Miami vs. Pitt Odds
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 61 -115o / -105u | +290 |
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 61 -115o / -105u | -380 |
In an ACC Coastal matchup, this game features two teams on both sides of the spectrum.
Miami entered the season as a top-25 team with expectations that it could compete for an ACC title.
The Hurricanes haven't lived up to those preseason expectations as they enter this week with a 3-4 record and are in fifth in the ACC Coastal. They are 3-4 against the spread and have gone over in four games.
Pittsburgh was coming off of a 6-5 season, but it is now squarely among the ACC contenders.
Following their big-time win over Clemson, the Panthers sit at 6-1 for the season and lead the ACC Coastal. They're 6-1 ATS and have gone over in five games this year.
Miami Hurricanes
Miami Offense
While it hasn't been a dominant unit, Miami's struggles can't be blamed on its offense.
The 'Canes are averaging 32.1 points per game and 5.9 yards per play. They have an overall Success Rate of 39.5% and have scored 3.59 points per opportunity.
Injuries have plagued Miami's quarterback room. D'Eriq King is out for the season with a shoulder injury and expected backup, Jake Garcia, has missed time with an undisclosed injury.
That has forced freshman Tyler Van Dyke into action. Van Dyke is completing 58.8% of his passes for an average of 8.9 yards per attempt. He has thrown for nine touchdowns and just three interceptions.
As a team, Miami has a 40.2% Passing Success rate.
The Hurricanes haven't avoided injuries in the running back room either. Lead back Cam'Ron Harris is out for the remainder of the year with a knee injury and Donald Chaney Jr. is done, as well, after he went down early in the year.
With Harris and Chaney unavailable, Jaylan Knighton is handling the heaviest workload.
As a team, Miami has a 39% Rushing Success Rate. And it appears that a large part of its struggles go back to an offensive line that is allowing a 24.6% stuff rate and is only generating 2.5 Line Yards per attempt.
Miami Defense
Miami is allowing 30 points per game and 5.4 yards per play. It has allowed an overall Success rate of 43% and is generating Havoc on 17.7% of plays.
The big concern with this defense is that it is allowing opponents to average 5.0 points per opportunity.
Miami's defense is allowing opposing QBs to complete 60.1% of their passes at an average of 6.8 yards per attempt. The 'Canes have allowed a 40.4% Passing Success Rate and an average of 2.85 20-plus yard passes per game. They have defended 19 passes, but have only forced four interceptions.
The defensive line has been the lone bright spot. It is forcing a 21.3% stuff rate and has held opponents to 2.92 Line Yards per attempt.
But as a unit, the defense is allowing an average of 145.1 rushing yards per game and a 45.9% Rushing Success Rate.
Pittsburgh Panthers
Pitt Offense
Pittsburgh ranks fourth in points scored per game (45.3) and is averaging 6.6 yards per play. The Panthers have limited opponents to a 13.2% Havoc rate and have an overall Success Rate of 47.8%.
The key to their offensive success, however, is their ability to finish drives. They're averaging 5.33 points per opportunity.
Pittsburgh is averaging 350 passing yards per game, led by Kenny Pickett. Pickett is completing 68.9% of his passes for an average of 9.2 yards per attempt. He's thrown 23 touchdowns and just one interception.
As a team, Pittsburgh has a Passing Success Rate of 50.2% and is averaging 5.86 20-plus yard passes per game.
Pittsburgh is averaging 170.9 rushing yards per game. The Panthers have split their rushing attempts between multiple backs and as a unit, they're averaging 4.2 yards per rush. They have a Rushing Success rate of 45.2%
The offensive line has allowed a 17.7% stuff rate and is generating 3.1 Line Yards per attempt.
Injuries at the skill positions are worth watching before this game. Both Jordan Addison and Israel Abanikanda are questionable.
Pittsburgh Defense
Pittsburgh is allowing 19.6 points per game and 5.0 yards per play. It has allowed a 35.5% overall Success Rate and has generated Havoc on 20.9% of plays. Opponents are averaging just 3.32 points per opportunity.
Opposing QBs are completing just 54.7% of passes against Pittsburgh and they are averaging 6.56 yards per attempt. The Panthers have allowed a 36.1% Passing Success Rate and have allowed 2.86 20-plus yard passes per game.
The Panthers have forced seven interceptions and have defended 25 passes.
Pittsburgh is allowing 109.3 rushing yards per game at an average of 3.4 yards per attempt. It has allowed a 34.4% Rushing Success Rate.
The defensive line has forced a 16.7% stuff rate and held opponents to 2.595 Line Yards per attempt.
Miami vs. Pitt Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami and Pitt match up statistically:
Miami Offense vs. Pitt Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 103 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 126 | 16 | |
| Pass Success | 67 | 18 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 17 | 56 | |
| Big Play | 53 | 87 | |
| Havoc | 102 | 7 | |
| Finishing Drives | 93 | 33 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pitt Offense vs. Miami Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 54 | 93 | |
| Line Yards | 66 | 47 | |
| Pass Success | 7 | 50 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 12 | 97 | |
| Big Play | 24 | 61 | |
| Havoc | 9 | 84 | |
| Finishing Drives | 2 | 128 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 129 | 101 |
| Coverage | 108 | 52 |
| Middle 8 | 52 | 1 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 40 | 22 |
| Plays per Minute | 9 | 49 |
| Rush Rate | 49.9% (96) | 52.3% (83) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Miami vs. Pitt Betting Pick
Both the pro report and pro projections give an edge to Miami to cover the spread. Approximately 63% of the money has come in on Miami.
But Pittsburgh's ability to finish drives at an elite rate paired with Miami's struggles to get opponents off of the field is the reason I'm backing the Panthers.
This line is trending down from the 12.5-point open and at any number under 10, I'm backing the Panthers.
