has been uncompetitive in ACC play. Last week's 62-22 loss to Louisville dropped Duke to 3-8. The Blue Devils are 0-7 in ACC play outright and 1-6 against the spread.
The Blue Devils are heavy underdogs once again this week as 21-point underdogs. However, Miami is just 2-5 as a favorite this season. One thing that is likely to happen is the Hurricanes will put a ton of points on the scoreboard.
Miami Hurricanes
Since taking over for D'Eriq King, redshirt freshman quarterback Tyler Van Dyke has brought a vertical element to the Hurricanes' offense. Van Dyke ranks fifth in the ACC with 17 big-time throws of at least 20-plus yards, per Pro Football Focus.
The Canes are 28th nationally in passing play explosiveness, while Van Dyke is ninth nationally in passing yards per attempt at 9.3. Van Dyke has thrown for 300 yards and three touchdown passes in five straight games. For the season, he is completing 61% of his passes and has thrown 22 touchdowns against six interceptions.
The Canes have five receivers with at least 20 receptions and 300 yards this season, led by Charleston Rambo. The Oklahoma transfer has 71 receptions for 1,070 and five touchdowns. He needs two receptions and 91 yards to break the Hurricanes' single-season records for receptions and receiving yards.
Mike Harley needs five receptions to become the Hurricanes' career leader in receptions. He has 44 receptions for 447 yards and five touchdowns.
Despite defense being Diaz's area of expertise, the Canes have struggled on that side of the ball. Miami is 92nd in scoring defense at 30.1 PPG and 83rd in total defense.
Miami has been one of the nation's most disruptive teams over the last few years but ranks just 79th in Havoc this season. The Canes are also 119th in Finishing Drives.
Zach McCloud leads the team with 5.5 sacks on the year.
However, the Canes will be without standout true freshman safety James Williams after he underwent knee surgery. He had 29 tackles and an interception on the year.
Duke Blue Devils
If there was a positive in a 40-point loss, Duke did crack the 20-point mark for just the second time in ACC play.
Duke has fallen to 100th in scoring offense at 24 PPG despite averaging 436 yards of total offense. It ranks 94th in Passing Success Rate, 118th in passing play explosiveness, and 119th in Finishing Drives.
Running back Mataeo Durant has done his best to carry the offense all season. The senior leads the ACC in rushing attempts (233), is second in rushing yards (1,173) and tied for third in touchdowns.
Defense has been a struggle for the Blue Devils all season, and last week may have taken the cake as the worst week. The Blue Devils surrendered 62 points to Louisville and quarterback Malik Cunningham accounted for 527 total yards and seven touchdowns by himself.
Duke gives up 39.1 PPG, which is second-to-last to Kansas among Power Five teams and 125th nationally.
Duke is 80th in Havoc Allowed and 123rd in Finishing Drives.
It's also dead last in the FBS in passing play explosiveness allowed. That will be an issue against a big-play offense like Miami.
Miami vs. Duke Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami and Duke match up statistically:
Miami Offense vs. Duke Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 123 | 115 | |
| Line Yards | 129 | 104 | |
| Pass Success | 17 | 103 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 11 | 101 | |
| Big Play | 48 | 122 | |
| Havoc | 95 | 78 | |
| Finishing Drives | 55 | 123 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Duke Offense vs. Miami Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 61 | 80 | |
| Line Yards | 39 | 56 | |
| Pass Success | 64 | 41 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 83 | 98 | |
| Big Play | 65 | 74 | |
| Havoc | 77 | 77 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 119 | 117 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 128 | 118 |
| Coverage | 91 | 119 |
| Middle 8 | 52 | 120 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 40 | 89 |
| Plays per Minute | 6 | 6 |
| Rush Rate | 47.9% (110) | 56.6% (53) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Miami vs. Duke Betting Pick
This is a matchup where something will have to give.
Miami has struggled as a double-digit favorite over the last few seasons. Meanwhile, Duke is 1-6 ATS in ACC play. In its six losses against the spread, it has lost by 35.5 points.
While Miami will likely win this game handily, I think the best way to attack this game is to target the Canes' team total.
Miami scored 48 points against Duke last year and comes into this matchup on a roll offensively. Miami is averaging 34.1 PPG over its last nine games and gets the worst FBS defense it has seen all season.
Duke is allowing 46.5 PPG in ACC play. Van Dyke should have a field day against this Duke secondary. Running back Jaylan "Rooster" Knighton will add balance in the run game and is a dynamic pass-catcher as well.
Duke has given up 45 points in each of its last five games. With Miami's team total at 44.5, I expect it to clear that line easily and approach 50 points.
